throughout the night, we will be
turning to our panel of guests
for expert analysis --
they are Amy Walter of the cook
political report with Amy
Walter.
David brooks, columnist for the
New York Times.
Washington post columnist, Perry
bacon.
Marc short, who served as chief
of staff to former vice
president Mike pence.
And fas Shakir, who was the
campaign manager for Bernie
Sanders' 2020 presidential
campaign.
Hello to all of you, thank you,
we will be spending may be a
long night together, we will
learn more in the hours to come.
I want to kick off this evening,
Amy, and start with you -- what
are you watching for.
But also what is at stake in the
selection?
Amy: It's a good question,
because I think back to actually
my own first midterm election in
1994 and that was a real
realigning election, Democrats
had held the house for 40 years.
2006, if we start at that date,
the house has flipped three
times and it may potentially
flip a fourth.
We are getting so much change
over the course of these past 16
years and yet it doesn't feel
like our politics hasn't changed
much.
It hasn't impacted the way the
parties or our politics are
working.
We have had big events the last
two years.
Covid, Afghanistan, inflation
and the economy.
We have the roe V. Wade
decision.
We have a war raging in Ukraine
and yet our politics still seems
very parochial and just as
polarized.
The issue I think of what is
driving this election, I think
we will find inflation, the
economy, opinions about the
president become the most
important factors, and yet all
of those other big issues, maybe
in another era would have had a
tremendous impact on the outcome
of the selection, seem to be bit
players.
Judy: David brooks, what are you
thinking?
David: I have heard so many
analysis about why the the
electric has been tied in none
of them are convincing.
There is an ebb and flow of
elections but some things
gradually change across
elections.
One of them has been educational
sorting, people without college
degrees going to the GOP and
people with going to Democrats.
Democrats have tried to win back
some of those workers we will
see if it works.
I'm also looking at hispanic
voters.
Last couple of elections,
Republicans have done better
with hispanics, some polls show
Republicans accelerating those
gains.
They've been a reliable
democratic constituency, is that
becoming more divided?
Judy: In just a couple of
seconds, I'm going to ask the
rest of you, what are you
singing tonight?
Faiz: You talk about
working-class voters, that is
the major issue.
Our persuasion voters still out
there?
I think a lot of them are
working-class voters, people
making under $60,000 a year,
without a college degree, people
in Florida and Ohio could
determine tight elections.
And Democrats on that issue, how
do you do it?
You make a compelling economic
contrast.
Did they do enough?
I don't think they did.
If you kept a democratic
majority, what are you going to
deliver for working-class?
?
People we talked about
accomplishment but we did not
talk about what working-class
people could gravitate to, the
fight.
Marc: I think the issues that
have dominated the last several
months of the election cycle
have been inflation, border
issues, and crime in
inter-cities.
I think Republicans are on the
winning side of those issues.
I think one piece is lost, there
is a data point, 28 members
usually shift in a midterm, but
when it is one party control,
the number is significantly
higher because Americans like
divided government.
In 2020, there was so much
coverage of the presidential
election, it was lost that
Republicans picked up 15 house
seats a lot of the low hanging
fruit was already gathered.
>> January 6 and -- Gary:
Generally six and the midterm
elections are huge, that it
looks like we could see the
president's party lose some
seeds but not a whole lot, maybe
60 in the house.
The idea that January 6, sky
high inflation and roe V. Wade
did not -- about 90% of people
will vote for the same party
they always vote for.
I think the calcification has
stuck this kind of deep
polarization that doesn't move
no matter what.
What is amazing is how little
changes, where we all vote for
the same party all the time and
nothing shifts.
Gary: I think Kerry is right.
--Perry is right.
The generally six to may tried
over and over again to focus
people on January 6 and the
danger of election deniers and
the American people by enlarging
just aren't buying it.
In 2018, to go back and play
devils advocate, nobody did
count of how many democratic
candidates did not accept Donald
Trump as a legitimate president.
Gallup tells us that 56% of
Democrats across the country did
not accept him.
We didn't worry about that
election to nihilism in a think
the American people are saying
you know what, we are worried
about inflation and a poor
southern border than the men is
that these Republican candidates
supposedly pose to us.
Judy: We could spend a lot of
time tonight talking about what
should have been talked about on
the campaign trail.
David: And then people will talk
about what we talked about.
[Laughter]
Judy: Amy, we are coming down to
a lot of this conversation
tonight will be about what is
the messaging and what should or
could have been the messaging.
Any: Earlier this week -- Amy:
Earlier this week I was talking
to a Republican strategist who
said bottom line, you have to
play the hand you were dealt and
do the best you can with that
hand.
I think for Democrats, if we go
back to the beginning of 2021, I
think they thought they had an
economic message that was going
to work.
And it was going to be argument
in the campaign.
Got passcode, the economy
running hot thanks to us, who
poured another trillion dollars
of stimulus, no things to
Republicans.
But we are not talking about
that because voters said that is
fine, but thanks for the the
check that I am paying more for
groceries.
Judy: We will have a chance
through the night to pursue
every one of these points you
have made.