Again with some breaking news on Ukraine.
Russia says
it will
suspend its participation
in the grain export deal
that it made and had gotten underway
with Ukraine.
CNN's Nic Robertson is in Kiev.
So, Nic, what's the significance of this
very significant.
Russia says it's withdrawing
from this deal
for an indefinite period and agreed
the deal brokered by the U.N.
sort of in parallel with a similar deal
with Ukraine back at the end of July.
Back then,
it was anticipated that this would allow
all the grain
that was backing up in Ukrainian ports
to get to all those hardheads.
Third world
countries in desperate
need of food supplies
anticipated that maybe 20 million
tonnes of grain could be shifted.
In recent weeks,
Ukrainian officials
have been saying that the Russians
have been dragging their feet.
The Russians have been saying that
they're not sure
that they would actually continue
with this grain deal.
So far
some 405 ships have been involved
in the deal, moving 9.1 million tons,
which is less than half of
what was originally anticipated.
But what precipitated
this showdown by Russia today?
In Sebastopol
and Crimea, occupied by Russia?
There were explosions
in the port area there today.
Russia is saying
those explosions
reports some of it ships and is blaming
Ukraine for what
it calls a terrorist attack
and saying that
the attack
was actually led by British specialists.
Now, Ukraine is saying that
this is another fiction
that's been created by Russia
much along the lines
of the previous factions.
It says it's created.
I think there are a couple of things
to think about here when we step back
and look at this grain deal.
It was only ever for three months
and the anticipation was about
now it would be extended.
Russia that created this situation
of the global grain shortage
because it started the war
actually got a break on sanctions
to allow this deal to happen
in the first place.
Russia's been complaining recently
that the grain that's been coming out
has been going into the first world
and not the third world,
but they actually created the scenario
where there was this global shortage
by starting the war.
So this puts the U.N.,
if you will, in a difficult position.
The U.N.
is asking Russia not to act in haste.
But it does seem
now that that deal is off.
And there are apparently about 175 ships
under contractual obligation
waiting to come in and take out grain
that is still in the ports.
This is now a big
an ongoing problem and a setback
to the UN's efforts to sort of brokering
some kind of lines of peace here,
a giant setback.
Nic Robertson in Kiev, thank you so much.
Keep us posted.
Let's talk
more about this
and the overall strategy of the Russians.
Let's bring in Colonel Cedric Leighton.
He's a retired
Air Force colonel
and a CNN military analyst.
All right. So, so good to see you.
So so this deal to unleash grain
that was blocked
and backed up on Ukrainian ports.
Russia went into this deal saying,
you know, we're going to allow this
to happen.
The export of this grain now suspended.
Do you think Russia ever really
had the intention
of fully being committed to this deal?
Fredericka, frankly, I
think they never had the intention
to be fully committed to this deal.
You know,
when you look at the way
in which the Russians have actually
used their military
to go after civilian targets,
the fact that they're going
after the energy infrastructure,
the power grid
and other elements of the energy
infrastructure in Ukraine
and even from the beginning of this war,
the fact that they have gone after
the Ukrainian food
supply system and the fact that Ukraine,
a major exporter of grains,
was extremely vulnerable on this point.
The Russians know that vulnerability
and they're going to push
every single button
that they can
in order to achieve their goals.
And in this case, they knew that
if they cut off grain supplies
to the rest of the world,
then that will cause severe shortages.
And of course, that's a major
Ukrainian vulnerability in this effort.
So what will be the role of the U.N.
at this juncture?
So the U.N.
is going to try to,
I think, get this green deal
started again.
They've got a real uphill battle
in this case, Fredericka.
And I think what
the they, of course,
had the good officers of Turkey
at the beginning of this, working
through all of these deals
with the Turkish president,
the Turkish foreign minister,
So I think the Turks
will probably be engaged once again
trying to salvage the deal.
It's critical, of course,
you know, for the third world,
because a lot of countries in Africa
get supplied by Ukrainian grain.
So it's the key element here
that could be used to prevent famine.
But if it fails,
we're going to see some food shortages
in all of these areas,
major food shortages.
And then you just talked about
Russia targeting the power grid.
It seems unrelenting.
And, you know, talk to us about the
what appears to be the growing strategy
of Russia.
To further cripple not just Ukraine,
but the region
Yeah, this is really an
interesting development.
And frankly,
you know, in normal circumstances
like this,
you would have expected the Russians
to target the energy grid,
the Ukrainian energy grid
from the beginning of this war.
They haven't done so until now.
I think it shows the
you know, the fact that they brought
in the new general who understands a bit
more about targeting
these kinds of things,
it appears, than his predecessors
that may have made a difference.
And the other thing to keep in mind,
Fredricka, is that
Ukraine is a net exporter,
or at least was a net
exporter of electricity
to the European grid.
And that very fact,
you create problems for countries
like Poland, Romania, other countries
that are hooked into that grid
and get power from Ukraine.
So this is a big deal.
And it's designed
to pressure the Europeans
to force the Ukrainians
to come to the negotiating table
at this point. So
it seems as
though the only one that has leverage,
the only country that has leverage
here is Russia.
But as you just mentioned, the other
the dependency of other countries
like Poland on that power grid,
how might they come to the table or will
they come to the table
in any way to try to negotiate directly
with Russia?
Well, there are going to be people
in various countries,
especially in countries like Germany,
which is dependent
on another aspect of Russian energy,
which is the gas price,
the natural gas supply that they have
from Russia,
at least before
had it received from Russia.
So there's going to be pressure
from various elements
within these countries.
Germany, a little bit like
France as well.
You know, some other countries, Italy,
those countries are going to be looking
to try
to resolve any type of energy shortages
that they might be experiencing
this winter.
If they can assure gas supplies,
it won't be as difficult the situation as
has been predicted by some.
But if those gas supplies fail or
if there is an uptick in demand
because the more severe winter
that's going to create
some real problems,
then that pressure is going to
definitely be felt
not only in places like Berlin,
but also in Kiev.
And that could have a significant impact
on the Ukrainian war effort. Hmm.
Is this winter
make or break for Ukraine and its allies
Yes, it is.
And, you
know, I
hate to be that stark in my assessment,
Fredericka, but
this is a critical component to
and it is very important for the West
to sustain its support of Ukraine
no matter what the energy shortages are.
We have to find ways
around those energy shortages.
And they might have to be creative.
In fact,
But those energy shortages
are going to play a significant role
in popular opinion and popular
support for this war effort,
which up to this point
has been very strong
and really throughout Western Europe
and the U.S.,
but obviously in Ukraine as well.
All right.
Incredibly consequential.
Colonel Cedric Leighton, good to see you.
Always appreciate your expertize.
Thank you.