When Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan on 2 August
2022, the Chinese, or rather, the Chinese government went crazy.
The result is that Xi Jinping's government has ramped up the tension in the area so that
it is currently red hot.
And so, in addition to condemning the visit, China launched huge military exercises, surrounded
the island and deployed warplanes and a lot of ships.
The Chinese military even fired ballistic missiles off the coast of Taiwan and, for
the first time, four of them flew over the island itself.
Of course, such provocations are not exactly new.
For example, Chinese air force incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone
are now a daily occurrence.
Bombers, fighter jets, surveillance planes, helicopters....
Everything is constantly passing through, forcing the Taiwanese forces to be permanently
on alert.
C1("The Taiwan issue has ceased to be a sort of narrow, boutique issue, and it has become
a central theater – if not the central drama – in U.S.-China strategic competition."
Evan Medeiros, Asian affairs expert and member of the Obama Administration's National Security
Council)
C2("As the US and external forces, including Taiwan independence forces, make constant
provocations, the exercises will become more intense and frequent, broader in time and
scope."
Song Zhongping, military analyst and former Chinese army officer)
The fact is that, during the last few years, the Taiwan issue has been gaining more and
more prominence on the international agenda...
And particularly on the agenda of the Chinese government.
Here on VisualPolitik we have published a few videos on this topic: we have talked,
for example, about how Taiwan could defend itself, about what it could learn from Ukraine,
about the reasons behind the Chinese claim to the island and many other similar questions.
However, we have yet to answer a few absolutely key questions:
Why is there such a sudden interest in Taiwan?
Why did the Xi Jinping government lose so much steam after Pelosi's visit?
What will Beijing's next step be?
What risks does Taiwan really face in the near future?
Well, we are going to answer all these questions, but first let’s try to understand what the
five reasons are that explain why China seems increasingly obsessed with Taiwan.
And I can already tell you that on this list we have all kinds of ingredients: military,
political, economic and diplomatic.
Listen up!
T1(A MATTER MADE IN CHINA)
That Xi Jinping's government is raising the tone on Taiwan is by no means accidental.
As I have already mentioned, there are at least five reasons for this virulent reaction.
And do you know what?
The first two have a lot to do with Xi Jinping's own policy.
Firstly, at the end of 2022, the Chinese leader will defy the hitherto traditional term limits
of the Chinese Communist Party.
In this way he will ensure that he will remain at the helm of China for at least a third
term.
This is something that has not happened since Mao's time.
But, as you can probably guess, Xi Jinping does not want to give up power.
And of course, there is nothing better to legitimize his position than to promote a
tremendously nationalistic discourse and present himself as the leader who will return China
to its greatness.
In this case, the leader who finally put Hong Kong under the total control of Beijing, and
who will soon do the same with Taiwan.
But, wait a minute, because that's not the only goal of the Chinese government's escalating
nationalism.
The other reason has a lot to do with diverting attention from something we've already told
you about here on VisualPolitik.
The Chinese economy is not going through its best phase.
With the exception of the coronavirus period, its growth is the lowest in 30 years, youth
unemployment is growing steadily and the country is on the verge of a huge economic and perhaps
also financial crisis.
In other words, under Xi Jinping, Chinese prosperity is collapsing.
And with it, so is the tacit historic pact between the Communist Party and Chinese society:
[You know how it goes: you don't question the government or the Communist party and
in return the Beijing bigwigs guarantee you prosperity and a rapid improvement in living
standards].
But the question is, what does every good politician do when he fails in his fundamental
objective?
Exactly, he pulls another one out of the hat.
When the economy goes from bad to worse, it is not unusual for politicians to suddenly
come up with other demands.
In this case, of a much more nationalistic agenda, which includes the Taiwan issue.
For the Chinese government, suddenly growth and prosperity seem to have ceased to be a
priority.
What matters now is to restore the greatness of the mighty Chinese nation.
What Xi Jingping calls "the great national rejuvenation".
[Despite the fact that, well, China actually has an increasingly aging population]
In fact, the real estate bubble started to burst when Evergrande, one of the big Chinese
real estate developers, collapsed.
The collapse of this company started to become well known, at least publicly, from about
September 2021.
Well, look at what Xi Jinping said shortly after.
N1(11 October 2021: Xi Jinping says reunification is imperative for China's rejuvenation.
Europa Press)
As you can see, it is a matter of purely political interest.
Of course, in addition to these examples, we can also find military, economic and diplomatic
motives.
For example, the third reason why Taiwan suddenly arouses so much interest in Beijing has a
lot to do with the modernization of Taiwan's armed forces.
You see, let me explain.
Over the last few years the Chinese military has modernized and grown in capabilities.
So now its goal is to extend its influence throughout the region.
Well, in this line of thinking, Taiwan is something like a key for accessing both the
South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean itself.
Two necessary objectives for the operability of the Chinese navy.
In fact, as you can see, the island of Formosa is the main link in a chain of islands which,
if necessary, could block the Chinese navy.
And that's not all, if Taiwan were under Chinese rule, in addition to having an easier time
extending its influence in the region, it would gain enormous control over one of the
most important trade routes on the planet.The Taiwan Strait is one of the busiest shipping
lanes in the world, with almost half of all container ships, including 88% of the largest
class, passing through.
We are talking about the main route for ships carrying goods to the west from China, Japan
and South Korea and also the main route through which these same countries are supplied with
energy.
In other words, China's adversaries such as South Korea or Japan would depend on Beijing
to complete a large part of their exports and to supply themselves with gas and oil.
What's more, Taiwan could currently be used by the United States as a kind of aircraft
carrier and supply center.
If Taiwan were to return to Beijing's control, this risk would disappear completely.
So seen in this light, the Chinese pressure seems a logical consequence of the Asian giant's
growing military presence.
But, VisualPolitik viewers, we are not finished yet.
As I was saying, we can also find two other clear motives: one economic and the other
diplomatic.
Pay close attention.
T2(ONE CHIP-BLOCKING AND ONE PRESSURE MEASURE)
The People's Republic of China has been preparing its armed forces to invade Taiwan for years.
For example, it has built the largest navy in the world by number of ships.
As you will see, this may be much more important than we might think at first glance.
Not only that, the so-called People's Liberation Army of mainland China is also greatly increasing
its presence around Taiwan.
However, the first step in a hypothetical conflict could be very different.
In several previous videos here on VisualPolitik, we have outlined how Taiwan could prepare
for any invasion to come at an excessively high cost to Beijing.
And the Russian experience in Ukraine is, to put it bluntly, quite a wake-up call.
Therefore, the communist regime could try a different strategy: blockade the island
of Formosa and its 23 million inhabitants by sea and air.
That is, to isolate Taiwan in order to take control of the situation and obtain concessions
from Taipei.
This strategy, by the way, is by no means coincidental.
Look at this map, most of Taiwan's population, industry and ports are concentrated precisely
on the western flank of the island, that is just off the coast of mainland China.
In this way, by using dozens and dozens, perhaps hundreds of warships and submarines, Beijing
could prevent merchant ships from entering or leaving the island, thereby also sealing
off one of the world's busiest trade routes and an indispensable route for the Taiwanese
economy.
In the same way, the enormous numerical superiority of the Chinese air force in conjunction with
their new aircraft carriers could also allow them to close the airspace tightly.
And something very similar could also be done to a large extent with cyberspace.
How?
By cutting or deactivating the submarine cables that carry around 90% of the data connecting
this island with the rest of the world.
The fact is that such a blockade could quickly force a negotiation or dissuade Taipei from
making decisions that Beijing does not like.
Likewise, since it is not strictly a war action, or at least a direct attack on the island,
this could make the United States and other allies opt for the diplomatic route in response.
In addition, Taiwan is highly dependent on fuel and food imports as well as on the exports
that form the core of its economy.
So it is possible that the island could not withstand such a blockade for long, at least
not without suffering great losses.
And that's not all.
VisualPolitik community, put on the brakes because right here we have to stop for a moment.
Do you remember what great success the Taiwanese industry has had in recent years?
3, 2,1.....
Exactly!
Taiwan has become a microchip Mecca.
Chips are small integrated circuits that have become the indispensable components of technological
evolution.
From nanotechnology to robotics, from the F-35 fighter jet to drones and the smartphones
we all carry in our pockets.
All modern gadgets need these small devices.
In a way, the technological race, including, it has to be said, the military field, has
become a race to get hold of the best chips.
Well, guess what?
Taiwan has become the world's epicenter of advanced chip manufacturing.
This means that today Taiwan is a key location for the US technology industry and the US
military industry.
However, a Chinese blockade could disrupt the supply chains...
Which, as you can see, would directly affect the national security of the North American
power.
In fact, during her visit Nancy Pelosi met with the top brass of TSMC, the world's largest
chipmaker, while Massachusetts Senator, Edward Markey, met with company officials to discuss
investments and ways to improve chip supply chains.
That was one of the key points of the visit.
And not only that, the Tsai Ing-Wen government itself – recipient, by the way, of the VisualPolitik
award – considers this international dependence on chips to be the best guarantee for Taiwan's
survival today.
The problem is that Chinese industry also needs chips.
In fact, the Asian giant imports more chips than oil.
In 2021 alone it imported $430 billion worth of chips.
Thirty-six percent came from Taiwan.
And so the race for Taiwan has also become a race for the most advanced chips.
C3("Whoever dominates the world chip market will have technological and military supremacy.
For the two great superpowers it is a matter of survival as superpowers.
Josep Piqué, Director of the magazine "Política Exterior")
So you see, in this dangerous game, a possible Chinese blockade of the Formosan island is
a real risk.
Not only as a pressure measure against Taiwan, but also, if necessary, against Washington.
So here we have two other good reasons for so much sudden interest in Taiwan.
On the one hand, the occupation of Taiwan would allow China to take over one of the
world's most important industries and technologies.
On the other hand, the occupation or even the threat to blockade the island could give
it an enormous diplomatic advantage.
It would be, if necessary, an element of brutal pressure against the United States, Europe
and the rest of the world.
China could cut off or at least threaten to cut off the chip supply chain.
And that, that's serious talk.But we're not done yet.
The question now is:
Which scenario are we actually facing?
Will we really see an invasion attempt in the short term?
How could Taiwan protect itself?
Well...
Listen up!
T3 (ARMOR AGAINST THE PERSISTENCE OF BEIJING)
With all that we have seen, we can expect that Chinese threats will not stop.
And this brings several issues to the fore.
The first is, what can Taiwan do to dissuade China from moving from rhetoric to action?
This is something we have already talked about.
The first thing Taiwan has to do is to make any potential invasion a huge headache.
This is what is known as the porcupine strategy.
If the Ukrainian war has shown us anything, it is precisely that asymmetric warfare using
portable systems such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
can be, if deployed in large numbers, tremendously efficient against much better equipped invading
forces.
That is why more and more experts in the military field are saying that this is precisely what
Taiwan needs to do, to prepare thoroughly for large-scale asymmetric warfare: missiles,
drones, helicopters, firing platforms, anti-aircraft systems, precision artillery, mines, torpedoes.....
In general, relatively inexpensive equipment would be much more effective than expensive
submarines or tanks.
They would also have to be prepared to train a large part of their population.
This could be achieved by promoting shooting clubs or by forming a kind of territorial
guard.
Of course, this eliminates neither the risk of a blockade nor the economic damage that
the growing hostility with China could cause.
In this fashion, strengthening the partnership with its international allies, both economically
and militarily, becomes an essential step.
Precisely for this reason, Taiwan has asked to join the CPTPP and is negotiating a free
trade agreement with the United States.
Taiwan has to become, from any point of view, the best ally of the United States, Europe,
Japan and the rest of the allied countries.
Be that as it may, perhaps the best news is that, for now, the Ukraine war may have, at
least for a while, put the brakes on Xi Jinping's enormous ambition.
Ukraine has shown that things may end up being very different than they were with Crimea
and Hong Kong, when the international community barely reacted.
And that, that is extraordinarily good news for Taiwan.
All in all, it seems unlikely that China's objective is to attempt an invasion in the
near future.
Beijing's objective is probably somewhat more elaborate and much more similar to what it
did with Hong Kong: that is, to increase its economic influence over the island while increasing
and preparing its military force in order to threaten a blockade and seek concessions
for a progressive integration process.
That would be something like the perfect trap, and that is why Xi Jinping and his government
are so irritated that Taiwan is re-engaging with the West.
In fact, China's increasing rhetoric may also seek to raise Taiwan's country risk to punish
its economy and its ties with the West.
So taking all this into account the most likely scenario is that the Chinese rhetoric will
get more and not less intense as time goes on....
But having reached this point, it's your turn:
What do you think China will eventually do with Taiwan?
Will it increase its threats or will it instead seek to lower the tension in order to move
closer to the island?
Will the Communist Party Congress be the turning point for things to change?
And surely the most important question of all: What should the international community
do?
Leave us your impressions below and let's open a debate.
As always, if you found this video interesting, don't forget to like and subscribe to VisualPolitik
if you haven't already done so.
Thank you very much for watching.
All the best and see you next time.