>> The world meteorological
organization issued a red alert
running today about -- alert
warning today about warming and
climate change saying 2024 is
shaping up to be another record
year.
One of the many worries about
how the plane is changing thanks
in part to human activity is the
record shattering warming of the
world's oceans.
>> I want to put up a graph that
shows how out of the ordinary
ocean temperatures are becoming.
This shows the average daily
surface temperatures of the
world's oceans.
The thin gray lines represent
one year and 79.
His last years readings in
Arndt.
2023 started out in the upper
end of normal but soon became a
record-breaking we hot year.
Here in red, is just the
beginning of this year.
The oceans are already in
uncharted territory.
So what is going on here?
John Abraham is a professor of
mechanical engineering at the
university of St. Thomas and is
part of an international
consortium of researchers who
monitor ocean temperatures.
Thank you so much for being
here.
Before we get into the why, are
you in this camp that is
genuinely alarmed at what is
going on?
>> That is a really good
question.
Behind the scenes, there are two
groups of scientists.
One group thinks what we are
seeing can be explained by
long-term global warming.
And what is called el niño.
There is another group who think
there might be another
ingredient.
There might be something we have
not detected.
I'm sort of in the middle.
The warming we are seeing this
past year is a little out of the
ordinary of what we would expect
with global warning and el niño
together.
Maybe something else is
happening but we don't know.
This is what makes scientists
excited and this is what makes
science great.
Would like to uncover these
question marks.
To be honest I'm on the fence.
>> Let's unpack that to on
climate change in particular, as
we warm the atmosphere, the
oceans do get warmer.
We know that is a well
documented fact to all Nido, --
a well documented fact.
Nino, that can warm the oceans
as well.
If you had to put these as a
percentage, are we principally
talking about climate change or
how do you apportion blame?
>> If you want me to quantify
the effect and this is just
off-the-cuff.
This is a rough estimate based
on my intuition.
There is about half global
warming and maybe a third of it
is el niño.
And the remainder, 20% or so is
a question mark.
The 20% could be some extra
global warming we had not
accounted for.
It could be something else.
The majority of this and the
reason we are setting records
every year is mobile warming.
As you pointed out, the
scientific term is bonkers year.
This is off the charts.
It is more than we would have
normally expected even within el
niño.
>> There is a couple other
factors I have read about being
possibly complicit here.
This you to volcanic eruption
that spent a ton of moisture
into the atmosphere.
Solar cycles.
Also the elimination of a lot of
pollution from shipping which
paradoxically, it is wonderful
for human health but it is
taking the umbrella off the
oceans which can warm the
oceans.
Are those factors you consider
as well?
>> They could be and some
scientists are considering
those.
I'm not sold.
The reason I'm not sold is we
are seeing an incredible amount
of heat in specific locations.
On a particular in the atlantic
ocean.
We are seeing other parts of the
planet that have lower surface
temperatures.
The patterns of warming we are
seeing don't jive with some of
the other options you mentioned.
They are under consideration by
my colleagues.
>> For people who might look at
the chart I showed and say you
are just using a narrow y-axis
and why do we care if there is
just a degree or two difference
in temperature in something as
colossal as the ocean?
Why do we care if the oceans are
arming global -- are warming
globally?
>> You said it.
The oceans are colossal.
A watched pot never boils.
It takes a lot of energy to heat
up water.
If that is true for a pot on
your stove, think about how true
it is for the ocean to cover 70%
of our planet.
The amount of heat has to go
into the oceans to raise their
temperature a degree celsius or
a degree fahrenheit is
astronomical.
A degree warming of the ocean,
that is a different world.
It is going to affect the
weather all over the planet.
Tremendous impacts to humans and
our society.
These numbers in terms of
temperature increases are really
astounding.
>> My colleague mentioned the
world meteorological association
issuing this red alert.
We ask people this often but I
wonder what your take on this
would be.
Given these findings, what is it
we ought to be doing as humanity
to try to address this?
>> That is the easy part.
We need to do a couple things
and we can do them with today's
technology.
We need to conserve technology.
Use energy more wisely.
Let's not waste the energy we
get out of fossil fuels.
Secondly, maximize our
development of clean and
renewable energy.
The great thing is green energy
is cost comparable to fossil
fuels.
In the olden days, if you put
solar panels on your house, that
was a mark of altruism.
Now it is a mark of fiscal
conservatism.
Clean energy is cheaper than
coal.
That has created an inflection
point in the scientific
community.
That is what gives us optimism.
There is no reason not to
maximize clean renewable energy.
Those things are the most
important things people can do
to change the trajectory we are
on.
>> John Abraham, professor of
engineering at St. Thomas
university.
Thank you for being here.
♪♪