Yeah, baby.
The playoffs are just around a corner.
Every team has one more seeding game to play, and while the situation in the Western Conference
still can, and will change, we already know the bracket for the Eastern Conference.
Hey guys, hope all of you are healthy, happy and in a great mood.
This is Purple Prince and today I’ll look at the First Round of the Eastern Conference
Playoffs and give you my predictions.
With one game left to play, There’s only one thing that can really change in the East.
Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers have an identical record.
Right now, Miami has the 4th seed, while Indiana sits on the 5th.
The teams face each other on the last game of these 8 seeding games and it’s clear
that they will face each other in the first round of the playoffs as well.
And, since we don’t have such thing as a homecourt advantage in these playoffs, the
game really doesn’t have that added value to it.
But, if anything you could argue that the winner of this game will carry somewhat of
momentum into the playoffs.
But let’s go by the order.
First, we have the #1 seed of the Eastern Conference - Milwaukee Bucks, facing the #8
seeded Orlando Magic.
Yes, it’s a bubble in Orlando, so you could say that the Orlando Magic is the one team
that sorta has this homecourt advantage, but the Bucks are just so much better all around.
First, they have one of the best, if not the best player in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo,
they have another all-star in Khris Middleton, they are also deeper.
And, Orlando lost their starting small forward for the season, in Jonathan Isaac just 3 games
into the bubble.
Both teams met 4 times during the regular season.
All 4 times were before the bubble, and the Bucks won all those games by an average margin
of 14.5 points.
The Bucks carry the league’s best offense, they are 3rd when it comes to making field
goals and also 3rd with 13.8 made three-pointers a game.
The only real weakness they have is free-throw shooting.
As a team, they are ranked just 26th in free throw percentage, and their superstar Giannis
is a below-average free throw shooter.
Orlando Magic, on the other hand, has one of the worst offenses in the league, scoring
just 106.9 points per game - number 26 in the league.
They are ranked 27th in field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point percentage.
They do make their free throws better than the Bucks, but I don’t think the difference
in this stat will be that significant since everything else is so much worse.
The Bucks are also by far the best rebounding team in the league, while Orlando ranks just
15th and they are the 6th best passing team in the league while Orlando ranks number 18th
in that category.
As far as defense goes, the Bucks have a TOP6 defense in points allowed.
They are the best defense when it comes to opponent’s field goal percentage, but they
rank only 15th in 3pt defense.
Orlando actually is ranked right above the Bucks in points allowed, but that’s because
of the slower pace they play.
They are ranked no 18th in opponents field goal percentage and are just 23rd when it
comes to guarding the 3-pointers against their opposition.
Every way you look, Milwaukee is just miles better than Orlando.
Now, because of Giannis headbutting Mo Wagner, there was a chance that he could be suspended
for at least the first game of the playoffs, which would give Orlando a much better chance
in Game 1, but we’ve found out, that he has been suspended only for the last seeding
game of the regular season.
I would love to see a path for Orlando winning at least one game, since they are pretty much
the only home team in the playoffs, and anything can happen.
Nobody expected Orlando to grab a game from Toronto in last year’s playoffs.
This time around, I don’t think it happens though.
Milwaukee hasn’t looked great in the bubble, but Orlando has been even worse, currently
riding a 5 game losing streak.
Add to the fact that they won’t have Jonathan Isaac and as much as I would love for this
series to go more than 4 games,
My prediction is that this will be a quick sweep - 4-0 in favor of Milwaukee.
Moving on, we have the 2nd seeded Toronto Raptors facing off against the 7th seeded
Brooklyn Nets.
On paper, this also looks like an easy pick.
Yes, Toronto lost Kawhi during the summer, but the defending champs have been great this
season even without him.
Brooklyn on the other hand, started the season without Kevin Durant, during the season they
lost Kyrie Irving, and before the bubble, they lost Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince
, DeAndre Jordan, and Wilson Chandler.
The Nets roster is just decimated.
And that Jamal Crawford signing - he played just 6 minutes before injuring his hamstring.
With all the injuries the Nets have been playing really well in the bubble.
They even beat the Los Angeles Clippers, but this is where the fairy tale ends.
Let’s go to some stats.
The teams met each other 4 times this season, all before the bubble, and the Raptors were
victorious in 3 out of 4 meetings.
Toronto has the 13th best offense in the league scoring 112.7 points per game.
They do miss some shots, ranking just 21st in field goal percentage, but they compensate
for that with excellent distance shooting.
37.2% success rate from deep - the 6th best in the league.
They convert their free throws - no.
7 in the league and they are decent in rebounding the ball - no.
12 in the league.
For the Nets, they have a slightly worse offense - no.
17, slightly worse FG % - no.
26, and even with Joe Harris in the lineup, they convert on only 34.2% of their 3-pointers
- number 25 in the league.
They are bad in shooting free throws - also no.
25, but they are the 2nd best rebounding team in the league.
All these offensive stats though - you have to take into account that all their best players
did contribute for a good portion of that, and now, they don’t have them anymore.
Defensively, that’s where Toronto gains some ground.
It has the best defense in the league allowing their opponents to score just 106.5 points
per game, they are the 2nd best in field goal percentage and the best guarding the 3-point
line.
Brooklyn on the other hand ranks 18th, 5th, and 9th in those categories.
Again these are the stats from the whole regular season, so I assume if we would look just
at the players in the bubble, the stats would be much worse for the Nets.
Both teams have looked very good in the bubble, but I just don’t see the Raptors, being
the defending champions, slipping even once in the series.
They have the better team, the better coach, the better experience.
My prediction.
Also a sweep, although some games might be close.
This year was never supposed to be the year in which Brooklyn contends for a championship.
Toronto will.
4:0 Toronto wins and moves on.
Next, we have the 3rd seeded Boston Celtics going against the 6th seeded Philadelphia
76ers.
This was supposed to be such a great matchup, but now it seems that all the intrigue has
been killed.
Ben Simmons had left knee surgery and is expected to miss the rest of the season.
Joel Embiid is banged up with an ankle injury.
There’s no certain answer about him playing in the series, and even if he does, can he
stay healthy.
Well, Philly does have 2 other $100 million men, but they aren’t the stars.
Once again, let’s go into some stats.
The teams met 4 times during the regular season, and actually, Philly won 3 of those meetings.
But Ben Simmons played in all of those games, and Joel Embiid played in 3 of them.
If none of them plays, it could be a fast wrap.
For the whole season, the theme for the Sixers was - is this a home game or a road game?
They were virtually unbeatable at home and one of the worst teams on the road.
Now, on neutral grounds, you just wonder, how much that impacts their performance.
They currently are carrying a 3 game losing streak while the Celtics are complete opposite
- they are on a 4-game winning streak.
The Celtics have the 9th best offense in the league, they are 15th in field goal percentage
and 11th in 3-point percentage.
Celtics also make 80% of their free throws - 5th in the league
and rebound the ball pretty well - 8th in the league.
Philadelphia, meanwhile are just 21st in points per game, 12th in field goal percentage and
12th in 3-point percentage.
They are much worse in converting their free throws - 22nd in the league and even with
Embiid and Horford, they are worse in rebounding - 10th in the league.
Defensively, Boston holds their opponents to 107.5 points per game - 3rd best, they
are 4th in opponent’s fg% and 2nd in opponents 3 point percentage.
Basically, they’re great defensively.
Philadelphia isn’t half bad as well - holding their opponents to 108.5 points per game - 8th
in the league, but they do allow opponents to shoot 46.3% from the field and 35.6% from
the three - both 16th best marks in the league.
So with all that in mind, what can we expect in this series?
We know Ben Simmons won’t be there, but that could actually be a blessing in disguise.
The Simmons Embiid combo hasn’t really worked in big moments.
And with Simmons failing to develop a consistent outside shot you saw Embiid sticking behind
the 3-point line way too much.
Now with Simmons out of the lineup, Embiid, if healthy, could really punish the Celtics
inside the paint.
There’s nobody big enough on the Celtics to really give Embiid problems in the paint.
But that is a big if - his health.
If Embiid stays healthy and somehow leads the 76ers past the Celtics, I think it could
be a big sign that Simmons is the one who needs to be traded away to form a new team,
a different style of a team, preferably with a point guard who can shoot.
And another question in this series, a big one, in my opinion, is this it for Brett Brown
as the head coach of the Sixers?
The guy has been there for a while and he’s the Marvin Lewis of the NBA.
Having great talent, but unable to lead them to anything meaningful.
How long will he stick around if they keep failing?
From Boston’s perspective, you have to feel like the best team in this series.
Not only you have a better all-around team, but you have a better record, better performances
so far in the bubble, and you actually have a lot of good players who can close for you
when necessary.
I’ll assume Joel Embiid is healthy going into the series, and if so, they even have
a chance to win this.
If he’s dominant inside, that will open up some opportunities for the shooters and
a lot of good things can happen, but even with everything going right, I do think Boston
is a better team and my prediction is that they close this series in 6 games - 4 to 2
Boston wins.
Philadelphia, hopefully, gets a different head coach and they think real hard before
going into another season with the pairing of Embiid and Simmons.
And last but not least, we have the Miami Heat facing off against the Indiana Pacers.
We don’t know yet who will be the 4th or the 5th seed, but we know they’ll play each
other in the first round of the playoffs.
First things first - TJ Warren has been absolutely spectacular for the Pacers.
He started his bubble journey with 53 points against Philadelphia and has had 3 more 30+
point performances since.
He just might be the hottest player coming into this series.
Oladipo, after all, is playing for the Pacers, but his contributions so far have been rather
insignificant.
Insignificant as to comparing to the all-star level he was playing at before his injury.
On Miami’s side, you always have your all-stars in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Tyler Herro just scored career-high 30 points, and Kendrick Nunn is about to finish his quarantine.
So far in this season, both teams have met 3 times with Miami winning all 3 meetings.
They will meet again for the last game of the bubble, but I would expect none of the
teams will fully play their best players considering nothing is really on the line.
Miami has the league’s 15th best offense scoring 112.3 points per game.
They are 8th in field goal percentage and the best team in the league in making their
three-pointers.
They’re average when it comes to making free throws and rebounding the ball.
Indiana doesn’t score as much - 23rd in the league, but they are 3rd in field goal
percentage and 13th in making their 3-pointers.
They are slightly better in converting their free throws, but they’re also a bottom-5
rebounding team.
Defensively, Indiana has the edge, ranking 4th in opponent’s points per game, while
Miami is 11th.
Both teams are neck in neck in opponent’s field goal percentage.
Miami is 7th and Pacers are 8th, and they’re also quite similar guarding the 3-point line.
Indiana is 4th, while Miami ranks 7th.
Seems like a very close matchup, and it should be.
All-around I would say the Heat have a better roster, and if you ignore Warren’s recent
rise and remember that Oladipo is still not a 100%, you could say that the Heat have the
2 best players in this series in Butler and Adebayo.
Man, this should be close.
I do think that Miami will win though.
I don’t know why, I just always want to think that Pat Riley will figure everything
out and the experience of Eric Spoelstra in leading a team into deep runs will prevail.
There are just so much more proven things with Miami - coach, their best players.
I also don’t expect Warren to be as hot as he was in the beginning of the bubble.
And Oladipo probably won’t return to his all-star form this season.
My prediction, the games in this series are very close, but Miami will win most of them.
4 - 2.
Indiana will make it interesting, and snatch a couple of games, maybe even the first one
of the series, but in the end, Heat beats the Pacers in 6 games and moves on to the
second round.
So these are my predictions for the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
I don’t think I went bold with any of my predictions.
I just don’t see any upsets here.
What do you think guys?
Who wins?
What happens?
Is there any possible upset I’m missing on?
Please leave a comment below with your predictions.
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As soon as we find out the last seed for the West, the predictions for the Western Conference
will be out as well.
Thanks.
That’s it from me for now.
This was Purple Prince and I’m out!