not seem the support is there.
Geoff: Further political states
-- stakes, we turn to our Monday
political team.
Lots to discuss, glad you're
both here.
Let's start with this protest
vote against Biden in Michigan.
They say it is not anti-biden, a
protest vote on humanitarian
grounds.
How do you see this playing out?
>> This will be interesting as
we go forward because in
Michigan we know that this group
in particular is aiming to get
10,000 people to vote
uncommitted and 10,000 is the
margin by which Donald Trump
beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, in
what was a big surprise on
election night.
It is both showing their
displeasure with what is
happening in gaza but also
saying, do not ignore us or our
concerns and do not take us for
granted.
When I was talking to folks in
Michigan over the weekend, a lot
of what is happening with this
frustration has been building
for longer than just the war in
gaza.
The sense that these communities
have been taken for granted by
Democrats, are not doing the
caring that they should do and
it is about the fact, in these
states, whether it is losing
voters in South Carolina who did
not vote for trump but voted for
Haley, or getting uncommitted
voters, these are the margins
that can determine if you are
going to lose.
It is for Biden a group of
voters that nationally are
worrisome in terms of keeping to
his coalition.
Particularly voters of color and
younger voters.
Geoff: How worried is the Biden
campaign?
>> They are saying they will
keep fighting for these voters.
That they will not give up on
their votes.
They point to numbers that say
10,000 is unambitious.
It is highly likely more than
10,000 people will vote
uncommitted.
Go back cycle after cycle, way
more than 10,000, 20,000 were
uncommitted, going back years.
The president does have a
problem.
The white house and Biden
campaign acknowledged there is a
significant group of voters that
is really upset.
The president is in a difficult
position because he has made a
calculation based on global
alliances and history, and his
experience and other things
related to Israel.
He held Netanyahu close
initially.
I watched him hug him on the
tarmac after October
7.
That worked well for Biden with
jewish voters who are also an
important constituency.
Also Biden thought it was the
right move politically.
Push for better policy outcomes.
Biden really wants a cease-fire
-- they will not use that term,
but a significant pause.
They want hostages back and for
this situation to move to a
better place for humanitarian
reasons and policy reasons.
It is a gaping sore for Biden
with key voters, younger voters
and voters of color.
Geoff: Nikki Haley finished 20
points behind Donald Trump.
She is still vowing to stay in
the race.
She raised $1 million the day
after the loss.
She lost the financial packing
of a super pac backed by the
Koch brothers, a powerful donor
network.
What is her strategy, amasses
many supporters?
>> That seems to be part of it
read when you talk to folks
involved or watching from the
periphery, there is a sense she
is enjoying this moments.
She is getting national
attention.
To me the biggest question is
whether she will endorse Donald
Trump.
Whether what we are seeing is a
movement to take away a
constituency from Donald Trump
and she will say, I am here to
tell these voters, the ones who
showed up for me, in November,
do not rally behind Donald
Trump.
That would be incredibly
significant.
We also know.
In Michigan the type of people
showing up for Nikki Haley are
those that have been
college-educated, suburban
voters.
We do not know that all of these
that voted for Nikki Haley were
considering voting for trump,
but that is why Michigan and
South Carolina are fascinating
because they highlight the
challenges these men have in
what will be a close con --
contest in the fall of keeping
every member of their coalition
on their team.
They cannot afford for them to
defect or vote third party.
Geoff: Looking at my notes, 40
9% of Republican caucus-goers
did not support Donald Trump in
Iowa, 46% in New Hampshire did
not vote for him.
And 40% in South Carolina
supported Nikki Haley.
What does that say about trump's
weaknesses as a candidate?
Tamara: Nikki Haley would say a
lot.
They are real, but the issue for
Republican voters and the
primary is, there is not an
alternative that is more popular
than former president trump.
Nikki Haley is not going to win
the primary.
Yes, there are real concerns
among Republicans about what
happens in the general election.
It is a big part of Nikki
Haley's stump speech.
That Biden holds better against
trump then against her.
The reality is, once former
president trump is the nominee,
there will be a lot of
consolidation.
Those 40% are Republican voters
who are going to return home.
Some share of them are not.
Some are Democrats voting and
other primaries and some are
never trump Republicans trying
to find a home.
It is not clear if the Biden
campaign will be able to
persuade them to vote for him,
or whether they will stay home,
or vote for Mike pence or Mickey
mouse.
Geoff: In the meantime Donald
Trump wants a leadership change
at the Republican national
committee, to install loyalists,
and potentially his daughter in
she is stepping down effective
March 8, after a super Tuesday.
What is the significance of
this?
Amy: Party is Donald Trump
and Donald Trump is the party
and this is the latest example
of this.
It is not that it is just his
daughter-in-law taking over, but
loyalists with his campaign will
be installed.
It is at the state party level,
loyalists running the party.
In some cases there is friction
between those loyalists and
others who have led to complete
paralysis in the state like she
can.
We also can look at this as a
reality check to what a trump
2.0 presidency would look like.
Whether it is at the RNC or
government positions are at the
white house, only those who are
the most loyal to trump will get
those positions.
In 2016, and when he was in the
white house in 2017, he was
working with the establishment.
The establishment now is more
trumpy than ever when you see
what congress looks like.
Those who have come in look more
like him then "Traditional
Republicans" before he was
elected.
Geoff: Mcdaniel put out a
statement, the RNC has
historically undergone change
when we have an -- our nominee
and we will respect that
tradition.
Donald Trump was trying to make
these changes before he was
nominated.
>> He has also stacked the deck
in a way it is inevitable he
will be the nominee.
He will go into California and
Michigan and he will get all the
delegates.
The math is totally in his favor
in part because of his sway over
various parties.
Geoff: It was designed that way.
>> It is by design.
Geoff: Thank you.
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