A major transition is happening within the automotive industry.
Internal combustion engine vehicles are slowly being replaced by electric powered vehicles.
And like any major controversial topic there are essentially 3 sides.
The ones that are for the change, the ones against it and the ones that simply don’t
care.
Here’s the thing, what reasons are people truly looking at to form their opinion?
Is it what they hear from uninformed family members or friends, or maybe it’s from biased
media sources?
Either way there are details that are always left out, ones rarely talked about.
So how fast is this wave of electric vehicles coming?
Not as fast as one may think, well at least not here in the United States.
In 2018, out of the 17million vehicles sold, only 1-3% were electric, and at no surprise
the Tesla Model 3 lead the pack with 138K units sold.
Of course the overall number for year 2019 will be higher but don’t expect it to be
drastically different.
Quarter one electric vehicles sales compared to 2018 only was up 10%.
So if EVs are the future then why the slow push?
Let’s put it like this, it’s not that easy.
For one, most large auto manufacturers are hesitant to go all in and take such a big
risk.
They would rather just wait for the competition to take the leap, analyze their success and
then follow suit.
Perfect example is the big strive VolksWagen is taking towards the EV game.
Consider this a way to redeem themselves after enduring a 30 billion dollar hit in legal
actions, buy back programs and penalties after admitting to rigging the emissions of millions
of diesel vehicles.
Volkswagen has a new mission now, it’s electric or bust.
They are spending 60 billion on battery cells as they push hard to electrify all 300 models
in their range by year 2030.
And for those that are confused about the 300 models number, keep in mind that they
include other auto manufacturers that are under the Volkswagen Group umbrella such Audi,
Porsche and Lamborghini.
Imagine that, an all electric Lamborghini Aventador, from a V12 to a V0.
I’ll tell you this, if there is one company that can overtake Tesla, that would be Volkswagen
group because of their experience with producing cars.
Another reason EVs aren’t taking over as fast as one may want, is the lack of infrastructure.
Gasoline stations have existed for over 100 years, dating back to the first one being
built in 1905 in St Louis, Missouri.
To put it into perspective there around 150K public gas stations in the US vs just 20K
charge stations.
Well, Cristian you don’t need as many charge stations since most people will charge their
EVs at home.
HMMM, That’s Partially true, Let’s say you live in a house and own a Tesla, ideally
you can you can get a NEMA 14-50 Outlet that can fully charge the vehicle in as little
as seven hours, in other words overnight.
Cool.
But what about the people live in apartments, for instance the urban parts of NY, where
many cars are forced to park on the side of the road.
What is their charging solution when it comes to owning an EV?
What do you expect them to do, Idk maybe throw a long extension cable out their window and
plug it in?
Let’s just say that hypothetically doing that was a legitimate option..
Plugging an EV to a common home 110 volt outlet will charge an EV a MEASLY 2-4 miles of range
per hour!
Guys That’s 16-32 miles on an 8 Hour charge!
That’s 55-110 hours, to fully charge an EV!
In other words, most people that live in apartments will be dependent on charging stations, unless
you’re one of the lucky few that live in a complex that provide them as a perk.
Anywho going back to the lack of infrastructure, there are challenges in place when it comes
to adding more charging stations.
Regulatory and permitting issues, even coordination is a must with local utilities to make sure
the charging station can get all the power it needs.
And guys I want you guys to understand that in no way am I trying to put electric vehicles
down, but more trying to dig deep and open our minds when it comes to the future of electric
vehicles.
So one thing that is almost always brought up among people that want to make the switch
to electric, is the cost of buying and owning one.
Now this is a very, VERY tricky area.
Many say the reason they don’t make the switch from Internal combustion engine vehicles
to electric ones is because of the price difference.
Electric cars on average are more expensive to buy, partly due to the cost of lithium
ion batteries.
But not for long, battery competition is increasing rapidly, bringing down the cost.
Eventually it’ll cost less to make an electric powered vehicle, some say that could happen
as early as year 2022!
Optimistic if you ask me, but doable I would say.
But there is one thing that really concerns me, and that is electricity itself.
Many argue that it’s cheaper than gasoline, so you’ll save more money.
Those people that point are right, electricity is much cheaper than gas right now, keywords
right now.
According to websites like Alliance of Auto Manufacturers, Electric vehicles only compromise
2% of all car sales in the US in 2018.
So of course with that low demand prices of electricity will be low, but let me ask the
following, what happens when demand for electricity rises as it’s bound to eventually happen?
What will happen is basic economics, as demand goes up higher than supply the price follows
in the same direction.
And as demand goes up for electricity guess what happens to fuel, it goes down.
Interesting because if there is less sales for gas which include taxes to maintain the
roads we drive on, what happens then?
Those taxes have to carry over somehow right?
Demand for electricity and EVs goes up, we introduce more burning of coal.
Yes there are other ways of producing electricity but coal burning accounts for more than 38%
of electricity production globally, and 60% in China!
More coal burning = more emissions.
Seems a bit counter productive.
But hey Maybe everything that I’m saying may not be the case, only time will tell.
Let’s talk about a topic that I can greatly benefit from, overall maintenance and reliability.
As many of you already know, I own a BMW and like many cars they are complex machines with
lots of wear and tear parts that need to be addressed at one point or another.
Here’s where EV’s benefit, especially when it comes to the long run game.
Sure they cost most more upfront when buying them, but eventually over the years they become
far less expensive to own.
EVs have much less moving parts, things like frequent oil changes, filter replacements,
periodic tune ups, and exhaust system repairs, to the less frequent component replacement,
such as the water pump, fuel pump, and alternator are a non factor.
Essentially the an EV only has one major moving part and that is the engine.
Sounds like a win, but wait a minute, something seems off.
More Evs, less moving parts, less maintenance required, less technicians needed to work
and service cars?
Do you see where this is going?
Massive job loss maybe, hmmmm.
Moving on.
Here’s something that concerns me and others may feel the same.
The overall safety when it comes to these large battery packs.
There have been reports of EV’s bursting into flames days after an accident!
Not seconds, minutes or hours, days!
Electric-vehicle battery packs are made of hundreds to thousands of battery cells, each
of which contains a flammable liquid electrolyte, any damage to them can cause a chemical reaction.
IDK maybe it’s just me but I feel like there are definitely risks when you store enough
energy to propel a two-ton car at 75 miles an hour for hundreds of miles.
Let’s switch gears and talk about Tesla for a sec, it’s only right to include them
in any discussion that involves EVs.
Even though they’ve struggled to profit significantly, they have been paving the way
and there is no trace of them slowing down.
Tesla now has a factory in China and is set to finish building one in Germany, Tisk Tisk
Tisk, Big German Giants better stop playing.
While you got these big players and like BMW, Mercedes and VW planning Tesla is doing!
Meanwhile the other American autocompanies are testing water, i mean, Ford surprised
us all, but not necessarily in a good way.
Seriously Ford, the Mustang Mach E?
Really?
Anyways it’s all a step in the right direction?
Right?
Idk.
Elon Musk's goal was to get the rest of the automotive industry to go electric, and honestly
it looks like it’s working.
Good Job Elon
I can easily talk about other commonly addressed EV topics like like range anxiety, crowded
charge stations, how resourceful it is to mine lithium and the problem with trying to
recycle the batteries being used on Evs but there are plenty of articles and videos doing
that already.
My goal for this video was not to pick sides but more so to dig deeper in the what the
future of EVs can bring us.
Surely I have more to say but didn’t want this video to drag on, but you never know
maybe I’ll make a follow up video if a good portion of you guys enjoy this one.
Feel free to leave any and all thoughts in the comment section below.
As always thanks for watching, till next time.