If you were asked which is the most turbulent region in the world, what would you answer:
Latin America or Sub-Saharan Africa? It’s hard to pin down because, if there is one
thing that abounds in the world, it is conflict. However, another perfectly logical answer could be
the Middle East, probably the region with the most clashes per square mile on the planet.
Think about it, at this meeting point between Europe, Asia and Africa,
we have Israel's conflict with Palestine, jihadist terrorism, ISIS, the Syrian civil war,
Kurdish independence, the problem with the Muslim brotherhood and the war in Yemen.
Not forgetting, of course, we also have the mother of all conflicts, the fanatical confrontation
between the Shiites and the Sunnis. And okay, I know what many of you are
thinking... Here they go again talking about the divisions within Islam.
Well, no, relax, this video is not about Islam and its fratricidal infighting. Well,
it is in part, but not directly. In this video we are going to deal with
something that for many is representing a tectonic shift in global geopolitics:
the growing ties between China and this region. And you may be wondering, what does China have
to do with the Middle East? Well... it's certainly not that Xi Jinping wants to go
sightseeing on a camel, or anything close to that, but rather with news like this:
(11 March 2023: Chinese-brokered deal upends Mideast diplomacy and challenges U.S.)
Indeed, China has managed to close a deal to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia,
two of the great powers in the Middle East that have been at each other's throats
for much of their history, closer together. And do you know what this means? That Beijing
is continuing to spread its tentacles in this part of the world. Pakistan is no longer enough,
now it wants to go further and target the heavyweights directly.
And, logically, Saudi Arabia and Iran are two heavyweights with one huge advantage:
they can guarantee China's energy supply. That is why we should not
be surprised to find news items like these: (Saudi Arabia says $50 Billion Investments
Agreed with China. – Bloomberg) (Saudi Aramco boosts China investment
with two refinery deals - Reuters) Now, to what extent is the Middle East
becoming another backyard for China? Could this be a blow to US interests? How far will
relations between the Saudis and Iranians go? Today we are going to answer all these questions,
but first, first we need to look at a bit of history.
LIKE CATS AND DOGS) Yes, historically there
have been many tensions over religion: Shiite Islam versus Sunni Islam. However,
by and large it never went any further than that. Nor, after the formation in 1932 of
Saudi Arabia as we know it today or the arrival of Iran’s Pahlavi dynasty in 1925. What’s more,
after the Second World War and during the Cold War, both countries were under the umbrella of
the Western bloc, they had shared interests. Both were close allies of the United States.
However, in 1979, suddenly everything changed: Iran's Islamic Revolution had begun.
As you know, in 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini led the now well-known Islamic Revolution
in Iran. He promoted a message against the monarchies of the Persian Gulf and
sought to expand the revolution wherever Shiite minorities were to be found.
And can you guess where a significant Shiite community is located? Precisely in the east of
Saudi Arabia, which is exactly where the largest oil fields of this country are located. With
this in mind, it is no wonder that Riyadh's suspicion and distrust of Tehran multiplied.
Precisely for this reason, the Saudi government tried to weaken the Revolution by all means.
For example, when the Iran-Iraq war broke out, Riyadh did not hesitate in financing
the Iraqi regime with tens of billions of dollars during the eight years of the war.
In addition, in 1981 it led the founding of the Gulf Cooperation Council,
an umbrella organization for all the absolute monarchies of the Persian Gulf.
And so things between the two powers went from bad to worse.
However, in 1997, the "moderate" Mohammed Khatami became president of Iran and
relations stabilized for a few years. In 2001, the two countries even managed to
sign a security pact to fight terrorism. However, this renewed stability did not
last long either. It all blew up with a fresh conflict in the Middle East. Let’s take a look.
RAISING THE TEMPERATURE) 2003 was a particularly turbulent year. Thousands
of angry protesters took to the streets in the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom.
Why? You guessed it: the invasion of Iraq. Despite not having the support of the United
Nations Security Council, Washington and London went to war against Saddam
Hussein for allegedly having weapons of mass destruction. You have all heard about that.
What you may not know is that this invasion turned the tense relationship between Arabs and Iranians
even more upside down. The invasion provoked nothing less than the beginning of a particular
Cold War between these two countries. At stake was political and even military
supremacy. Don’t forget that Iraq is a key country in the Middle East:
With more than 40 million inhabitants, it is one of
the most heavily populated countries in the world, It has the fifth largest crude oil reserves in the
world and also has important water resources thanks to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
To top it all off, just look at this map: Iraq is located right in the heart of the
region and borders Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
In other words, with Iraq on its side, Tehran would become the dominant power
in the Middle East. And do you know what? That's exactly what started to happen.
After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the power vacuum that was created in the country,
Iraq's Shiite majority, backed by the Iran of the Ayatollahs, found the perfect breeding ground for
consolidating and extending its power. For example, Nuri al-Maliki began ruling Iraq in
2006. And yes, al-Maliki was the leader of the country, but the truth is that he only had eyes
for the Shiite community. So the conflict was on.
And, keep in mind that the Cold War didn’t stop with Iraq – not at all! Tehran saw its chance,
so suddenly the Iranian regime started supporting a lot of Shiite movements
all over the Islamic world: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad in Syria,
the revolutionaries in Bahrain during their Arab Spring, and, of course, the Houthis in Yemen.
The latter ended with a disastrous Saudi military intervention that has
cost them a lot of lives and money. We have already covered it here on VisualPolitik.
And, we haven’t even reached 2016 yet. And what happened in 2016? Well... Take a look.
(Saudi Arabia executes Shiite reformist cleric Nimr al-Nimr and 46 others on terrorism charges)
As you can imagine, this did not sit too well in Iran. Tens of thousands of
protesters took to the streets in Tehran and even burned down the Saudi embassy.
Diplomatic relations between the two countries were completely severed.
What’s more, there was another important issue
on the table that separated them even further: the Iranian nuclear program.
With the bomb, Iran would be impregnable. Of course, this was not only
of concern to the Saudis. This program made Iran suddenly
become one of the great protagonists of international news cycles. Or rather,
one of the big villains in international politics. Since it launched its nuclear program, Iran has
been hit with all kinds of sanctions, which has made it more and more isolated from the world.
Without going any further, this is what a spokesman for the Biden Administration's
National Security Council recently said. ("The United States is committed to never
allowing Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. We believe diplomacy is the best way to achieve
that goal, but President Biden has also been clear that we have not taken any options off
the table." – National Security Council spokesperson in remarks to the WSJ).
In other words, Iran needed to find new partners. And Visualpolitik viewers, this is exactly where
today’s great protagonist enters the scene. Pay close attention.
WHAT IS CHINA DOING IN THE MIDDLE EAST?)
China's presence in the Middle East and North Africa is not strictly new. In 1956 it had already
succeeded in making Egypt the first country in the region to recognize the People's Republic of China
as the real China to the detriment of Taiwan. However, since the arrival of Xi Jinping,
the stakes have become much clearer, especially with regard to Iran.
(China and Iran seal partnership with 25-year cooperation pact
Although no details have emerged, the pact broadly envisages Chinese
investments of around $400 billion in the Iranian energy sector. – El Confidencial)
However, if we compare them with the relations that China has forged with
Saudi Arabia over recent decades, Iran seems to be on a second level.
After Deng Xiaoping came to power and opened up to the rest of the world,
the Asian giant's economy took off. And do you know what that means? That China needed more and
more oil. And where is the most secure and stable supply of crude oil? Exactly in Saudi Arabia.
In this way, the Saudis became Beijing's key supplier.
In 2022, Russia snatched the top spot from Saudi Arabia, but you all know why that happened.
Be that as it may, the fact is that in recent years China has been strengthening
its relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia. And that's exactly what explains how Beijing
managed to finalise a deal for these two great enemies to shake hands again. As you know,
a fat check can always work miracles. Of course, in addition to the money,
the timing was also right. Listen up.
GAME CHANGES)
After seven years of enormous tension between Riyadh and Tehran, on 10 March
2023 both countries decided to shake hands. At least to restore their diplomatic relations.
And let's see, I think we can all understand that when your main client asks you for something,
you are at least receptive. In a way, that's what has happened between Saudi Arabia and China.
This time, however, dollars are not the only reason. After all, China needs Saudi Arabia more
than the Arab country needs the Asian giant. If China were to reduce its purchases of crude oil,
the Saudis could easily place that oil on the international market. Remember that we are talking
about the country with the lowest extraction costs on the planet, which means it has a higher margin
than the rest of the dinosaur juice producers. So this time, besides saving face with a good
client, Riyadh had three other good reasons to shake hands with Tehran.
First of all, Saudi Arabia's relations with the United States are not at their best and, in fact,
in Riyadh they are beginning to be wary of the supposed American protection. In 2019,
for example, they suffered an attack by two Iranian drones against their oil infrastructure
without Washington lifting a finger. And that happened with Trump in the White House,
because now with Biden relations are even worse. Secondly, the breakup in 2018 of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action that monitored the Iranian nuclear program got on the nerves
of the Saudi government, particularly due to the lack of alternatives. In Riyadh,
they are terrified that Tehran could succeed any day in getting hold of the
nuclear bomb... And that is why they hope that China can curb these aspirations.
Finally, Iran has pledged to eliminate its support for Yemen's Houthis, which will allow
Saudi Arabia to reduce tension in a long-running conflict that has now spanned nearly a decade.
Well, that's as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned. For its part, Iran has its own goals:
Firstly, to reduce US influence in the region,
which includes seeking escape routes from international sanctions.
Secondly, to stop the development of the Abraham agreements between Israel and the Arab countries.
You already know that Israel is the other great enemy of Iran's Islamic revolution,
so Iran does not want under any circumstances that Riyadh follows in the footsteps of Abu Dhabi and
normalizes its relations with the Hebrew state. And finally, they hope that with this agreement
the risk of a military clash will dissipate. Iran already has enough open fronts.
But what about China, and why is it so interested in an issue like this? Quite simply: it is part
of Xi Jinping's new strategy to present itself as an influential player at the international level.
Let's not kid ourselves, the group photograph of the representatives
of these three countries has been one of China's greatest diplomatic successes in recent decades.
And, of course, this agreement also calms tensions in a key region for China's energy supply. Keep in
mind that 40-50% of all China's energy imports come from the Middle East. And take note,
because the United States buys fewer than 1 million barrels/day from this
region of the world, which is equivalent to less than 5% of its total consumption.
In other words, a potential conflict in the Middle East may be unimportant for the United States,
but it would be a nightmare for China. Now, speaking of the United States, what does
Washington think of this agreement? Many analysts have suggested that it represents the end of US
influence in this region of the world. Some even say that it has been a great diplomatic failure.
But is it really so? Well, let's see. ALIVE AND KICKING)
To what extent does the Tehran-Riyadh deal represent a death blow to Uncle
Sam's influence? How might it affect its negotiations for preventing Iran
from getting its hands on the nuclear bomb? Well, watch out, because far from what many
have said, this agreement might not be particularly bad for Washington.
We can highlight three main reasons: You see, yes, Saudi Arabia and the
United States are not on the best terms right now, but things are not so bad.
Riyadh needs and will continue to need the US military industry, basically because it
has no alternatives. What’s more, far from what we might think, Uncle Sam continues
to strengthen its presence in the country. (U.S. military is developing plans to open a new
testing facility in Saudi Arabia - NBC News) Not to mention Mohamed Bin Salman's plans
to overcome oil dependence. Have you heard of the Vision 2030 plan? I'm sure you have. Well,
keep one thing in mind, all those announcements of mega-projects that
the Saudis make every now and then need one thing in order to work: the participation
of multinationals and American capital. On the other hand, the Americans have been trying
for years to end the war in Yemen. And now after the agreement we find news stories like this:
(Saudi Arabia exits war in Yemen. After months of labored negotiations,
a peace deal between Riyadh and the Houthi rebels, who have been in conflict since 2015,
is expected to be announced soon. – Le Monde) But above all, and perhaps most importantly,
it is virtually impossible for this agreement to have much further to run.
Taking a deeper look, the agreement will not end tensions between Iranian Shiites and Saudi
Wahhabi Sunnis. Nor is it going to end Tehran's support for many Saudi enemies or enemies of
Saudi allies. And it certainly does not look like Tehran will give up its nuclear program.
And that is a red line that Riyadh has marked many times and that brings it
much closer to the United States and Israel. So yes, with this agreement China has managed
to strengthen itself in the eyes of the international community, Saudi Arabia has
dealt another diplomatic setback to the United States, and Iran's image is, in a way, whitened.
But let's not fool ourselves, this agreement will most likely come to nothing in the long
run. And it is certainly not enough to herald the end of Uncle Sam's influence in the Middle East.
Rather, it is a problem. But now the questions are for you:
do you think China will get both countries to comply with everything agreed? Will the
United States respond to this diplomatic move by China? Is it possible that China will curb
the Iranian nuclear program? You can leave me your answer in the comments. As always,
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