- [Narrator] What's up Trainiacs, I'm about to head off to
Kona because it's world championship season.
I am literally spending two-and-a-half weeks at the
IRONMAN World Championship and to kick it off,
as we always do for these world championship events,
we are going to go through who I think is
going to place well on the men's and the women's side.
I wrote the script for this
and holy smokes is it intense this year!
(upbeat music)
Let's get right into it and we're gonna start off
with the women's side.
Now if I said anything besides Daniela Ryf was hands down
the favorite, I'd be lying to you.
Until somebody else proves that they can beat her in...
anything whatsoever she is the
queen of long-distance triathlon in both the Half-IRONMAN
and the IRONMAN distance races.
There've been a couple of times in the past five years
that she has not won, she is making a strong case
for herself being one of the best if not
the best long-distance triathletes male or female, ever.
So to pick anyone other than her when she hasn't shown
any chinks in the armor would be silly.
But, that said, I think that there are two athletes that are
gonna make her work for it, more than she has in any other
event that she's been in.
And we call those, the potential upsetters.
Of course, the first potential upsetter and this is kinda
the next great long-distance triathlete
on the female circuit is gonna be Lucy Charles.
Lucy has proven that she scares Daniela in the race
she comes close.
She is in the lead out of the swim
and over the past couple of years she has not let
Daniela Ryf bike away from her very easily.
In the Half-Ironman World Championships, she ended up
getting a five-minute drafting penalty.
Now if you take that five-minute drafting penalty away,
that alone puts Lucy in second behind Daniela Ryf by just
a couple of minutes.
But the thing about it is that if you aren't in that hunt to
win the race, did Lucy push as hard as she could have
on the run.
I know that her run fitness is better than it's ever been,
so, a couple of minutes behind Ryf in Nice, could've been
more like a couple seconds in behind if she had Ryf
in her sights coming off the bike.
So I think that that could be what happens here in Kona.
Similar to what we've seen in the past couple of years where
Lucy gets out front in the swim, she bikes on her own
for a long time, Daniela Ryf comes up in behind her
and passes her, Lucy ends up bridging that gap hanging on to
her for as long as she can staying very close if not right
with her coming out of transition,
and then it becomes a running race
and seeing how well Lucy is able to run this year,
we could have ourselves a head-to-head matchup.
Next athlete that I think could also do that is Anne Haug.
Now Anne, has been pulling out of races over the past few
months so we don't know exactly how fit she is
but we know, that in IRONMAN Copenhagen earlier this year,
she did an 8:31.
There aren't too many women out there in the world that have
flirted with that 8:30 time in a full IRONMAN distance race.
Were those withdrawals from those races
because she's injured?
Because she's unfit?
Or because she's just focusing on Kona?
I would probably say a combination of focusing on Kona
and maybe just little bits of niggle injuries that she
didn't wanna exacerbate going in to Kona.
Thing about Annie is she needs to have made a big leap on
the bike to make sure that when she gets off the bike in
transition two, that she's close enough to Ryf and Lucy to
run them down.
She's probably the best female runner in the field
so if she's close enough,
she could run her way into the lead
and she's got the speed the if she gets herself
into the lead, nobody's catching her.
Now there are also some serious podium threats out there
and it's a really really deep field this year.
Laura Phillip, I think that she could be a Kona winner
someday but it's her first time on the island
and first time island athletes tend not to contend
for the win.
Maybe a podium spot.
Sarah True.
Same sort of thing.
I think that she could potentially win Kona one day
but she's had to race three full IRONMAN's in the last
four months which takes a lot of you.
It's getting harder and harder to qualify as a pro
if things don't go exactly according to plan,
and they haven't for Sarah this year.
Heather Jackson and Mirinda Carfrae are always in that
top three-five but personally I think that their absolute
best races are behind them and it's getting so competitive
on the podium that you have to be on point,
as fit as you possibly can in swim, bike and run.
And I don't know if they've got that well rounded ability
enough to contend for a win or the podium anymore.
And Sarah Crowley, she's shown in the last two years
she's been really really focused on Kona
and really consistent in Kona with a podium position
a couple of years ago and a... kind of like a fuzzy podium
like a top five sort of podium last year.
But she goes around the world circuit being very consistent
race after race.
She's stayed healthy.
And this long-distance kinda race gives her enough room to
show that run speed that she's got.
Now I think that there are a couple of surprises that could
potentially get into the top 5,
maybe if everything goes according to plan,
maybe get on the podium.
And I think those two athletes are Susie Cheetham who's had
two sixth-place finishes in Kona
and two pretty bad disasters.
But also Sarah Piampiano who also had some top ten finishes
in Kona but she has littered the podiums with first and
second places for the past two years consistently
and getting her on our Triathlon Taryn podcast just recently
we know that she's putting in a big block of training
very fit, very healthy and if she dials everything for Kona,
she's got the run legs to be able to run her way
on to the podium as well.
Now on to the men's race.
Frankly, I can't pick a clear winner.
I've always hated those previews where it's like well here
are kinda the favorites but we can't say who's gonna win.
And I always said who I though was going to win
but this year it's really really hard to do.
Patrick Lange, I have to say is the man to beat.
Because until you prove that you can beat Patrick Lange in
Kona, can you beat Patrick in Kona.
Now the thing about Patrick is that every single year
he makes it really hard for me to pick him as a favorite in
Kona and then he goes and sets records.
Now I am not going to look like such a boob this year
and I am going to say that because Patrick is so well suited
for Kona and he builds his entire season around it
and he hasn't really gone deep into the well in any race
all through out the year.
As long as he's fit and there isn't anything underlying that
has caused him to not put out great races over the remainder
of the year leading into now, I think that he is going to do
what Patrick Lange does.
And that's drop it like it's hot in Kona.
He's built for that course.
The reason that I can't pick him as the clear favorite
and I don't know which one it's gonna be is because if you
said Taryn, you're an idiot Patrick's gonna fall on his face
and Jan Frodeno is the favorite I'd probably say,
yeah, okay, yeah I buy that too.
He is one of the kings of Kona being so so dominant over the
years and I had a theory after his injury that kept him out
of Kona in 2018 that if he came back healthy to one race,
that Jan might not ever lose a race for the rest
of his career.
That he would only enter races if he knew he was fit enough
and prepared enough to win the race because
I think that's the legacy that Jan wants to leave on.
So him towing the line on the race start, I think that he is
absolutely, positively one of the best chances to unseat
Patrick Lange?
He's got the swim arms, he's got the bike legs,
he's got the running feet, he's awesome.
And I think that he could potentially win.
The next athlete that I think could really come out of like
well he's not an unexpected athlete because he was the 2014
champion is Sebastian Kienle.
Why I've always had Sebastian Kienle as like a top five
kinda athlete is because he wasn't well rounded enough to
contend against these now hard on the swim,
hard on the bike, hard on the run kinda athletes that have
now come into IRONMAN distance racing.
But now with Sebastian, his swim kinda is what it is,
his bike is world-class so we know he's gonna be coming out
of T2 near if not at the front
and more importantly than anything
he's putting out run performances that I never thought he'd
be capable of.
Putting out the second fastest run split of the day at
Half-IRONMAN World Championships in Nice faster than amazing
runners like Alistair Brownlee shows that Sebi is running
better than he ever has in his life
and if he's already at the front coming out of T2,
and he can potentially run with Jan, with Patrick,
we're gonna be able to see a showdown
and then it comes down to who can suffer the most,
who wants it the most, who nailed their nutrition,
who nailed their taper.
It comes down to like half a percent of a percent
and at that point, it's kinda luck of the draw.
I think that there are two athletes that could be podium
threats that we'd be silly not to say they have a really
good chance to be on the podium... maybe if everything goes
really well potentially win.
First one being Alistair Brownlee.
Now Alistair Brownlee you've heard me say it before
I think he is one of if not the best like, one day racer.
Take all of the nicks and niggles and injury issues that
he's had over his career out of the equation
and he is probably the single most talented triathlete that
there's ever been.
However, he's a first timer in Kona
and all of the people who picked Javier Gomez last year
because he too is one of the best athletes
that there's ever been, not recognizing that there's a
learning curve to Kona, they learned a lesson.
Javier learned a lesson.
And I think Alistair has to learn some lessons at Kona
before he can win.
The second athlete that I think could sneak his way onto
the podium is the sneakiest athlete, the quitest athlete
that has been on the podium for the past two years
and that's David McNamee.
Even amongst all these talented athletes and people who go,
ra ra Lionel, Patrick, Jan, Sebi, all of these favorites
that are out there, David consistently just kinda runs his
way quietly onto the podium and then says all right thanks
I'll do the same next year.
And last year he said that
he wants to work really hard at edging that out to
a first or a second place onto the podium.
The thing about David, is that he needs to have made really
big strides in his bike performance to make sure that he
doesn't have a 10, 12, 15 minute gap to run his way onto
that podium coming out of T2.
Now there could be a few unexpected surprises out there.
Now with the depth of the field on the men's side
I don't expect this to happen but there are a few athletes
that I think could surprise us.
Certainly with a top 5 if not a podium.
The first being Tim O'Donnell who is almost always over the
past few years the top American
and he's been on the podium, he's been on the kinda sorta
top five podium just recently.
However, he's got a run injury and like I say when you're
going up against the fittest of the fit who put everything
into this one race, having any sort of chink in your armor
makes it really tough.
Braden Currie I think is the next athlete that could
surprise us.
He's all over podiums all around the world.
He finished fifth last year and he seems to be really
well rounded, really fit.
Just generally a quality athlete and it's that consistency
paired with some knowledge about how to race Kona
that starts getting people up from like top 30 as he did
a couple years ago to top five as he did last year
to podium.
And then finally, we gotta acknowledge the crowd favorite
Lionel Sanders.
Now Lionel just two years ago was a matter of minutes away
from winning everything.
He's got run speed and bike speed to be able to win this at
some point in his career.
But when you haven't had basically a full season of training
due to an injury as Lionel has, and you're going up against
those best of the best, it's gonna be tough.
Even if you are the best of the best, do you have the depth
of fitness that you need like an insanely huge
depth of fitness is what's required to win Kona.
So, surprise me Lionel.
I want you to.
It's great for the sport, I'm a fan.
So, go ahead and do it.
Now Trainiacs, those are my picks for who's gonna do well in
Kona.
I wanna hear your picks.
Who's gonna finish first, second, third on the men's and the
women's side in the comments below.
In addition to that we are announcing that
we are partnering up with Roka for the entire Kona series
and if you wanna win a wetsuit, an entry to your choice of
an IRONMAN race, floaty pants, awesome shades, go to
roka.com/tarynwear all throughout the Kona buildup,
every single video that we do that's appropriate is going
to be sponsored by Roka and the giveaway is going to be
running over the next couple of weeks.
Go to roka.com/taryn all you have to do is put in your
email address and you can win one of three prizes totalling
... I think it's $3000, $4000?
It's good stuff.
And you can look as cool as me.
So that's it.
Kona's happening.
Best time of the year.
Christmas comes in October for us.
Trainiacs, let's do it.
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