It was a very on Super Tuesday for the Progressive Movement in the United States. One of the things I do not do on this program, I will not do on this program is give you unrealistic
assessments of how things are going. And I told you yesterday, the momentum for Joe Biden from his over­performing in South Carolina combined with the drop out and endorsements of "peatbodied and any clubs or it is likely to propel bid into better results than the polling reflects going in
yesterday's elections. And this, indeed, happened. It was a bad night for Bernie Sanders, it was about as good of a night as
Joe Biden could have hoped to have given where he was just a week ago even winning in Texas was Joe Biden which he was not expected to win. So, we're going to look at the results we're going
to look at how the results compared with the polls will look at the delegate numbers will analyze the path forward. But what is really important to understand bigger picture about what's going on here
is that this has been a similar pattern in the last several Democratic primaries, where we're going to look at this tomorrow in 2008 and in 2016, you have a situation where you have the polling at the
beginning of the primary, and then things start to drastically shift. Either two candidates, getting
very, very far apart, and then it reverses. Or to candid, it's getting very, very close. And then it reverses. Look at 2008, and look at 2016 and look in 10 days at 20­20 and you will see a very
similar pattern and again, being surprised when the same patterns repeat themselves means we're not paying attention, we are being adults here, we are going to deal with what is, and not what we
would like to be. Let's start with the results. There were 14 primaries yesterday, plus American Samoa, job, one of the primaries Bernie 14, and they're still counting in Maine, which is very close.
It's within a point right now, but with on 4 delegates the results there are only going to influence the total count to some degree, it's going to be a fraction, a marginal difference there. Joe Biden
winning in Alabama Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Massachusetts and Texas Bernie Sanders winning Vermont Colorado, Utah, and California.
Although the exact margin there is still being tallied. And then, as I mentioned, in Maine, in Maine, the counting is still going on. Michael Bloomberg did pick up delegates he is now in a third 4th
place in delegate numbers based on active active candidates that we will discuss that Elizabeth Warren did very poorly performing at the 20% level, only in her home State of Massachusetts
where she came in third place and much like Michael Bloomberg Sorrento clearly has no path to the nomination at this point in time, when she gets out is increasingly a topic of concern, says she's
fighting on to the following primaries based on a fundraising email that she sent although at the same time there is the idea that she is re­evaluating the campaign. As is Michael Bloomberg.
Let's now look at the delegate numbers. Every website has slightly different numbers on this, but as of right now, according to the Associated Press, the delegate count, is bid in 4530. and Bernie 382,
that's a 71 delegate, lead for Joe Biden. And we'll discuss in a moment, why that is important. And then you see Warren and Michael
Bloomberg 50th and 44th place 50 delegates and 44 delegates respectively. 03/05/20 Page 2 of 17
davidpakmanshow­2020­03­04­commercialfree One thing I was paying attention to that tells us a lot about momentum and this is really entering the
analysis of what's to come. Because there are a lot of people saying this is over for Bernie and there are a lot of people saying this is the beginning of the fight for Bernie and there are a lot of delegates
still out there, which is of course completely true when we look at the polling and compare it to the results if candidates do better than the polling it's the signal that their caring, pent up momentum
with them including into future elections and that's what we need to look at and when we compare the results to the polling what you see are good numbers for Joe Biden. Again, I'm just the
messenger. If you look at many of these states join one by a larger margin than the polling. So as an example, in Alabama, by in one by 47 he was projected to win by 25 by an over­performed the polls
by 22 Arkansas "bian over performed by five California where Bernie one Berne under performed by three in Colorado where Bernie and Bernie under performed by one that's a sunsets born and
Bernie were slated to win one or the other BI and one by 7 over­performing everything. If you look at, for example, Minnesota "bian was supposed to lose by 5­1­9, that's a plus 14. and as you go
down the list, you find that by an over­performed basically every state and Bernie underperformed basically every state even Utah and Vermont were burning one underperformed the polls by eight
and by 12th. So the numbers are not particularly good for Bernie Sanders. Sometimes when you look forward,
you have to look at what regions are left to vote. So let's talk about that going forward. Yes, there are plenty of Delegates out there, Yeah, 701 delegates as a margin Bernie Sanders could very easily
overcome in just one night of voting. But the question is, where is it going to happen? And there are all sorts of hot takes about this, it's not over­Bernie's in it. And they're absolutely right Bernie can
win it, but the window closes unless we can figure out exactly where Bernie can win it, because if you add up the momentum, meaning a lot of people sado­bins reversal yesterday and I predict by in
support, will only grow from this point forward to, if you look at the remaining big states they are not good states for Bernie Sanders, example, Florida has bid in plus 22, and that's 219 delegates.
That's a real problem for Bernie unless he reverses it. New York is going to be closer for sure.
There's no recent polling but it could be roughly a three­way split between bi and Bernie and Bloomberg. If Bloomberg gets out bite and likely wins New York. But again, if it's a roughly even
split that helps "bian in the delegate math because it just maintains his lead. We look at Michigan, the latest poll in Michigan has bid and ahead Georgia is a big one with 15 delegates and bites. Been
ahead there since day one. There's a question mark around Ohio. We don't have any recent polls there. And lastly, if
Bloomberg, does get out and Warren does not, He's reportedly re­evaluating his campaign today. It's not clear what "bian is doing, if bloom brings out in Warren's in that is even more support that's
going to go from Bloomberg to bid in and that could be the nail in Bernie's coffin. That's the way the numbers are looking right now. So I'm here to tell you, Bernie has a path and it is a steep uphill,
path, and it's getting to be very similar to in 2016. and what I don't wanna participate in are these completely out of this world hypotheticals where you had... I'm not even gonna name the people. A
lot of them don't even really have shows anymore, their online presence has gone away anyway. So 03/05/20 Page 3 of 17
davidpakmanshow­2020­03­04­commercialfree you wouldn't even recognize the name, but the... There were all sorts of people in 2016, when it was
very clear that it was over for Bernie insisting not only that Bernie had a shot, but the Berner had the most likely shot. I'm not going to do that. This is bad for Bernie. He has a path. It depends on a
reversal of momentum, it depends on changes happening in the dynamics. For this race, this is always a tough situation. It happened in 2016 as well. When I can't in good faith come to you and
tell you lies or blow smoke up your whatever. When I am not a campaign spokesperson, right? This is a well­orchestrated reversal by the Democratic Party. It took 96 hours to rock at Joe Biden in
the position of now being the favorite to win this thing. And the important thing that I wanna get into, because the numbers are the numbers and I'm telling you what they are, the poles and
upcoming states are what they are. What I want to talk about is should this be considered a wake­up call to the progressive movement, and if so, what kind? And that's what I want to talk about next