According to official government statistics, Iran is 99.38% Muslim.
A new survey, however, suggests the true number is closer to 38% than to
99. Stay tuned as a I delve into the shocking reality of religion – or lack thereof – in Iran.
A secular organization called the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran,
or GAMAAN, recently released a survey of some 40,000 Iranian citizens, focusing
on their religious beliefs. I'll get to the findings in a minute, but first I want to
say a few words about their methodology. I do this because one, I'm a data analyst
so this is my area. And two, because the results are so different than what one would expect
that we need to understand why no previous survey saw this coming.
Over a two week period in late June 2020, GAMAAN surveyed approximately 50,000 people
using what is called snowball sampling. This is different from a typical random sample survey
that you may be familiar with. In snowball sampling, participants are asked to identify
other potential participants, the name deriving from the ever growing size of the sample
as more and more people are recruited. This technique is often used in populations that
otherwise would be difficult or impossible to identify, due to closed or ostracized populations.
A classic example is prostitutes. You can't just ask people at random if they're prostitutes, as
everyone will say no. But if you start with some known prostitutes who recruit
others into the survey, all will have a sense it is safe to be honest.
So the advantage of this method is it allows illegal, or socially unacceptable, views to
be captured, such as leaving Islam in a country where doing so is potentially punishable by death.
The downside, of course, is that the sample is not random which makes projection to the
total population tenuous. GAMAAN took a number of steps to try to counteract
that problem. They used exclusively social media, where reach is easier than in real life,
started different chains on five different social media outlets,
posted the survey in a large number of diverse groups, and weighed the sample they obtained
based on demographics matched to census data and, importantly, political participation.
Additionally, simple questions with constant answers were used to screen out people just
checking boxes at random, and responses from outside of Iran were discarded. This left 39,981
valid responses. After weighing they then cross checked the derived percentages with known data,
such as employment rate, and estimated the 95% confidence interval at +/- 5%
of the survey numbers for the adult, literate population of Iran.
I took a look at the raw data and the most notable discrepancies in the sample population
were an over representation of people with higher education and an under representation of the rural
population. The two are likely related and people may have also overstated their education. This
could suggest that even those in the lesser education categories have more education that
the average person in that category. This actually isn't as significant as it sounds,
however, as there was only modest difference between demographic groups on questions that
were broken down in the published results and weighing should mostly correct for this.
Based on the publicly available data, it appears the survey is about as accurate
as possible given the inherent difficulties of surveying a highly closed society
like Iran. The numbers shouldn't be taken as precise, but as rough estimates,
plus or minus 5% for the larger numbers, as GAMAAN says. This level of accuracy is certainly
more than sufficient to show the government numbers are utter nonsense, as we shall see.
Thanks for sticking with me through that boring, but important, bit. Let's dive into the survey
results, starting with the top line: Just 32% of the population identified as Shia Muslim,
compared to the official number of 90%. An additional 5% identified as Sunni,
3.2% as Sufi, and a couple of tenths of a percent as minor sects or simply Muslim. That puts the
adult, literate population at just 41% Muslim. Fifteen percent of Iran is illiterate, and thus
not captured in the survey at all, but even if we make the highly unlikely assumption that group is
100% Muslim, that only brings the total population to 49.8% Muslim. So it appears less than half of
this 99% Muslim country actually believes in Islam. What does the other half identify as?
I'll get to that in a minute, but I wanted to take a quick look at some other survey questions first.
When asked how their religious beliefs have changed over time, 47% said they believe less now,
41% said their beliefs have stayed about the same, 6% said they believe more, and 6% said
they have changed religion. The phrasing of the options was a bit odd, for example:
“I've moved toward atheism from religion.”
This has led some news stories to say “47% used to believe, but are now atheists,” but
the totality of answers, as well as the top line numbers we'll look at in a minute suggest that my
summary is more accurate – that people believe less, but have not necessarily become atheists.
The same basic trend was found across all demographic groups,
although it was slightly stronger among men, the younger generation, city dwellers,
and the more educated. The largest difference was generational – 52% of those aged
20 to 29 said they believe less vs. 41% of those aged 50 or more – but still not all that large.
It seems all parts of Iranian society are rapidly moving away from Islam.
Over 92% of the sample said they were raised in a theistic household,
with over 60% saying they considered their upbringing religious. This suggests Iran
did indeed used to be over 90% Muslim and that nearly all of the loses have come recently.
People are leaving Islam post haste. One might even say:
“it is going to become an avalanche.”
Over 59% of the country said they never pray, while just 27% pray 5 times a day,
as required by Islam. 68% said laws shouldn't be based on religious teachings,
compared to 14% said they must be in accordance with Islam and 4% who said the majority has the
right to pass religious laws. More than 70% of respondents said the government shouldn't
financially support religious institutions, 10% said all religious organizations should be
eligible for government aid, and just 3.4% said only Islamic organizations should be supported.
Opinion was split on the propagation of religion in public with 43% saying
it shouldn't be allowed and 41% saying all religions should be free to advertise publicly.
Just 4.3% said the right should be restricted to Islam, as it is currently in Iran.
Just over half of parents said they want their children introduced to different
religions in school and 56% said schools should not teach one religion as correct.
Just 23% of Iran personally believes in wearing the hijab and 15% support making in mandatory.
So, as you can see there is very little support for sharia law or an Islamic government in Iran,
as support for major tenants of a religious state run much lower than
even the percentage who identify as Muslim. Which gets us back to the top line. Are the
60% who no longer identify as Muslim all atheists now or is something else going on.
For the top line question - which view most closely matches your beliefs – just
8.8% selected atheism. Likewise, GAMAAN also asked if respondents believed in God
and more than 78% said yes. So where are the rest of the people if not in the atheist camp?
By far the biggest chunk – 22% – selected none, here meaning none of the options listed,
including atheism, match their current beliefs, not that they have no religious beliefs at all.
Another 5.8% selected “I don't know” and 7.1% selected generic spirituality.
It seems the population isn't sure what to believe.
This makes sense. People know they don't believe in Islam anymore, but they have never really
been introduced to any other options and so aren't sure if those options are viable or not.
This presents an ideal environment for Christian evangelization, minus the laws forbidding it
of course. Iran is fed up with Islam. Some people are ready to embrace atheism, but many
are not – they want another religious option and Christianity provides just that. I recently did a
video on how missionary organizations focused in Iran have seen a massive surge in interest
this year and suggested if that interest reflected a national trend, there could be
half a million converts to Christianity, this year alone. Understandably, some balked at
that figure since previous estimates suggested perhaps 50,000 converts a year in recent times.
However, GAMAAN's survey provides support for what missionary organizations are seeing,
as 1.5% of respondents identified as Christian. The survey is adults only, of course, but if
we include children at the same percentage, that would amount to 1.25 million Christians,
of which about 90% would be converts. That would also represent a jump of around half
a million in the last year, just as I suggested in my previous video.
Even more surprising than the surge of Christians, however,
was the 7.7% of the sample who identified as Zoroastrian. Have the people of Iran suddenly
been persuaded by the truth of these ancient teachings? Perhaps, but the figure would
represent several times more people than the estimated number of Zoroastrians in the entire
world. A much more likely explanation is that the majority of this figure represents people
who aren't ready to abandon religion, but want to have absolutely nothing to do with Islam.
As such, they have chosen to identify with the ancient Persian religion as a way of giving the
finger to the government and saying they want to go back to a pre-Islamic way of life. In
other words, the figure represents yet another example of Iranians saying “anything but Islam.”
Muslims love to point out the decline of Christianity in Europe and America, while failing
to note its significant growth in Africa and Asia of course, but it seems Islam is shrinking in Iran
far faster than Christianity is shrinking in even the worst Western nation. The avalanche of
apostasy has hit Iran and it only took a decade or so for half the country to leave it once it did.
Here's betting there will be a lot more of the same in the coming decades as the internet makes
the falsity of Islam apparent to all who are willing to think. To the Christians watching,
start preparing to pick up the pieces as the Lord opens unprecedented opportunities for evangelism
throughout the Muslim world. For everyone else, just sit back and enjoy the show.
Thanks for watching