Hey yo, what is going on, with the viewers of theeeeee tuuuuubee!
You better know who I am by now, but if you don’t let me introduce myself as Tyler,
the host of the youtube channel, that can make this nerdy thing called crypto pretty
time for Chico Crypto!
Ouch, what a rough end of the week it seems for the markets all around.
Bitcoin, there is no doubt about it in my mind now, is following the stock market.
The stock market dumped yesterday & bitcoin followed it down like a helpless puppy lost
in the world.
And the follow, is more clearly seen, pulling out the 5 day chart of the dowjones, and bitcoin.
Like literally so close to each other, if you layer them on top of eachother... it’s
laughable.
Sooooo, is it time to worry, is the euphoria ending?
And is the reality setting in?
Well, you guys better know that I foresee something nasty coming, since I started this
channel, I knew this decade, 2020 was the decade of radical change, and the collapse
of the power system called finance 1.0.
I’m sure some of you read this article, from the atlantic.
Shares a very similar outlook as mine regarding US banking, and is titled “ The Looming
Bank Collapse : The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity.
This time, we might not be able to save it” I’ve included the article if you want to
give it a read, but we are going to breakdown, why they believe we could be near the final
collapse, the destruction of finance 1.0 and the beginning of a new paradigm...which we
here at CC, believe will be powered by blockchain and crypto.
If you didn’t know, nothing got fixed after the 2008 financial crisis.
They learned far & few lessons back then, and the laws enacted to stop them from repeating
what they did, have ultimately failed to do so.
Back then, we all know now, the crash came down to home mortgages, hundreds upon billions
of dollars in home loans were packaged into securities called collateralized debt obligations,
CDOs.
Big banks, like Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, would now get liquidity in 2 ways...by providing
the loan to the homebuyer, and earning the interest & then by reselling the packaged
CDOs to other banks.
Win, win for those issuing, buuuut they started issuing willy nilly, risky vanilly.
To people that couldn’t afford the loans, and when the housing market took a hit, and
money stopped flowing in from the home buyers….the money stopped flowing in from everywhere,
and the big banks in the middle of it, they were royally foooked.
So the FED had to step in, and bailout those big boys with taxpayer dollars.
And it worked, it saved the big banks, it “saved” our economy...in some people’s
eyes, actually a very select few it saved, but a ton of people are sheep, and think a
good stock market equals better pay for them, rididididicolous
In actuality, the majority of Americans have been suffering since 2008….wealth overall
has been lost, and the gap between the rich elite and the bottom majority of Americans,
is growing wider day by day, year by year.
The scales are out of balance….and since I’m a Libra, I like to bring balance back
into this world.
Best way to do that is through education, so let’s educate on what the banks and our
government have done since 2008.
The government tried to pass reform, the Dodd Frank Act, which would stop banks from investing
in CDOs...but they decided, if they stop us there, why not just create the same thing,
but in a different arena...like instead of housing, in corporate debt?
This is called a CLO, or a collateralized loan obligation, and since 2008 bank demand
has shifted heavily towards these risky instruments.
Like a CDO, a CLO is a security made up of loans, but instead of for homes, it’s for
business and corporations.
So how big has this grown?
Well the CLO market is estimated to be bigger than the CDO market in it’s 2007 top...they
put estimates near 1 trillion dollars, with 130 billion of that being created since 2018.
So at least with mortgages, you were providing a home for americans...with CLOs, all they
are providing is more wealth for the rich.
You wanna understand why?
Well in July of 2019, almost a year ago, the FED put out an article titled “Who Owns
U.S. CLO Securities?” and in the article they give a primer on US CLOs...it says “The
typical U.S. CLO is structured as an offshore special purpose entity in order to benefit
from legal isolation of assets as well as from a favorable tax treatment….
Most U.S. CLOs are issued out of the Cayman Islands by a Cayman-resident primary issuer…
So what the batshit craziness is this, our FED is A OK with fatcats using the Cayman
islands to avoid taxes and you wanna know how exposed they were back then?
The article states...Our calculations based on the TIC data suggest that at end-2018 around
$457 billion (74%) of U.S. CLO securities were issued out of the Cayman Islands and
that of these Cayman-issues, $409 billion (89%) were held by U.S. investors at year-end
2018.
So do you understand why they did the “bailouts” now?
It was to save this offshore, CLO honeypot, which was on the brink of collapse...even
before the viral panic.
November 17th, 2019….an article came out of seeking Alpha, titled “Downgrades In
The CLO Market Leading To Higher Default Rates In 2020” and the summary states….1)Large
banks are highly exposed to CLOs.
2)Corporate bond market has been downgraded to mostly Triple BBB bonds.3) Triple CCC corporate
yields are rising and could spill over to BBB bonds…..
So this graph shows what he means pretty well, as most of corporate bonds are held in Triple
BBB rated….
Now, before this viral panic, the rules with corporate debt, CLOs were much different.
Central banks, they couldn’t buy junk bonds, as they were too risky….but, with economies
coming to a grinding halt, those business who took out loans, who were rated non junk,
BBB or higher...were about to slip into nasty junk dog poopie….
That is why the FED created the secondary corporate market credit facility.
Which allowed central banks including the FED, as we can see from the document to purchase
BBB- as of March 22nd 2020, which means they could have slipped even lower into the C’s
and the central banks can still buy them up.
And the danger in these, they are leveraged loans, which means the falls or gains are
always exacerbated….you guys know leverage in crypto right?
Well it’s just as freaking strong, if not stronger in the CLO market.
The Financial Stability Board talked about it just in December of last year in a research
article titled “Vulnerabilities associated with leveraged loans and collateralized loan
obligations”...and guess what they found….from the article “Roughly
21% of the estimated outstanding leveraged loans and 14% of CLOs are unaccounted for
(US$683 billion and US$106 billion respectively).
Unaccounted for?
What does that mean?
Well that means lost or disregarded...it is not present and there is no explanation for
what has happened to it.
Well that is what happens when that money is going through the Cayman Islands by the
way….
Who are the culprits?
Well from the FSB research piece….Both public and supervisory data62 indicate that banks’
exposure to leveraged loans and CLOs is highly concentrated in a limited number of global
systemically important banks….
Which Banks?
Well the GSIBs are listed here….JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, HSBC, Bank of America, Bank
of China, Barclays, BNB Paribas, Deustce, Goldman Socks, and 21 more…
Now the Atlantic article put together a great infographic, of the possible scenario of a
CLO tumble.
As we can see yellow is BBB, light blue is BB, blue is B, CC lower is pink, and default
is red.
As we can see before the panic the lower layer was the riskiest, while the triple A layer
was the least risky, and the lower layers shielded the top layers.
Bur right now that the lower layer is starting to default, and other CLOs are being downgraded.
And they show how if the current economic conditions persist or worsen, widespread defaults
could not only hit the lower layer, but the top AAA layers as well.
Now, I will tell you this is scary, this is going to be devastating, because the only
thing that is keeping our economy alive is the boomers, wall st., and 401ks which rely
corporations and business across America.
This goes out the window, the entire thing does & unfortunately it’s going to happen
in my opinion….and our precious BTC won’t be immune.
The next crash will no doubt see a significant amount of stonks & BTC liquidated to cover
whatever financial obligations the holders of those assets may have.
It’s a downward spiral, that will hit hard, and it will hit everything.
It will hurt on the surface, as it will seem there will be no way to recover.
But, I’ve been saying this for some time...it will be the blessing in disguise, the opportunity
to rise with finance 2.0.
Cheers, I’ll see you next time!