Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
is backfiring for China
Because Japan is talking about nukes
Welcome to China Uncensored, I’m Chris Chappell.
The Chinese Communist Party is pissed. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was supposed to be
a test. Ukraine was supposed to quickly fall. The West wasn’t supposed to stand up for Ukraine. And
Russia’s successful invasion was supposed to clear a path for an eventual Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Instead, Ukranians fought tooth and nail against Russian troops.
The West actually united against Russia.
And now, Japan is talking about getting nukes.
How are those things connected?
Well, here’s what Shinzo Abe said.
Abe is Japan’s former Prime Minister, and currently an influential member of
the National Diet, which is Japan’s legislature. He pointed out that “In NATO, Germany, Belgium,
the Netherlands and Italy take part in nuclear sharing, hosting American nuclear weapons.”
NATO is a security alliance formed after World War II.
It was initially formed to protect Europe and North America against the Soviet Union.
In recent years, NATO has shifted their focus to Russia, and even China.
So guess who doesn’t like NATO?
But Shinzo Abe’s point was that NATO countries host US nuclear weapons. So with China constantly
threatening to invade Taiwan, sending more and more fighter jets to the area,
doesn’t it make sense that Japan, too, should host US nuclear weapons?
This is not what China wanted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It wanted a pathway to invade Taiwan, not for Japan to get nukes!
Shinzo Abe has been talking a lot about Taiwan. He’s been saying both
the US and Japan must defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
And he makes a good point. Japan’s westernmost inhabited island, Yonaguni,
is just under 70 miles away from Taiwan.
In his recent speech, Abe said, “If [China] were to secure wide air superiority,
it would also cover Japan’s airspace. [China] would conduct operations in and above the waters
too, so this would affect Japan’s territorial waters, or at least our exclusive economic zone.”
In other words, “A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency.”
So why not have a few US nuclear weapons kicking around?
After all, that’s what NATO does to deter Russia.
The Chinese regime is losing its mind over this.
My favorite Chinese state-run media, the Global Times, says “Alert!
Abe's remarks are unlocking Japan's militarism.”
“Japanese right-wing politicians are more fanatical about nuclear weapons
than politicians in any other country in the world, and today,
they have evolved into a perverted psychology that borders on distortion.”
“The shame of the defeated country and the desire for revenge, though always suppressed,
have constantly lurked in their blood, eager to break free from the shackles.”
You see, while you or I might think about Japan being the only country in the world that’s been
nuked, a country that’s been rebuilt after World War II as a peaceful democracy—that’s
not how the Chinese Communist Party frames things.
They frame it as since Japan was the military aggressor in World War II, and they were defeated,
Japan is just waiting for the chance to attack again.
Which really says a lot about the Chinese Communist Party’s worldview.
If you’ve been defeated, you must secretly thirst for revenge.
Yes, Japan is the real aggressor in Asia, so of course they shouldn’t have nukes.
Never mind that China is constantly harassing all of its neighbors,
threatening to conquer the democratic country of Taiwan,
and has been building up its own stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
But Abe isn’t just calling for the US to station nuclear weapons in Japan,
he’s also calling on the US to step up and actually promise to defend Taiwan.
“The U.S. takes a strategy of ambiguity,
meaning it may or may not intervene militarily if Taiwan is attacked.”
Abe says “It is time to abandon this ambiguity strategy. The people of Taiwan
share our universal values, so I think the U.S. should firmly abandon its ambiguity.”
However, it doesn’t look like the US will be doing that anytime
soon. Senior figures in the Biden Administration have said they’re
sticking with strategic ambiguity. Hey, at least they’re not ambiguous about that.
The Biden administration is showing Taiwan more support,
like sending former defense officials to visit the island.
But it would probably be more useful to send some active duty Marines to Taiwan.
As for the nukes, there is opposition to that idea within Japan.
Currently, Japan is under America’s nuclear umbrella and protection.
And Japan has followed the three non-nuclear principles,
“That it will not produce or possess nuclear weapons or allow them on its territory.”
And Japan’s current Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida,
rejected Abe’s call for even a debate on the nuclear sharing idea. He said,
“It is unacceptable given our country’s stance of maintaining the three non-nuclear principles.”
Prime Minister Kishida, by the way, represents a constituency in Hiroshima. Yes, that Hiroshima.
But Abe still has a lot of influence. He’s the “leader
of the biggest faction in Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic party.”
And with everyone making some pretty uncomfortable comparisons between China and Russia,
I wouldn’t be surprised if discussions about
how to deter the Chinese Communist Party become a lot more frequent now.
By the way, it’s really hard for us to talk about everything going on with Ukraine
because YouTube has been demonetizing us anytime we show footage of Russia’s invasion.
Just like they did when we were in Hong Kong covering protests.
I guess YouTube doesn’t like us making authoritarian regimes look bad.
But the reason we can keep showing footage like this
is because even when YouTube demonetizes us, we have the support of fans like you
on the crowdfunding website Patreon and our exclusive social media platform on Locals.
Just a dollar an episode from our viewers is the difference between keeping this show going and
cancellation. The links to both are below. And as a thank you for supporting the show,
I’ll answer your questions at the end of these episodes.
Today’s question comes from Growler on Locals. “You have a wonderful show Chris.
Is China going after Taiwan now with the Russian invasion of Ukraine??
That really is the big question. China is definitely watching and
learning lessons from Ukraine. Now, one thing you can say about
the Chinese Communist Party is that they’re good at playing the long game.
Especially Chinese leader Xi Jinping. He is not a rash individual.
So no matter how the invasion of Ukraine goes down, I never
really thought China would rush to immediately
invade Taiwan. They’ll take their time to digest what they learned from the Russian invasion.
But I think they’re probably surprised at how badly the invasion has gone for Russia so far.
It's still ongoing as of when I’m recording this, but it's clear that no matter how it ends,
Russia has at least lost the narrative battle. And its invasion of Ukraine is
having some far-reaching consequences, especially economically. I’d imagine the
Chinese regime sees all this and is probably reconsidering its strategy for invading Taiwan.
Thanks for your question and your support, Growler.
And thank you for watching. If you’d like to join our Locals community,
head over to chinauncensored.locals.com
Once again I’m Chris Chappell, see you next time.