Hey there VisualPolitik community, what a mess is going on in Africa!
The coup d'état in Niger means much more than the typical seizure of power by the military.
Yes, it is true that Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world.
But despite this, it did have a recognized democracy.
It had a government willing to ask for international help to curb jihadism, which is making the
Sahel its territory.
In this sense, Niger was the great ally of the West in the heart of the Sahel.
Now, however, all this has been blown to bits by the coup d'état at the end of July.
Now Niger's military junta is still looking for foreign help.
But it wants to change allies.
(Niger's junta asks for help from Russian group Wagner as it faces military intervention
threat – AP NEWS)
But wait a minute, because military intervention was not offered by any Western power, concerned
as they are by the Kremlin's growing influence in Africa.
So help was not offered, at least not directly.
It was ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, which is not willing to tolerate
another military coup and is demanding the return to power of Mohamed Bazoum, the deposed
president of Niger.
And that is exactly what has set the drums of war beating in Africa.
(10 August 2023: West African Leaders Activate 'Standby Force' to Respond to Niger Coup – NY
Times)
Worst of all, this military intervention could go beyond Niger and trigger a regional conflict
that could spread to multiple countries.
This is how the spokesman of the military junta, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, put it;
A pre-deployment of forces to participate in this war started in two countries of Central
Africa.
Faced with the threat of intervention which is becoming clearer through preparation from
neighboring countries, Niger's airspace is closed from today)
Abdramane has not hesitated to accuse a "foreign power" of instigating and preparing an attack
against Niger.
Of course, he is referring to France, its former colonial ruler.
In fact, the military junta has broken all Niger's military agreements with France.
The Macron government merely indicated that it supports the ECOWAS intervention.
So, you are already seeing how things are progressing.
And you may be wondering: why has this coup d'état taken place in Niger?
What role is Russia playing in all this?
And above all, how many countries might this conflict end up splattering?
On VisualPolitik today we are going to answer all these questions, but first, let's take
a look at a bit of History.
(THE LAST DEMOCRACY OF THE SAHEL)
The Sahel is a narrow strip of land south of the Sahara desert characterized by extreme
poverty.
Four countries are located in the center of the Sahel, from west to east: Mali, Burkina
Faso, Niger and Chad.
Well, they all have several things in common.
To begin with, all of these countries are landlocked; what’s more, French is spoken
in all four, so you can probably guess which country was the colonial power; they are also
majority Muslim countries.
And now they also have something else in common: all of them are currently governed by the
military after the coup d'état that put an end to the Seventh Republic of Niger.
And yes, more than one of you will be thinking: but let's see [host], if Niger gained independence
from France in 1960, 63 years with 7 Republics works out to 9 years per Republic.
Yes, that’s true but stability and Niger are two words that do not usually go hand
in hand.
Even so, there does appear to have been a change since 2010.
A military coup in favor of democracy ousted President Mamadou Tandja from power, a man
who had been elected at the ballot box but who aspired to keep himself in power and turn
Niger into an authoritarian regime.
The transition was supported by the international community and resulted in the Constitution
of the 7th Republic.
A period that in 2021 would see the first peaceful transfer of power between presidents.
Nevertheless, in the last decade the Sahel has seen a serious threat destabilizing the
entire region.
We are talking about jihadism.
Religious fanaticism finds its soldiers among the desperate and often starving inhabitants
of these Sahel countries.
These are people who were born in one of the worst places in the world; and the jihadists
promise them a better present and a future in paradise.
And, of course, the problem is that the alternative is subsistence agriculture, on which more
than 80% of Niger's population lives in poverty.
In fact, extreme poverty reaches almost half of all the country's inhabitants.
These figures have hardly changed in the 13 years of the 7th Republic.
We are talking about data very similar to those of neighboring countries such as Mali
and Burkina Faso.
Both have had coups d'état in the last three years that ended democracy: Mali in 2021 and
Burkina Faso in 2022.
In both cases, the military seized power under the pretext of ending jihadism.
However, the results have been quite the opposite.
Take a look at this map produced by the US company StratFor of violent incidents in the
Sahel between August 2021 and August 2022.
The war against jihadism has triggered violence.
In 2022, jihadist deaths in the Sahel increased by 75%, to more than 10,000.
Chaos prevails.
And Mali's military junta has turned to the Wagners.
In Burkina Faso, the government barely controls 40% of the country.
In Niger the situation is not so extreme, but the same jihadist groups that are ravaging
Mali and Burkina Faso are also active there.
We are talking about Al-Qaeda and Daesh affiliates; it also suffers constant attacks by Boko Haram
and the Islamic State in its border area with Nigeria.
Yet unlike in Burkina Faso and Mali, the last year in Niger was proving to be the least
deadly since 2018.
So the question is, what is the reason for this difference?
Well, nothing less than the approach adopted in Niger by the government of Mohamed Bazoum
against jihadism.
His strategy has several steps:
First, Western military aid, mainly provided by France and the United States; second, the
improvement of State services in the most depressed areas; and third, other initiatives
that are as opposed to the war against jihadism as they are obviously controversial:
(Niger: Mohamed Bazoum releases "terrorists" to open the dialogue)
The Bazoum-backed demobilization plan promised to reintegrate into society jihadists who
laid down their arms.
So basically: dialogue in exchange for a truce; freedom in exchange for peace.
From the Western point of view, talking to terrorists is a bad idea: it implies giving
in to their blackmail and opens the door to fresh attacks in order to achieve new concessions.
However, in a country like Niger, the real power of the State and the strength of the
terrorist groups must be weighed against each other.
If the fight is balanced, going to war could be a disaster for the population.
Other avenues must be explored.
And of course, there are those who are not willing to tolerate the slightest sign of
weakness.
This is how the new president of Niger, General Omar Tchiani, justified his coup d'état due
to the alleged deterioration of security caused by jihadism.
This is the same excuse that the coup plotters gave
in Mali and Burkina Faso.
But you have already seen that the data from Niger are quite different.
So there must be something else.
The question is, what?
Well, possibly the pre-coup rumors that General Tchiani was going to be removed as the head
of the presidential guard are true.
Don’t lose sight of the fact that it was the presidential guard that carried out the
coup by taking President Bazoum hostage.
The Army had to declare itself afterwards.
Take a look:
(Niger army backs coup against pro-western leader to prevent 'bloodbath' – FT)
But well, it is not worth giving much more thought to all this.
At the end of the day, they are military men staging a coup d'état to seize power.
Whether out of personal ambition or national discontent, for one reason or another it is
daily fodder on the African continent.
Nevertheless, VisualPolitik community, this time they have come up against the direct
rejection of a regional organization such as ECOWAS.
An organization that seems ready to do anything to restore democracy in Niger.
And take note because it would not be the first time.
(ECHOES OF WAR)
ECOWAS is an organization made up of 15 West African countries including Niger.
Initially it was an organization with an economic purpose of forming a single trade bloc.
But wait a minute, because ECOWAS has also mobilized peacekeepers in the region and intervened
in member countries in times of great instability.
In the last 30 years they have been active in Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Ivory Coast,
Liberia, Mali and Gambia.
It was in Gambia that the last ECOWAS military intervention took place, It was in 2017.
After two decades in power, Yahya Jammeh was reluctant to relinquish power to Adama Barrow,
who had won the presidential election.
ECOWAS formed a coalition of troops from Senegal, Ghana and Nigeria and set out to invade The
Gambia.
Yahya Jammeh resigned after three days and democracy was restored).
Even so, Niger is not Gambia.
Its territory is 100 times larger and its armed forces, in addition to being more numerous,
has years of training by Western forces.
So military intervention is complex and would involve taking many more risks.
The first one, the life of President Bazoum, who is not in exile but in the hands of the
coup plotters.
(Western officials: Niger junta warned they'd kill deposed president after any military
intervention – ABC News)
On top of that, I am sure many of you are wondering why ECOWAS has now been so firm
and assertive towards Niger when similar coups have also recently taken place in Mali and
Burkina Faso.
Well, the key to everything lies with one person: Bola Tinubu.
He has been the new president of Nigeria since last May.
Tinubu has had enough time to be appointed president of ECOWAS at the beginning of July.
A representative position from which he launched this message at his inauguration:
In his speech he also defended democracy, freedom and the rule of law.
And all this is much more than Bola Tinubu's words.
They are the new Nigerian president's letter of introduction to ECOWAS, to the African
continent and even the whole world.
After all, we cannot forget the enormous influence of Nigeria.
We are talking about the great African power alongside Egypt and South Africa.
And, naturally, it is the leading voice of ECOWAS.
Aside from its concern that Niger will suffer the same fate as Mali and Burkina Faso and
that violence in the area will escalate, Nigeria wants to assume its role as a regional leader.
And the Niger coup took place just three weeks after Tinubu's speech.
So, as long as diplomacy remains unsuccessful, military preparations will continue.
The credibility of Bola Tinubu is at stake.
(ECOWAS contingent for invasion of Niger may amount up to 25,000 – RFI)
More than half of the contingent would be contributed by Nigeria.
Senegal, Ivory Coast and Benin have also confirmed that they will send troops.
And then there are two other countries with troops on the ground: one is France.
The former colonial ruler is being used by the coup plotters as a scapegoat.
Everything that is wrong in Niger is France's fault.
Indeed, the coup plotters have attacked the French embassy and even accused the Macron
government of releasing terrorists.
On top of that, we don’t want to show unpleasant images, but just to let you know that the
coup plotters filled a soccer stadium and people cheered along as they decapitated a
rooster painted with the French flag.
Surely with all this you already have an idea of the animosity they have towards France.
Well, the Gauls maintain a permanent base there, equipped with fighter jets, Reaper
drones and 1,500 troops.
The Macron government has said it supports ECOWAS efforts to return Bazoum to power.
However, chances are that not a single French soldier will move, lest the military junta
is here to stay and agreements such as the one of last May will need to be revised.
(Niger: agreement signed with the French Orano for the exploitation of uranium deposits until
2040)
It is clear that France's interest is to continue exploiting uranium from Niger, which has been
its third largest supplier in recent decades.
Then, the other country that has troops in Niger is the United States.
In total there are more than a thousand troops, deployed in several drone bases.
For the moment, the White House is betting on the diplomatic route.
But it is being asked to take action.
(Niger's ousted leader says he's a hostage and urges U.S. to halt coup – NBC News)
The former president asked for it in a letter to the Washington Post, no less.
Yes, it seems difficult to understand, what kind of coup perpetrators allow their prisoner
to communicate freely with the outside world?
Because following the coup, Bazoum posted a tweet and has even spoken on the phone with
Blinken, with Charles Michel, with Borrell... come on, he was almost a YouTuber.
Nevertheless, neither the White House nor the European Union are making progress in
negotiations with Niger's military junta.
The coup leaders have even refused to receive a tripartite delegation composed of representatives
of ECOWAS, the African Union and the UN.
And do you know what?
The military is very clear about what they want Niger's place in the world to be and
who will be its allies.
Listen up.
(BEYOND THE WALL)
The military juntas of Mali and Burkina Faso offer us the playbook to be followed by the
modern African coup plotter:
The first thing is to attack the former colonial power in every possible way.
They have to be blamed for everything.
In the case of Niger, for example, we have already shown you some examples.
But wait a moment, because they can still do more against France.
In Mali, for example, they eliminated French as an official language and both here and
in Burkina Faso they expelled all the French troops that were there fighting jihadism.
[sarcastic tone] So just a couple of tweaks.
Be that as it may, the next step would be to take positions within this multipolar world.
And in Niger, they have already made their choice.
(Niger's tailors rush to make Russian flags after coup – Reuters)
The coup plotters have created a swathe of military-led countries in Africa stretching
from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.
Most of these countries are now more aligned with Russia than with the West.
Not only that, but they intend to build a wall against the once undisputed Western influence.
VisualPolitik community, neither Russia nor Wagner are involved in the preparations for
the coup d'état in Niger.
But once it has taken place, both are ready to profit from it.
Wagner is spreading throughout Africa like a virus.
In fact, before the Prigozhin mutiny, the mercenaries of the Wagner group were part
of the catalog of services offered by Russia in its diplomatic negotiations.
This is how Wagner is creating a presence in countries such as the Republic of Mali,
where authoritarian regimes hire Prigozhin's men to do their dirty work.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin displaces the West as the influential power in the area.
Putin is very interested in Africa, as demonstrated at the summit just held in St. Petersburg.
So all indications are that Prigozhin will continue his operations on the African continent
as long as he remains useful for Putin's purposes.
And you saw at the beginning of the video that Niger's military junta has asked the
Wagner Group for help.
A group that has taken control of the gold and diamond mines in the Central African Republic,
in Mali, in Sudan.
And what does Niger have for Wagner?
Well, mainly uranium.
Depriving Europe of uranium from Niger would bring a smile to the faces of Putin and Prigozhin,
but it does not seem so attractive to Russian mercenaries.
Something else is needed.
And well, Niger does have the occasional gold mine.
And it also has oil.
In fact, Niger was aiming for a 5-fold increase in its modest crude oil production this year.
The thing is, as those of you who are regulars on VisualPolitik know, Wagner is always out
to make a profit.
Still, this is the least of the military junta's concerns.
The ECOWAS intervention is their number one priority now.
And everything indicates that in the case that the intervention finally does take place,
the coup plotters in Niger would not be on their own.
(Burkina Faso, Mali say military intervention in Niger would be 'declaration of war' – France24)
The walls of the coup plotters are being fortified.
And take note because Algeria and Guinea have also shown their rejection of military intervention.
Meanwhile ECOWAS continues to put pressure on Tchiani's military junta by ordering the
mobilization of its reserve force to restore constitutional order in Niger.
This conflict threatens to directly involve a lot of African countries that have already
stated they will take up arms to defend their positions.
On VisualPolitik we will continue to follow this budding conflict.
But now the questions are for you: Do you think ECOWAS will succeed in restoring democracy
in Niger?
Will any power outside the African continent get directly involved?
Leave us your answer in the comments.
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All the best and see you next time.