Boris Johnson's new government is going hell
for leather for a no-deal Brexit.
The new British prime minister has entered office
saying he will only talk about a new Brexit deal with the EU
if it doesn't include that troublesome Irish border
backstop.
The EU says they're not interested.
So Mr Johnson, instead, is ramping up preparations
to leave on October the 31 without a deal.
But many MPs in parliament aren't happy with this
and are trying to challenge Mr Johnson's new policy.
But there are so many questions about
whether they have to bring down his government,
whether they can force his hand and, most importantly,
whether they have the power to stop a no-deal Brexit.
The main supporting MPs in parliament
are becoming increasingly convinced the only way
to stop a no-deal Brexit is to bring down
Mr Johnson's government.
Mr Johnson only has a working majority in parliament of one.
And the numbers for winning a confidence
vote when parliament returns in September
are very tight indeed.
So whether he can win that vote or not
is going to be very uncertain.
And if he loses that vote, then there's
not much time left before Britain will
head to a general election.
Britain has an unwritten constitution.
And there's lots of conventions that
say what the prime minister should do, not what he must do.
Normally, if Mr Johnson lost a confidence vote then
he would quit and make way for someone else.
But people close to the prime minister
say he won't do that at all.
He's not interested in what parliament or MPs think.
Instead, he's only focused on delivering Brexit
by October the 31st.
In his own words - come what may, do or die.
So if he does lose that confidence vote,
he won't be going anywhere.
If Mr Johnson loses that confidence vote in September,
there's a 14-day period which would allow another government
to step in its place.
If nothing happens in that time, then it's
back over to the prime minister to decide
when an election is held.
It must be called within 25 days.
But Boris Johnson doesn't want an election
to happen until the UK has left the EU,
knowing that his Conservative party would
be under threat from Nigel Farage's Brexit party.
So you could imagine Mr Johnson pushing the date back as far as
possible until after October the 31st, when the UK automatically
has left the EU.
If the general election is held after the UK has
left the EU without a deal, then it all
comes down to how disruptive a no-deal Brexit is.
Mr Johnson would be betting that the disruption could
be contained, and he would pitch an election as parliament
versus the people.
The people who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum,
and parliament, the MPs who are trying to stop him
from fulfilling that.
The Liberal Democrats, on the other hand,
would run on a strongly pro-Remain platform, even
offer to rejoin the EU to avoid the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
And the Labour party?
Well, they would try to fight on domestic issues
because Brexit is a very complicated matter for them
because they don't want to lose the portion
of their Leave voters in the north and their Remain voters
in the cities.
So if we have that election the pollsters
say it would be inconclusive.
Nobody really knows who will be able to form
a government after that poll.
When the UK triggered Article 50 back in March 2017
it started a countdown clock until the UK leaves the EU.
The only way to stop that clock is
to delay or revoke Article 50.
The former prime minister Theresa May
delayed Article 50 twice.
But Mr Johnson has no intention of doing that.
He also has no intention of invoking Article 50.
So in this instance, unless another prime minister
steps into his place, then the UK
will be leaving at the end of October, regardless of what
MPs want to do about that.