OK to you 11 Meteorologist Kim Castro.
We've got a close eye on the tropics,
specifically the Gulf for an area that
is likely to become a Dalia by next week.
It is Saturday, August 26th and
here is your tropical update,
the National Hurricane Center,
now upping this area of convective storms to
a 90% chance for development over the next
seven days of the next two a 70% chance.
And we are seeing some significt
developments from yesterday.
So yesterday we saw a lot of building
and collapsing building and collapsing,
building and collapsing signaling that this
storm really didn't have its act together.
It was really trying to moistenp
the atmosphere and this morning
it's doing a better job of that.
We're seeing a concentrated area
of those bright whites,
so some better building before
just collapsing.
This Invest Tropical Wave 93 L s
going to take a while to brew in
this region before it moves on.
Right now 25 mile an hour winds,
it is moving north of 10 miles an hour,
but really over the last frames
it looks to be pretty static,
pretty stagnant.
So they might be dropping the
forward momentum and progression
of this area of convective stor.
Visible satellite showing us a couple
of different features as well.
So we're seeing some overshooting cloud tops,
again indicative of some good
vertical development.
We're also starting to see
some outer convective bands,
they're starting to form,
but we'll we'll have a couple of
factors that inhibit its develot
in the short term.
In the long term,
it's looking pretty promising tt
it could start to ramp up some
of its fuel capabilities.
So right now a couple of differt
areas to watch for an upper
level low directly to its West,
this potentially is going to nue
it a little bit closer towards .
So some land interaction which
could again inhibit its progresn
in the short term, but not a lo,
not a lot of disruption there.
And then you'll notice this area
that's pretty convective free.
It's clear usually you'd see
some cloud cover in this area,
at least some moisture signs.
But no,
this is an area of high pressure there.
So some drier air getting entrad
to the storm in the short term.
So that could potentially at let
halter its momentum briefly.
It'll give it more time though,
as it moves on to get a little
better intensity,
So we'll look at what factors it
has working for it.
It definitely has a lot of heat.
Notice the heat content.
Sea surface temperatures does
maroon color signal.
Not only are we at the threshol,
we are well above it backed once
it crosses the Caribbean and hes
to the eastern Gulf.
Look at these water temperature.
We're talking 868788 degrees.
Ample fuel for this to pick up
once it's able to pass through
that Yucatan channel.
Let me tell you,
not only does it have the
warm sea surface temperatures,
it's got another ingredient
working in its favor.
It is not going to have
a sheared environment,
so very favorable conditions.
Notice these areas that
I'm highlighting here,
these signal winds that are rapid aloft,
so in the upper levels,
wind working in opposition withe
storm motion and storm formation
which would allow for the storm
to become ripped apart or shear.
You'll notice that's in its periphery,
not in its Direct Line of trave.
So forecast is for this to move
north and in this area really ds
not have disruption from the wi.
So that would pretty much allowt
to build to his heart's desire.
GFS model showing they're lingeg
for quite some time.
So that's a snapshot very earlyw
Monday morning, 3:30 in the mor,
still churning,
trying to pass through the
ship channel there, Cancun.
So potentially the Yucatan,
Cuba seeing impacts through the weekend,
definitely some some heavier
rainfall potential there.
And then once it passes,
once it lifts N to the Gulf,
that's when we start to
see the tightening here.
So the isobars,
the pressure lines really starting to
signal that we're seeing not onn
organized area of low pressure a
very intensifying scenario potentially
starting to come into fruition.
Now these are all model
assumptions right now.
We're not going to have a good
understanding as to what's realy
going to materialize until we
see the system actually develop.
Right now it's just an area of interest
Invest 93 L and once it actually
gets some characteristics of organization,
we'll have a better understandig
and a better trajectory for whas
actually going to happen here.
But this is the American model
which last week was not showing
much of anything other than just
an open wave of disturbed weath.
Now it is on board and starting
to have better agreement with te
European as far as not only organization
of a potentially intensity and e
potential area of impact as wel.
So I'll take you forward through time
here for the American model GFS there
7:00 PM on Tuesday continuing to
lift northward and really wantio
make its push towards the penin.
So anywhere from Pensacola to Tallahassee,
that's what the GFS has pinged s
an area to pay special attentio.
Now let's take it over towards the European.
So same deal there as far as
the stalling potential.
So like I mentioned a couple different
factors going to slow down and hinder,
disrupt the development in the short term.
In the long term,
things are looking good and thas
why both models have pretty explosive
development in the long term but short term.
So through the weekend,
very early Monday,
still making it through the Yuc,
they're not out of the Caribbean
now as we go into the Tuesday
early morning time frame,
now we've cleared this area her.
Now we've cleared Cuba,
still seeing some heavy downpour
impacts there and the tightening
of the Isobars and taking into
effect for a Tuesday 5:00 AM
will continue through time.
And this takes more of a
northeasterly approach.
So the Europeans thinking for te
present time, again not having
many pieces of the pie to work h
yet many pieces of the puzzle.
Tallahassee to Tampa is what it's thinking.
So further east and a little bit further
South along the West Coast of Florida,
that's what it has as an area
to pay special attention to.
But notice regardless,
both are showing pretty good consensus
and confidence that this could
definitely ramp up quickly and we know why.
It's got everything working in its favor.
So it's got the amplified fuel
source and it's got unsheared on
playground to basically just take off.
So that's early on Wednesday.
Timing and location is going to
change model run after model ru,
especially once we start to see
the actual formation of the sys.
Let me show you spaghetti plots
as well because there's been a
little variability with this ovr
the last couple runs.
So they were initially showing
mostly the peninsula there,
excuse me, the Panhandle.
Now the latest morning runs
we're showing a little further
towards the West and the latest
development is a little bit tig.
Notice there's a couple of rogue plots,
couple different perturbations,
a couple of variabilities with each model
run to take into account different elements.
But for the most part,
it's got a pretty good consensus that this is
going to be potentially a Panhandle landfall.
Now a couple of them wanting
to hint at Mobile AL,
it's still very, very early on,
I can't stress that enough.
These are just assumptions and
guesses without having the full
picture and without having very
key ingredients to consider.
But for the time being,
it's not early enough.
In fact,
the time is now to prepare and e
are the areas that we have to watch for.
So anywhere between Pensacola to Miami,
I would say even stretching
into Eastern Louisiana.
A couple different factors
could skew the motion,
but for the most part,
the Western Gulf is going to be
protected by this front right h.
So it's really going to be Eastn
Gulf that we've got our sights
set on for the progress of this
area of convective weather,
which is expected to become a depression
shortly and expected to become a Dalia
as we head into the coming week.
Slower development for the weekend, but
things could ramp up very quickly thereafter.
So wouldn't be surprised.
We're already starting to see
some good development,
some healthier convection
on imagery this morning.
So definitely keep a close eye.
We're going to have these
tropical updates twice a day,
at least once we start developm.
Seeing that come to fruition,
we'll keep you updated even more frequently.
But of course throughout the
day we are on social media,
Twitter, Instagram and Facebook.
These are my handles,
Kim Castro Weather, Kim Castro, KHOU.
So just reach out there.
Are there any questions or any
concerns for the time being?
But definitely I'll I'll keep a
close eye on this and I think te
questions and concerns might bee
a little bit more focused once e
see that storm get a little bit
better organized and become an
actual system for the time bein,
wishing you a good and healthy weekend.