COMMIT
>> COULD THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION HAVE A RARE
CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY WITH
NORTH KOREA?
RIGHT NOW THAT DESPITE AN
INCREASINGLY OMINOUS PUBLIC
ATMOSPHERE, CREATE WATCHERS
ACTUALLY SEE A MOMENT OF
OPPORTUNITY, FLEETING MONK
PERHAPS AT HAND AFTER A FLURRY
OF ACTIVITY IN THE FIRST HALF OF
THE YEAR, THE PACE OF NUCLEAR
AND MISSILE TEST BY NORTH KOREA
HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY IN
RECENT WEEKS.
YOU SEE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR ONE OF THE SCIENCE?
>> IT STARTS WITH WHAT YOU
MENTION, A SLOW DOWN SINCE THE
SUMMER AND THE PROVOCATIVE
ACTIVITY IN NORTH KOREA.
THE NORTH KOREANS ESTATE 23
DIFFERENT MISSILE TESTS THROUGH
AUGUST, THERE HAS ONLY BEEN
OF NOVEMBER.
THAT SLOW DOWN COOLS OF THE
PACE OF KOREA PROVOCATIVE
ACTION, THEY TEND TO SLOW DOWN
IN NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, GENDER,
FEBRUARY, AND PICK UP AGAIN IN
THE SPRING.
YOU SEE HERE THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THERE MAY BE LESS
PROVOCATIVE ACTIVITY, AND
OPENING FOR DIPLOMACY.
THEY MAY BE EXTENDED, BECAUSE
THEY ARE HOSTING THE WINTER
THE SOUTH KOREANS WOULD LIKE TO
BE QUIET DURING A TIME.
>> Melissa: IT IS STAGGERING
THAT THE OLYMPICS ARE COMING UP
DESPITE OF WHAT IS GOING ON.
IT IS SOMETHING WE'VE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT FOR A WHILE, AND
THESE ATHLETES ARE GOING TO THIS
AREA, WHERE IT WOULD BE THE
PERFECT TARGET TO CAUSE MAYHEM.
QUALIFIED TO GO TO NORTH KOREA,
AND YOU THINK THAT WILL BE A
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THEY DO
IT.
>> IS NOT CLEAR THAT THEY
REGISTERED, THEY ARE SKATERS, I
DID QUALIFY FOR THE OLYMPIC
GAMES IN SOUTH KOREA.
INTERESTING DIPLOMATIC QUESTION
AT THE MOMENT THAT PEOPLE ARE
EXPLORING IS WHETHER THE
NORTH KOREANS WILL LET THEM GO
TO SOUTH KOREA.
THAT WOULD BE A GOOD SIGN,
ASSIGN THAT THE NORTH KOREANS
IT'S ALSO VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THAT WILL HAPPEN.
SOME OF THE PEOPLE THAT SAID,
YOU WILL NOT KNOW UNTIL THE DAY
OF THE OLYMPICS OPENING, BECAUSE
THE NORTH KOREANS TEND TO BE
SECRETIVE ABOUT EVERYTHING,
HAS NO PROBLEM STARTING AND
KILLING HIS PEOPLE, SO IF HE
SENDS IT TO ATHLETES TO
SOUTH KOREA, DOESN'T MEAN HE
WILL BOMB SOUTH KOREA ANYWAY.
>> YOU CANNOT BE SURE ABOUT
ANYTHING WITH KIM JONG UN.
IN TERMS OF SIGNAL SENDING,
SITTING HIS OWN ATHLETES TO
SOUTH KOREA WOULD BE A SIGNAL.
ON THE OTHER HAND, PEOPLE ARE
TALKING ABOUT SERIOUSLY THE FACT
I DO NOT THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT
SOUTH KOREANS ARE GOING TO WANT
TO BE TALKING ABOUT THAT SORT OF
THING IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH.
THEY WANT THE CLIMATE TO BE CALM
NOT TENSE DURING THAT PERIOD FOR
GOOD INTERNATIONAL SHOW.
YOU LOOK AT DIPLOMACY, IT'S HARD
TO IMAGINE WHAT DIPLOMACY RIGHT
NOW WOULD WORK.
SOMETHING THAT THE REST OF THE
WORLD CAN REALLY TOLERATE IN
SPITE OF WHAT OTHER LEADERS IN
THE PASSIVE SIDE?
>> IT IS A LONG PROCESS, IT TOOK
HIM A LONG TIME TO GET HERE.
THE ARGUMENT FOR DIPLOMACY IS
PRETTY SIMPLE.
IF YOU CAN HAVE A CONVERSATION
AND THEN FIGURE OUT IF YOU CAN
ROLL THEM BACK.
BY THE WAY, WHERE THEY ARE NOW
IS PROBABLY NOT AS ADVANCED AS
THEY LIKE TO PRETEND IT IS.
THEY HAVE SHOWN THEY CAN FIRE
BALLISTIC MISSILES A LONG WAY,
BUT THEY HAVE NOT SHOWN YET THAT
THEY CAN CARRY A HEAVY WARHEAD
AND HAVE IT REENTER THE
ATMOSPHERE WITHOUT
DISINTEGRATING.
DEFINITION THEY CAN FIRE SUCH A
MISSILE FROM A SUBMARINE, WHICH
THEY WOULD LIKE TO BE ABLE TO
DO.
THERE IS A WAYS TO GO BEFORE
THEY ARE FULLY FLEDGED NUCLEAR
WEAPONS POWER.
IF YOU CAN HAVE A DOUBLE MEDIC
PROCESS STOPS THE NORTH KOREAN
PROGRAM WHERE IT IS, THEN THERE
ARE POSSIBILITIES, AND AS WITH
THE USE IN CHINESE APPEAR IN THE
COMMUNITY WANTS.
HAVING AN IMPACT AS THEY WERE
HELPING RECENTLY, PULLING BACK A
BIT.
TALK ABOUT GETTING A
CONVERSATION GOING WITH THE U.S.
OR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT CAME OF
THAT.
EQUALLY INTERESTING, AT THE U.N.
SAID THE TOP LEVEL OFFICIAL INTO
KILLING INCOME OF THE
NORTH KOREAN CAPITAL JUST LAST
WEEK.
THAT HASN'T HAPPENED FOR SEVERAL
YEARS, AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF