>> CLINT WATTS, NATIONAL
SECURITY ANALYST, APPRECIATE YOU
SHARING YOUR EXPERTISE WITH US.
GENERAL, LET ME LAND ON YOU
HERE.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE UKRAINIAN
ASK HERE OF BASICALLY ITS OWN --
IT WANTS ITS OWN SECURITY
TREATY, AND IT CERTAINLY -- THEY
WANT IT TO BE STRONGER THAN
NATO.
OBVIOUSLY, WE HAVE OTHER
TREATIES, SECURITY TREATIES
WE'RE A PART OF, BUT HOW WOULD
THAT WORK WITH NATO AND IS THERE
SOME INEVITABLE POTENTIAL TRIP
WIRES HERE?
>> WELL, THIS IS QUITE AN ASK.
CERTAINLY, I THINK FOR THE
UNITED STATES, AN IMPORTANT PART
OF IMPROVING UKRAINIAN SECURITY
WOULD BE FOR US TO HAVE OUR
STRATEGY FOR GREATER BLACK SEA
REGION.
SO MUCH OF THE CONVERSATION GOES
BACH TO UKRAINE AS IF IT'S AN
ISLAND SOMEWHERE, BUT IT'S IN A
REGION WHERE WE HAVE THREE NATO
ALLIES -- TURKEY, ROMANIA, AND
BULGARIA -- THERE'S HUGE
ECONOMIC POTENTIAL FOR THE
REGION AS A CONNECTOR BETWEEN
EUROPE AND EURASIA, SO A
LONGER-TERM RELATIONSHIP WITH
UKRAINE THAT IS NOT ONLY ABOUT
SECURITY COOPERATION BUT ALSO
DIPLOMACY AND ECONOMIC
INVESTMENT, THAT WOULD BE A PART
OF IT.
WE'VE DONE -- I THINK THE
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE HAS DONE A
GREAT JOB HELPING UKRAINE WITH
THEIR TRAINING AT BROVARY,
WORKING WITH OTHER ALLIES,
CANADIANS IN PARTICULAR, HELPING
UKRAINE OVER THE YEARS.
BUT A LONGER-TERM STRATEGY FOR
HELPING THEM MODERNIZE AND GET
WHERE THEY WANT TO BE, AFTER
WHAT I'VE SEEN IN LAST FIVE
WEEKS, THE RUSSIANS SHOULD BE
LOOKING FOR A SECURITY GUARANTEE
AGAINST UKRAINE, THE UKRAINIAN
FORCES HAVE PERFORMED SO WELL.
>> RIGHT.
>> I THINK HELPING THEM CONTINUE
TO MODERNIZE THEIR MILITARY AND
ALL THEIR DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS IS AN IMPORTANT
PART OF THIS.
>> GENERAL, I GUESS I WANT TO GO
BACK TO THIS IDEA THAT UKRAINE
WANTS A SECURITY AGREEMENT BUT
CAN'T JOIN NATO, WANTS A
SECURITY AGREEMENT THAT INCLUDES
THE UNITED STATES.
AS FAR AS VLADIMIR PUTIN IS
CONCERNED NATO IS THE UNITED
STATES.
>> YEAH.
>> SO THIS FEELS LIKE A
DISTINCTION WITHOUT MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE.
>> I THINK THAT THE UNITED
NATIONS HAS A ROLE TO PLAY HERE,
AND THEN I ALSO THINK ABOUT THE
DAYTON PEACE ACCORD WHERE THE
ALLIANCE WAS ABLE TO IMPLEMENT
AN AGREEMENT WITH THE SECURITY
FORCES FROM MULTINATIONAL
SECURITY FORCES.
NOW, RUSSIA PROBABLY WOULD NOT
BE REAL KEEN ON A NATO
IMPLEMENTATION FORCE LIKE WE HAD
AFTER DAYTON, ALTHOUGH WE DID
HAVE RUSSIAN TROOPS AS PART OF
THE I-4, THE IMPLEMENTATION
FORCE.
SO THERE'S A MODEL IF THERE'S A
MANDATE AND AN ACTUAL PEACE TO
BE IMPLEMENTED.
THE PROBLEM, OF COURSE, WITH ANY
OF THESE THINGS IS THAT IF IT
DOESN'T RESPECT UKRAINIAN
SOVEREIGNTY, IF ITLLOWS THE
LINES TO HARDEN, THEN RUSSIA
ENDS UP BEING REWARDED FOR THEIR
ADEPRESSION.
AND I THINK OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
NOT THE DIRECTION THAT WE WOULD
WANT TO GO.
THERE HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF
ARRANGEMENT WHERE WE CAN HELP
THEM MILITARILY WITH TRAINING
AND COOPERATION, BUT I DON'T SEE
HOW WE CAN GET PAST THE HURD
THAT WILL YOU JUST TALKED ABOUT.
>> YOU CAN'T IMAGINE -- YOU
CAN'T IMAGINE US AGREEING TO
WHAT UKRAINE WANTS IF RUSSIA
STEPS BACK FOOT, YOU KNOW, COMES
BACK INTO UKRAINE THE NEXT TIME,
BASICALLY WE HAVE AN ARTICLE
5-LIKE COMMITMENT, WHICH IS WHAT
THEY'RE LOOKING FOR TO JOIN WITH
THEIR DEFENSE.
YOU THINK THAT WOULD BE PROBABLY
A BRIDGE TOO FAR FOR US?
>> ACTUALLY, I THINK WE COULD DO
IT.
YOU KNOW, WE HAVE ALLOWED
OURSELVES TO BE DETERRED BY
RUSSIAN THREATS WHEN, IN FACT,
THE REALITY IS I THINK IT'S A
VERY, VERY LOW LIKELIHOOD THEY
WOULD USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
I THINK IT'S A VERY LOW
LIKELIHOOD THEY WOULD EMPLOY A
NUCLEAR WEAPON.
WE HAVE ALL THE ADVANTAGES OF
THE ALLIANCE, AND WE HAVEN'T
BEEN USING THEM.
TOO MUCH TALK ABOUT AVOIDING
ESCALATION WHEN.
IN, WE HAVE THE ADVANTAGES AND
WE SHOULD BE POURING IT ON RIGHT
NOW IN UKRAINE, HELPING UKRAINE.
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT WINNING
ACTUALLY, NOT AVOIDING
ESCALATION.
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT WINNING
AND GIVING THE UKRAINIANS THE
ABILITY TO CONTINUE THE
PRESSURE.
DON'T LET RUSSIA START DIGGING
IN IN THEIR NEWLY GAINED
TERRITORY.
>> IT'S INTERESTING YOU SAY WE
HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT
WINNING.
IT FEELS AS IF WE'RE IN A
SITUATION WHERE PUTIN ISN'T
GOING TO -- HE NEEDS TO COME
AWAY WITH SOME WIN HERE, AND I
DON'T SEE HOW THE UKRAINIAN
PEOPLE FEEL COMFORTABLE GIVING
HIM A WIN.
IF ANYTHING, AS I'VE SAID, IF
YOUR NEXT-DOOR NEIGHBOR TRIES TO
KILL YOU, HOW ARE YOU SUPPOSED
TO LIVE NEXT DOOR TO THAT
PERSON?
BECAUSE A POLICE OFFICER CAME
AND SAID NO, NO, NO, YOUR
NEIGHBOR IS NOT GOING TO DO IT
AGAIN.
>> WELL, I DON'T THINK I'M
WILLING TO ACCEPT THE
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT PUTIN
NEEDS TO HAVE A WIN OF SOME
SORT.
I MEAN, HONESTLY AT THIS POINT,
HE HAS -- I DON'T KNOW THAT HE
DESERVES SOME KIND OF AN
OFF-RAMP.
LOOK, I'M NOT A DIPLOMAT, AND
BEING ABLE TO GIVE THEM SOME
SORT OF A WAY TO BACK -- TO GET
OUT OF THIS MESS THAT THEY HAVE
CREATED ENTIRELY, I UNDERSTAND
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM.
BUT I THINK FRANKLY THE
SITUATION NOW HAS CHANGED TO A
DEGREE THAT WE HAVE ALL THE
ADVANTAGES.
UKRAINE IS GETTING THE MOMENTUM.
WE SHOULD NOT BE WILLING TO
ACCEPT ANYTHING SHORT OF AT
LEAST GOING BACK TO THE PRE-24
FEBRUARY LINE.
AND FRANKLY, PRESIDENT BIDEN
TALKED ABOUT IN WARSAW THE OTHER
DAY THAT THIS IS ABOUT DEMOCRACY
VERSUS AUTOCRACY.
WE NEED TO BACK THAT UP.
HE'S THE PRESIDENT AND HE'S
RIGHT.
AND I THINK WE NEED TO USE ALL
OF THE ASSETS WE HAVE, NOT JUST
MILITARY, TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
BACK AND HELP RESTORE ALL OF
UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY.
>> SO YOU'RE GETTING AT
SOMETHING THAT I'VE ASKED
OTHERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR FOOT
ON PUTIN'S THROAT RIGHT NOW IN A
WAY THAT WE HAVEN'T EVER HAD
BEFORE.
AND I ASSUME THAT -- YOU KNOW,
IS IT -- IT'S GOT TO BE TEMPTING
TO SAY, HEY, WE CAN KEEP THIS UP
ANOTHER SIX MONTHS, HE MAY NOT
SURVIVE.
>> 1 APRIL IS A BIG DAY.
ON THIS DAY ON FRIDAY, 130,000
RUSSIAN FAMILIES ARE SUPPOSED TO
SEND THEIR SON TO REPORT AS
CONSCRIPTS.
THIS IS THE NORMALLY SCHEDULED
NEXT WAVE OF CONSCRIPTION FOR
THE RUSSIAN ARMY.
I HOPE THERE IS A MASSIVE
INFORMATION EFFORT UNDER WAY.
I KNOW THAT THERE IS IN SOME
PLACES TO REACH THOSE FAMILIES
AND SAY, REALLY, DO YOU WANT
YOUR SON TO BECOME CANNON FODER
IN PUTIN'S ARMY TO FIGHT AND DIE
IN UKRAINE THE WAY THOUSANDS OF
RUSSIAN SOLDIERS HAVE ALREADY
DIED?
IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT PROVIDING
JAVELINS TO UKRAINE.
THIS IS ABOUT PROVIDING TRUTHFUL
INFORMATION TO RUSSIANS SO THAT
THEY UNDERSTAND.
NO MAT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT
SIX MONTHS, THERE IS ZERO
POSITIVE OUTCOMES FOR RUSSIA.
NOTHING GOOD IS GOING TO COME
OUT OF ALL THIS, SO I THINK THE
TOP PRIORITY CANDIDLY IS NOT
GETTING A CEASE-FIRE, THE TOP
PRIORITY IS MAKING SURE THAT