What is your outlook for the global economy in 2011?
We continue to live in interesting times and 2011 will be no exemption.
The near term outlook is certainly for a continued two-speed recovery.
We're seeing a brightened outlook in North America and to some degree in China.
Commodity exporting regions are being raised in terms of the outlook.
Two-speed recovery though will continue to be the main feature through 2011,
really a demarcation between developed and the developing world.
Global recovery should pick up steam in the second half of the year and we're
beginning to see the worst hit sectors, housing and autos, rebound
and particularly consumer and business confidence improving without a doubt in
North America, to some degree in Europe.
US picking up steam, Europe and Japan improving in the second half but we'll see
emerging markets continue at three times the speed of the developing world and as
a result a two-speed economy.
The world in 2011 is exceedingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable.
How can organizations develop resilience in this new world of risk?
Complex economic environment, certainly a complex global environment as well.
How do we fare through this?
Visibility is key. Visibility to markets,
continuous understanding of market demand and growth is critical to navigate these waters,
nearly constant views at demand and growth and supply chain activity and cost.
It's interesting as we look at our customers we are starting to think about
forecasts on a weekly basis, almost a daily basis which tells you that the need
for information is insatiable right now as people try to make good decisions.
Flexibility is the second key to operating in this environment.
Operations, flexibility, planning allows you to create resilience to risk
and volatility.
Companies who are ahead of this are actively planning, thinking of future
scenarios, and using scenario planning as a large part of not only operations but
their strategic outlooks.
Stress testing those strategies against the number of unpredictable futures that
vary from industry to industry and from company to company is critical.
With the right information in sight, companies can make complex decisions even
in the face of uncertainty and excel in spite of a pretty unpredictable future.
As global growth shifts to the developing world, what should be the role of business
in developing countries?
As global investors, as global stewards of the future, we all have a pretty important
role as we work in an increasingly global environment.
The development momentum that companies bring to expanding economies is essential
for robust and sustainable growth.
Global investment means providing stable and expanding employment as well as
investing in skills in developing markets for employees we have there and others
that we partner with.
Businesses must support the expansion of transparent and accountable markets
and regulation that allows us to flourish in those environments, to invest and succeed
and see reasonable returns for that investment and risk.
The World Economic Forum has done some very interesting things in terms of
concerted efforts to bring companies together and partnering against
corruption.
HIS has been a very strong supporter of that initiative and I think this is the
kind of leadership that's critical to allow us an open global environment with
which to do business that supports industries, supports developing nations,
and local economies.
What would you consider the most important norms that an increasingly interdependent
yet diverse world needs to share? We're seeing variable response to the last
two years and we're seeing delayed impact and effects of the crisis of two years ago
unfold.
We must address imbalances, that variability in itself creates uncertainty
and volatility.
Developing nations with current account deficits need to begin rebuilding their
balance sheets. We see that in some developing nations as
well with regard to sovereign debt and debt levels that are unsustainable.
Nations with high saving rates may have an obligation to invest in developing
their own domestic markets beyond economic issues.
Education, transparency, and information are fundamental for building sustainable
futures for all of us on a global basis.
How can companies turn sustainability into a competitive advantage?
We realize now we're living in an increasingly connected global and common
environment.
There is very little that separates us any longer that will only accelerate in the
future.
Resources are key to this. Stress on resources and usage on a global
basis, access to water, hydrocarbon-based energy issues are global.
Developing economies, growth, and population are also stressing resources
locally and will increasingly stress them globally.
We are seeing unparalleled progress in science and technology, medicine,
and communication and these are bridges from where we are to where we need to be.
Information, understanding, visibility in resource demand and usage and impact are
key not only for local effective planning but for us as business leaders and global
enterprises to plan effectively and manage effectively.
For example, in 2010 we opened our first LEED Gold certified office in Calgary at
a reduced operating cost per square foot.