>>> SO ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW,
FOUR STATES WILL DROP OUT OF THE
PROGRAM THAT OFFERS EXTRA
BENEFITS TO PEOPLE WHO LOST
THEIR JOBS BECAUSE OF THE
PANDEMIC.
OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, A TOTAL
OF 25 STATES WILL STOP
DELIVERING THE EXTRA $300 A WEEK
OFFERED BY THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT AND MORE STATES COULD
DECIDE TO FOLLOW SUIT.
THIS COMES AS THE GOVERNMENT
REPORTED TODAY THAT EMPLOYERS
ADDED 559,000 NEW JOBS LAST
MONTH ALONE.
AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL
TO 5.8%.
JOINING US NOW WITH MUCH MORE ON
ALL OF THIS, ALI VELSHI, HOST OF
"VELSHI" ON MSNBC.
GOOD TO SEE YOU, MY FRIEND.
A LOT OF INTERESTING TAKES ON
THIS, I WOULD LIKE TO GET YOURS.
HOW MUCH OF A ROLE IS THE CUTOFF
OF BENEFITS IN WHAT SEEMS TO BE
BY MOST ESTIMATES A MODEST JOB
RECOVERY AND WHAT COULD IT MEAN
FOR HIRING DOWN THE LINE?
>> THIS IS AN INTERESTING
QUESTION, MY FRIEND.
WE’LL KNOW THE END OF THIS
EXPERIMENT BY THE END OF JULY
BECAUSE EVERYBODY WILL HAVE CUT
IT OUT BY THEN.
LET’S LOOK AT THE MAP OF THE
STATES THAT ARE CUTTING OFF THE
ENHANCED BENEFIT.
IT’S $300 A WEEK.
IF YOU EARN THAT IN ADDITION TO
THE $300 STATE BENEFIT, YOU’RE
GETTING $600 A WEEK, WHICH BY
THE WAY IS EXACTLY $15 AN HOUR.
MOST SERVICE WORKERS DO NOT EARN
$15 AN HOUR IN THIS COUNTRY.
THE ARGUMENT IS AS LONG AS THESE
ENHANCED BENEFITS ARE OUT THERE,
FOLKS ARE TAKING THE BENEFITS AS
OPPOSED TO WORKING.
WE’LL KNOW MORE ABOUT HOW TRUE
THAT IS, BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT
THE STATES CUTTING OFF THE
ENHANCED BENEFITS, YOU’LL FIND
THAT BY JULY 19th OR SO, MOST OF
THEM WILL BE DONE.
FOR THE UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT WE
GET AT THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER, WE’LL KNOW HOW IT
FARED FOR AUGUST AND WE’LL KNOW
WHETHER PEOPLE ARE STAYING HOME
OR NOT FOR OTHER REASONS THAN
THE ENHANCED BENEFITS.
THERE’S PROBABLY SOME TRUTH TO
IT BECAUSE YOU CAN’T GET 15
BUCKS AN HOUR WORKING AT MOST
BARS AND RESTAURANTS.
THERE ARE LOTS OF COMPLICATED
REASONS WHY THAT’S GOOD OR BAD
BUT IT MAY BE HAVING SOME EFFECT
ON THE FACT THAT THE JOB
CREATION RATE WAS NOT AS BIG
LAST MONTH AS IT SHOULD BE.
ONE THING I ALWAYS WANT TO
REMIND PEOPLE, DON’T PAY TOO
MUCH ATTENTION TO THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ON A MONTH TO
MONTH BASIS BECAUSE THE
DENOMINATOR CHANGES.
SO IT’S NOT THAT IMPORTANT THAT
IT’S 5.8% AS OPPOSED TO
SOMETHING HIGHER.
>> LET’S PULL OUT AND LOOK AT
THE BIG PICTURE HERE FOR A
MOMENT.
YOU HAD MAY’S JOBS REPORT, IT
WAS MUCH BETTER THAN APRIL’S
REPORT.
BUT THE U.S. STILL HAS 7.6
MILLION FEWER JOBS THAN IT DID
BEFORE THE PANDEMIC.
THAT’S THE TOTAL NUMBER.
WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT THE
OVERALL STATE OF THE U.S. JOBS
MARKET?
>> INCREASING, GOING UP IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION.
SO FOR MOST PEOPLE OUT THERE
WATCHING, WHAT DO THEY CARE
MOSTLY ABOUT?
THAT’S THE PATTERN OF JOB LOSSES
OVER THE LAST YEAR.
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT AVERAGE
HOURLY EARNINGS.
THAT’S THE THING MOST PEOPLE
CARE ABOUT.
IF UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW, YOUR
EARNINGS GENERALLY GO UP.
WE’VE SEEN OVER THE LAST YEAR
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ACTUALLY
GOING UP.
THIS IS A BIT OF A TUG-OF-WAR.
STEPHANIE RUHLE WAS TALKING
ABOUT THIS EARLIER TODAY, IT’S A
TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN EMPLOYERS AND
EMPLOYEES.
EMPLOYEES ARE HOPING THAT
EMPLOYERS WILL PAY MORE MONEY TO
GET THEM TO WORK.
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT WHO IS
HIRING RIGHT NOW.
THE BIGGEST GAIN WAS IN LEISURE
AND HOSPITALITY, HOTELS, BARS,
RESTAURANTS.
EDUCATION SAW A VERY BIG GAIN,
THAT MAKES SENSE, STUDENTS ARE
GETTING BACK TO SCHOOL.
HEALTH CARE HAS NEVER LOST JOBS,
IT ALWAYS GAINS JOBS.
WE SAW A DROP-OFF IN
CONSTRUCTION AND RETAIL.
BUT WHAT YOU SEE BY SECTOR, I
WANT TO GO TO HIRING BY SECTOR
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO.
WE’RE STILL DOWN, 2.5 MILLION
JOBS IN LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY.
WE’RE DOWN 509,000 JOBS IN
MANUFACTURING, 400,000 IN
RETAIL, 500,000 IN HEALTH CARE,
225,000 IN CONSTRUCTION.
ALL OF THAT STUFF HAS GOT TO
COME BACK.
MY GENERAL OPINION, AYMAN, IS
THAT IT WILL COME BACK.
WE’LL HAVE A FULL RECOVERY.
BUT SOME ECONOMISTS SAY IT WILL
BE 2022, SOMETIME NEXT YEAR
BEFORE WE GET THERE.
>> ALI VELSHI, ALWAYS A
PLEASURE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
CATCH "VELSHI" TOMORROW AT 8:00
A.M. EASTERN ON MSNBC.