I'M RUDABEH.
AND THIS IS OUR CONTINUOUS
COVERAGE.
IT'S 5:00 AND A NEW ADVISORY
FOR IRMA.
LET'S GET OVER TO CRAIG
SETZER.
YOU JUST GOT THAT INFORMATION.
IT JUST CAME IN I. TRIED TO
SLAM THE GRAPHICS TOGETHER.
I HAVE TO MOVE THE LITTLE
POINTS AROUND.
LET'S FIRST TALK ABOUT WHAT'S
GOING ON THEN WHAT THE NEW
ADVISORY SHOWS US.
FIRST OFF, WE WERE GOING TO BE
TALKING IN THE COMING DAY.
THE LARGE TODAY AND LONGITUDE.
LATITUDE WAS 22.0.
IT'S 22.1.
SO STILL GOING MORE WEST THAN
NORTH.
WE CAN ALSO TELL THAT BY THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION THERE.
280 SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST.
AND THE REASON I'M SHOWING THIS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST THE BIG W
THERE IS BECAUSE EVERY FIVE OR
10 DEGREES THAT IT TURNS,
POTENTIALLY HAS AN IMPACT IN
SOUTH FLORIDA AS TO WHERE THE
WORST OF THE WEATHER WOULD GO.
SPEEDS 12 MILES PER HOUR.
IT'S GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN.
ONE OF THE THINGS WE KNOW ABOUT
TROPICAL CYCLONES AND
HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS,
AS THEY ROUND HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE OR STEERING
CURRENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS
THEY ANTICIPATE A TURN, AS THEY
ARE CARRIED ALONG
THROUGH A TURN THEY SHOW DOWN A
LITTLE BIT.
SO THEY'RE GOING THIS WAY, THEN
THEY COME TIE A POINT WHERE THE
STEERING WINDS STARTING TO LICE
EN UP, GIVING
THEM THE OPPORTUNITY TO GO
NORTH.
SO THAT SPEED COMING DOWN, IS
EXPECTED.
THERE'S NO SURPRISES HERE.
THIS IS ALL EXPECTED WHAT IS
CONCERNING IS THAT THE WIND IS
STILL SO HIGH.
WHEN IT CAME DOWN TO CATEGORY 4
TODAY, AND I SAW SOME HEADLINES
IN PLACES THAT SAID IRMA
DECREASES THE CATEGORY 4.
THE WINDS HAD ONLY DROPPED
ABOUT 10 MILES PER HOUR.
AND WE'RE STILL UP IN THIS
RANGE.
JUST SHY OF CATEGORY 5.
CATEGORY5 IS 157 MILES PER
HOUR.
WE'RE RIGHT AT CATEGORY 5 OR
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW IT.
THAT IS THE WIND IN THE CORE,
NOT THE WHOLE STORM.
JUST IN THE CORE.
THE REASON THAT WE TALK SO
MUCH ABOUT THE CORE, THE EYE
WALL, IS BECAUSE WHERE THAT
GOES, THAT'S WHERE
THERE'S THE MOST DAMAGE.
THAT'S WHERE IF IT'S OVER WATER
APPROACHING LAND THERE'S THE
GREATEST STORM SURGE.
THAT'S WHERE IF IT GOES OVER
LAND, THERE WILL BE THE MOST
DESTRUCTION.
THAT'S THE MOST DANGEROUS PART.
BUT BECAUSE WE DON'T KNOW
BECAUSE IT'S ROUNDING THIS HIGH
PRESSURE BLOCK IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, WE DON'T KNOW
EXACTLY WHERE IT'S GOING TO
MAKE THAT TURN, WE HAVE TO
PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CATEGORY 4 STORM.
SO LETS GO INTO MOTION AND I'LL
SHOW YOU WHAT THE FORECAST
TRACK IS.
THIS WAS THE SATURDAY EVENING
8:00 P.M.
TIME FRAME.
VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF
CUBA.
NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THERE MAY BE SOME LAND
INTERACTION AND THAT MIGHT ALSO
IMPACT INTENSITY BUT THIS IS
WHAT REALLY SHOULD JUMP OUT TO
EVERYBODY.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS TO GO
BACK UP TO CATEGORY 5 AND GO
THROUGH THE KEYS BECAUSE THE
ONLY WAY TO GET TO FLORIDA
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WAY COMING
FROM THE SOUTH IS THROUGH THE
KEYS.
SO I THINK IT CAN'T BE
IMPRESSED UPON PEOPLE ENOUGH,
ESPECIALLY IN THE KEYS, HOW BAD
OF A SITUATION THIS IS.
THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A
CATEGORY 5 HIT THE KEYS, IT WAS
IN 1935 CALLED THE GREAT LABOR
DAY HURRICANE.
HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE
WERE KILLED.
WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE STORM
FORMED INTERSECTION BAHAMAS, IT
MARCHED EAST US INTENSIFIED
VERY QUICKLY.
A SMALL, SMALL HURRICANE.
KIND OF LIKE AN ANDREW.
IT CAME THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS,
THERE WAS A TRAIN THAT THEY
SENT DOWN FROM MIAMI TO TRY TO
RESCUE PEOPLE.
THEY HAD A BUNCH OF WORKERS
WORKING ON A PROJECT TO BUILD
BRIDGES DOWN THERE.
THEY SENT THE TRAIN DOWN AND
THE STORM SURGE CAME OVER AND
IT WASHED THE TRAIN OFF THE
TRACKS.
LAID ON THE SIDE, PEOPLE IN THE
TRAIN LITERALLY STOOD ON THE
CARS ON THE SEATS IN THE CARS
OF THE TRAIN TRYING TO KEEP
THEIR HEAD ABOVE WATER.
THE STORM WAS SO POWERFUL THEY
FOUND BODIES FROM KEYS OVER
HERE, IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THEY WERE WASHED ACROSS THE
BAY.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS
SITUATION.
FOR THOSE IN THE KEYS WHO SAY,
I'VE RIDDEN THEM OUT, YOU MAY
NOT RIDE THIS ONE OUT.
THIS ONE ALSO MAY TAKE OUT THE
BRIDGES.
THE MAYOR YESTERDAY IN KEY WEST
WAS TALKING ABOUT LOSING
CONNECTION WITH THE MAINLAND.
THAT THEY COULD BUILD BOAT
BRIDGES AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
THE POSSIBILITY IS VERY REAL
THAT THE 7-MILE BRIDGE OR PARTS
OF IT, COULD BE JUST WASHED OFF
ITS FOUNDATION.
AND SEPARATING THE LOWER KEYS
FROM THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
OR EVEN THE MIDDLE KEYS QUITE
POSSIBLY.
THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS
SITUATION I. DON'T KNOW THE
STATUS OF EVACUATIONS.
I'VE BEEN FOLLOWING THE MEET
ROLLING A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY
U.Y THERE'S EVACUATIONS GOING
ON YOU NEED TO GET
OUT OF THE KEYS.
I WAS GOING TO ASK YOU ABOUT
THAT.
WE SAW SOME PEOPLE AS LATE AS
LAST NIGHT THERE WERE MANDATORY
EVACUATIONS IN THE KEYS AND KEY
WEST PEOPLE PLANNING TO STAY
THERE.
THEY WERE DRINKING AT BARE AND
PLANNING TO TOUGH IT OUT.
OBVIOUSLY, A HORRIBLE IDEA.
BUT FOR PEOPLE IN THE KEYS WHO
ARE WATCHING US RIGHT NOW WITH
THIS LATEST ADVISORY, WHAT'S
THE ADMINISTRATIVE
LEAVE VICE NOW?
WELL, GET OUT.
I MEAN, NUMBER 1, YOU'RE NOT
GOING TO SURVIVE THE STORM
SURGE EVENT BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT
KILLS PEOPLE.
IT'S NOT A RAIN FLOOD.
THIS IS THE OCEAN COMING OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN AND INTO
FLORIDA BAY HERE.
AND YOU MAY NOT SURVIVE THE
WIND.
ALTHOUGH VERY FEW DEATHS OCCUR
FROM THE WIND DIRECTLY.
ONLY ONE IN 10 ARE FROM THE
WIND.
BUT THIS IS A TREMENDOUS NOW
STORM SURGE EVENT.
THIS HAS GREAT IMPLICATIONS ON
THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
THIS MOUND OF WATER, THAT'S
GOING TO BE RUSHING ALONG WITH
THE CENTER THERE IN THE EYE
WALL, THE CORE OF THE
STORM IS GOING TO RUSHY WASH UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
THERE COULD BE VERY, VERY DEEP
INUNDATION.
THIS IS NOT VERY HEAVILY
POPULATED.
AS WE SAW WITH CHARLEY AND
STUFF.
MARCO ISLAND VERY MUCH URGED
THE GUN.
LET ME ANSWER THE QUESTION.
IS THIS GOOD NEWS FOR US?
BECAUSE WELL, LOOK, WE'RE
ALMOST OUT OF THE CONE.
EVERYBODY AT HOME SHOULD SHAKE
THEIR HEAD NO.
WE'RE STILL GOING TO FEEL A
HURRICANE HERE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THEY MAY FEEL IT
MORE SEVERELY IN THE KEYS AND
JUST WEST OF HERE.
RIGHT NOW, AND I DIDN'T CHECK
THE LATEST ADVISORY.
HAD THE EYE 40 MILES WIDE.
THAT'S A 40-MILE SWATH OR 50-
MILE SWATH OF 150 MILE-PER-HOUR
WINDS MOVING ALONG AND JUST
CREATING DESTRUCTION
WHEREVER IT GOES.
SO BACK TO OUR MESSAGE OF WHEN
ARE WE GOING TO KNOW WHERE IT'S
GOING TO GO, THE CORE?
THAT'S TOMORROW NIGHT.
I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT
STORM SURGE AS WE LOOK AT THE
SORT OF THEING WEST WARDING OF
THAT CONE RIGHT THERE.
WE HAVE A LOT OF VIEWERS OUT
HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHO LIVE
IN WESTERN BROWARD, WESTON, OF
COURSE, AND
PARKLAND AND SUNRISE, ALL OF
THOSE AREAS UP THERE.
DOES THIS MEAN IF IT DOES SHIFT
WEST AND IS MORE OF A SORT OF A
DIRECT HIT ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST, THAT THE
PEOPLE IN WEST BROWARD IN OUR
VIEWING AREA ARE GOING TO FIND
THEMSELVES IN MORE TROUBLE?
RIGHT.
SO HURRICANES HAVE WHAT WE CALL
A GRADIENTS TO THE WIND.
MEANING THAT IT GETS STRONGER
STRONGER.
SOME OF THEM HAVE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE CENTER.
UNFORTUNATELY, WHEN A HURRICANE
MAKES A TURN HAS SOME LAND
INTERACTIONS AND STARTING TO GO
NORTH LIKE THIS THE WIND FIELD
MAY SPREAD OUT.
WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE.
WE'LL HAVE A BETTER IDEA WHEN
THE HURRICANE MAKES THIS TURN.
THIS IS TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE HURRICANE HUNT IS ARE
FLYING THIS THING LIKE CRAZY
AND THEY WILL TELL US HOW BIG
THAT WIND FIELD IS.
PROBABLY BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
WE'RE STILL 24 HOURS AWAY.
WE'LL HAVE AN IDEA ABOUT
WESTERN BROWARD, WESTERN MIAMI-
DADE.
IT OF IS IT GOING TO BE MORE
INLAND TYPE OF EVENT?
WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LATER
MODELS THIS EVENING START TO
COME BACK EAST WITH IT, AGAIN.
SO THE BOTTOM LINE HERE, I KNOW
I'M KIND OF GOTTEN A SERIOUS
FACE BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE MESSAGE FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS NOT CHANGED
AT ALL.
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MAJOR HURRICANE EVENT IN
SOUTH FLORIDA.
OF COURSE, SOMEWHERE IN THE
KEYS BECAUSE GUESS WHAT, THE
KEYS STRETCH OUT FROM KEY WEST
ALL THE WAY UP TO
ELIOTT KEY UP THERE IN BISCAYNE
BAY.
THEY COVER THE ENTIRE CONE.
SO THE KEYS SOMEWHERE IN THE
KEYS THE CORE IS GOING TO GO.
BUT WE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE CONE THERE, THAT JUST MEANS
THAT WE'RE ON THE EDGE WHERE
IT'S POSSIBLE FOR
THE CORE TO GO.
SO LET ME JUST MOVE ALONG HERE
REAL QUICKLY AND SHOW YOU ONE
MORE GRAPHIC.
THIS IS GOING TO BE -- AND I
GUESS I SHOULD STRESS THIS A
LITTLE BIT MORE.
THIS IS NOT ONLY OUR PROBLEM.
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE ENTIRE
STATE'S PROBLEM.
IT'S GOING TO BE A STORM SURGE
FLOOD EVENT, ESPECIALLY IF THE
STORM STAYS JUST OFF SHORE.
BUT EVEN ON SHORE, ONCE THAT
CENTER PASSES TO THE NORTH, THE
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO AN
ON SHORE NEW
YEAR'S EVE AND THE WATER' GOING
TO COME RUSHING IN BEHIND THE
STORM.
I HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO TALK TO
THE FOLKS IN TAMPA.
I'M SURE THEY'RE UNDER
EVACUATION ORDERS.
THEY'VE GOT TO BE.
THIS IS A VERY, VERY LIFE-
THREATENING SITUATION.
ALSO ON THE EAST COAST.
THE WIND FIELD IS SO BIG
THERE'S THE STORM SURGE UP THE
EAST COAST.
FOR OUR FRIENDS THAT MAY BE
WATCHING NORTH FLORIDA, THE
THREAT IS STILL THERE IN THE
CAROLINAS.
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST, AND
EVEN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AND THEN DEEPER UP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.
THERE'S RAINFALL THREAT WITH
THE SYSTEM UP THERE.
LET ME SHOW YOU A COUPLE MORE
GRAPHICS.
THIS IS THIS THING I'VE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT THIS HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GRAPHIC.
IT SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
YOU CAN SEE THE NUMBERS
EXTREMELY HIGH IN THE MIDDLE
KEYS.
DOWN TO KEY WEST.
YESTERDAY, KEY WEST NUMBER WAS
12.
LOOK AT IT NOW.
54.
SO PEOPLE THAT WERE THINKING
OH, WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE A
HURRICANE AND WE SAID, YOU
KNOW, THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD
SHIFT WEST.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF THAT POSSIBILITY NOW.
RIGHT INTO NAPLES, FORT MYERS,
THESE AREAS HERE, REALLY COULD
FEEL THE BRUNT OF THIS AREA.
SO UP THE EAST COAST THERE, YOU
CAN SEE THE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITIES, THEY'VE GONE
DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT.
BUT REMEMBER, KEY WEST
YESTERDAY WAS 12.
WE'VE BEEN UP TO 54 OR 56.
WE'RE NOW DOWN TO 23.
WE COULD GO BACK UP IF THE KEN
SHIFTS A LITTLE BIT.
WE SHOULDN'T GET TOO CUFF OF
COMFORTABLE IN THIS FEELING
THAT THIS IS A WEST WARD SHIFT.
THE STORM IS STILL 36 HOURS
AWAY.
THIS IS NOT A TIME TO RELAX AT
ALL.
CRAIG, I JUST CAN'T STOP
LOOKING AT THE KEYS ON THE
GRAPHICS.
JUST LOOKS SO DEVASTATING SO
WHAT -- GIVE US AN IDEA OF THE
AFTERMATH OF THE STORMS.
YOU MENTIONED THE BRIDGES COULD
BE WIPED OUT.
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FIRST
RESPONDERS TO GET THERE.
A LONG TIME TO GET AID TO SOUTH
FLORIDA IN GENERAL.
I CAN'T IMAGINE GETTING TO THE
ISLANDS IN THE KEYS, WHAT'S
LEFT OF THEM.
THE INITIAL RESPONSE WILL BE
BY AIR.
THE COAST GUARD DOES AN AMAZING
JOB AFTER A HURRICANE GETTING
DOWN IN BAD WEATHER AND TRYING
TO BE THE FIRST
ON THE SCENE TO TAKE CARE OF
IT.
BUT YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT --
IF YOU DRIVE THROUGH THE KEYS,
THE KEYS -- IT'S A FISHING KIND
OF THING HERE.
SO THERE'S A LOT OF BOATS IN