MORE AFTER THIS.
OH, I THINK THEY'RE HERE.
WE HAVE LARRY BACK WITH US.
GENTLEMEN, I'M VERY SORRY FOR
THAT.
MY CONFUSION.
NO ONE ELSE BUT I WILL BLAME MY
PRODUCER.
YOU MIGHT WANT TO TAKE NOTE,
RETAILING.
TO ME THAT'S THE MOST
FASCINATING THING THAT'S BEEN
GOING ON HERE.
THE RETAIL THING SAYS CONSUMERS
ARE OPTIMISTIC, AND THEY ARE
PROVING IT BY GOING TO THE STORE
AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> WELL, IT'S 100% TRUE.
BECAUSE WE MOVED THIS ECONOMY
FROM AN EUYORE ECONOMY FROM
THE REASON WHY, THERE ARE A LOT
OF RETAILERS AND CONSUMERS WHO
SAID TO THEMSELVES, THAT'S A
GOOD IDEA, I WOULD HAVE DONE
THAT.
HE'S NOT RE-INVENTING THE WHEEL.
HE'S TALKING TO THE AVERAGE
PERSON ON THE STREET AND
EVERYBODY IS NOW SLOWLY BUT
SURELY COMING AROUND TO THE
FACT, THAT'S GOOD FOR THE
ECONOMY, THAT'S A GREAT IDEA,
WHY HAVEN'T WE DONE THAT BEFORE.
THESE AREN'T NEW IDEAS.
HE'S JUST ACTUALLY PUTTING THEM
IN PLACE AND THAT GIVES
EVERYBODY CONFIDENCE, FROM THE
CEO TO THE GUY THAT WAS SHOPPING
ON WALMART THE LAST THREE
MONTHS.
IT'S PSYCHOLOGICAL.
AND ONLY ONE WRITTEN ON WHAT TO
DO TO GET YOURSELF OUT OF
DEFLATION BECAUSE DEFLATION IS A
PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUE.
THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN ABLE TO
CONQUER THAT.
>> YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE THINGS
THAT COULD GET IN THE WAY OF
THAT, FAIR AND BALANCED, IS THE
FACT GASOLINE PRICES HAVE TICKED
UP A LITTLE BIT.
THEY BOUNCE AROUND AND IT TAKES
AWAY WHATEVER THOSE CONSUMERS,
THOSE SHOPPERS, ARE GETTING WITH
THE TAX CUTS, DEPENDING ON THE
GROUP AND THE SECTOR AND THE
DEMOGRAPHICS.
SOME GET MORE THAN OTHERS.
ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THAT?
>> I AM WORRIED ABOUT THAT,
NEIL.
I GET MORE WORRIED AS TIME MOVES
ON, BECAUSE THE REALITY IS WE
HAVEN'T INVESTED IN NEW OIL TO
THE EXTENT WE NEED TO INVEST IN
NEW OIL.
SO THAT'S GOING TO BE
PROBLEMATIC.
UPCOMING WE HAVE THE IRANIAN
SANCTIONS THAT MAY TAKE SOME OIL
OFF THE MARKET, WHICH COULD MAKE
IT EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE.
SO THE LAST THING WE NEED IS
HIGH-PRICED GASOLINE SO REALLY,
IN A SENSE THAT WOULD DEFLATE
SOME OF THAT ECONOMIC PROSPERITY
YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
NEIL: SWITCH AROUND TO SOME
MARKET READ.
IS IT YOUR SENSE, WE DON'T NEED
A BIG DEAL ON TRADE WITH CHINA
OR BIG DEAL ON TRADE WITH THE
MEXICANS.
I KNOW THE PRESIDENT SORT OF
POSITS I DON'T GET SOMETHING I
LIKE, I WON'T DO IT, BUT THAT
ANYTHING WOULD BE GREETED -- I'M
ONLY LOOKING AT THIS THROUGH THE
MARKETS -- AS A WIN AND IT WILL
TAKE UNCERTAINTY AWAY AND THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFF TO THE
RACES.
IS THAT FACTORED IN?
>> SOME OF IT IS FACTORED IN BUT
YOU MENTIONED THE RIGHT ANSWER
THERE, AND THAT'S JUST
CERTAINTY.
RIGHT?
THEY JUST WANT SOME CERTAINTY.
WHAT ARE THE OUTFIELD WALLS
THAT'S ALL THE CEOs WANT AND ALL
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN WANTS, JUST
SOME CERTAINTY BECAUSE THIS IS
GOING TO GO ON LONGER THAN A
DAY, AND A DAY LESS THAN
FOREVER.
THE VOLATILITY IS IN BETWEEN.
WE JUST DON'T KNOW WHAT THE
WORLD LOOKS LIKE UNTIL WE GET
SOME CERTAINTY.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE CERTAINTY.
UNTIL THAT, IT WILL BE A LITTLE
THE BETTER IT IS FOR HIM, THE
LONGER THAT THAT TAKES, THE
WORSE IT IS FOR HIM.
NEIL: IT'S ALSO A MATTER OF
TIME, WHETHER YOU ARE TALKING
IRAN OR EVERYTHING ELSE, TALKING
TRADE OR EVERYTHING ELSE.
BUT IF WE DON'T HAVE SOME SORT
OF CLOSURE ON SOME OF THESE
ISSUES SOON, LEAVE ALONE THE
MIDTERM ELECTIONS, WHAT DO YOU
THINK HAPPENS?
THE PRESIDENT GETS WHAT HE WANTS
BUT IT'S SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED,
IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS OR MONTHS.
>> WELL, IT'S REALLY CRITICAL
FOR VOTERS, FOR CITIZENS, TO
UNDERSTAND WHAT'S REALLY GOING
ON, AND THE MORE WE CAN FOCUS
AND I THINK FRANKLY, I WILL
COMPLIMENT YOU, YOU DO A GREAT
JOB OF EXPLAINING THINGS.
I THINK THE WHOLE NOTION OF HOW
ENERGY AFFECTS THE ECONOMY AND
HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO
STOP THE FLOW OF ENERGY, BECAUSE
THEY DON'T BELIEVE IN THE
CURRENT KIND OF ENERGY, THEY
WANT TO STOP THE FLOW OF ENERGY,
WHETHER THAT'S GETTING IN FRONT
OF PIPELINES OR GETTING IN FRONT
OF OTHER NEW INVESTMENTS.
WE NEED THOSE.
IT'S A WAY OF LIFE.
WE LIVE A HIGH ENERGY LIFE AND
SO I THINK WE NEED TO WORK ON
WHAT ENERGY MECHANISMS CAN WE
ACCELERATE SUCH AS ALTERNATIVE
PATH TODAY, BUT WE NEED
ALTERNATIVE FUELS TO GASOLINE TO
PEOPLE NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHY
IT'S HAPPENING AND WHAT IT'S ALL
ABOUT, AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO
BRING IN THE POLITICS OF IT.
THE POLITICS OF IT ARE THE DEATH
OF ENERGY.
NEIL: VERY GOOD POINT.
I TRY TO AVOID POLITICS OF IT
BECAUSE PEOPLE SAY OH, THIS OR
THAT.
I REALLY DON'T CARE.
I FOLLOW THE MONEY.
ONE OF THE THINGS, SCOTT, YOU
COULD ARGUE IS THAT CONSUMERS
BUY OR DO ANYTHING PRETTY MUCH
BASED ON THE CONFIDENCE.
I TALKED TO ONE COUPLE, I WAS
MENTIONING EARLIER, THEY WERE
NOT BIG FANS OF THIS PRESIDENT
BUT THEIR SON WHO GRADUATED FROM
COLLEGE RECENTLY HAS A VERY,
VERY GOOD JOB PROSPECT, FIRST
TIME THEY HAVE SEEN THAT.
THEY ARE VERY OPTIMISTIC.
THEY STILL DON'T FLIP OVER THIS
PRESIDENT BUT THEY DO FLIP OVER
THE ECONOMY HE OVERSEES.
I DON'T KNOW HOW THAT TRANSLATES
TO VOTING IN NOVEMBER.
THERE'S NO WAY OF KNOWING.
THAT OPTIMISTIC, THEY TEND, TO
YOUR POINT, TO GO OUT AND BUY.
NOW, THE QUESTION I HAVE FOR YOU
REGARDING THIS MARKET, IT'S KIND
OF LIKE THE QUESTION I HAD FOR
EXPECTED NEWS BUT THE STOCK
STILL SOLD OFF.
I KNOW IT RAN UP A LOT AHEAD OF
THAT NEWS SO YOU COULD BE BUYING
>> YOU'RE RIGHT.
THE RETAILERS HAD A DECEMBER
RUN-UP AND THEY HAVE SOLD OFF
BUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE
AND WALMART OR BIGGER EXAMPLE OF
AMAZON, WHO ARE THE CUSTOMERS OF
WALMART, RIGHT?
IT IS ALL OF US.
IT IS EVERYBODY.
AND THEN THAT IS ALSO ONLINE AND
ALSO BRICKS AND MORTAR.
SO THEY HAVE SUCH A BROAD REACH
AND THEIR MARKETS ARE SO BIG
THAT, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO SEE
SOMETHING NOT GO TO WALMART
BECAUSE WE HAVE PROBLEM WITH
UNCERTAIN YOU WILL HOLD BACK,
RIGHT?
>> YES, YOU'RE RIGHT, BECAUSE
WE CAN ALLER TO GET ABOUT
PSYCHOLOGY IS NUMBER ONE AND
POCKETBOOK IS NUMBER TWO.
TO LOOK AT POCKETBOOKS.
IF YOU WERE BETTER OFF THAN YOU
NEIL: YOU GUYS ARE BOTH GREAT.
SORRY CONFUSING WHEN I WOULD GET
TO YOU, THAT IS ON ME.
I WANT TO THANK YOU FOR YOUR
PERSPECTIVE.
MARKETS ARE THE DARNEDEST
THINGS.
YOUR MONEY, WHERE THEY THINK
THIS ECONOMY IS GOING.
THEY MAKE WRONG HUNCHES, WRONG
BETS.
IN THE FALL OF '87, A LOT WERE
BUYING WILLY-NILLY.
THEY MADE WRONG HUNCHES THAT
BROUGHT US OCTOBER 1987.
SO THEY CAN BE WRONG.
CAN WHAT THEY'RE DOING, WHY YOU
SEE 29 OF 30 DOW STOCKS ARE UP,
BECAUSE THE BACKDROP FROM
WALMART AND CONSUMER AND THEY
ARE PUTTING DOWN THEIR OWN
MONEY.
WHEN THEY SEE CONSUMERS PLUNGING
DOWN THEIR MONEY, FOR THE MOST
PART THEY'RE WILLING TO PLUNGE
DOWN STILL MONEY AND STOCKS IN