If you believe that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going to be the only one of the decade,
you may be right... But... in order to make such a forecast
with confidence would require us to know for sure how China is going to behave.
You already know that this country has been threatening to invade Taiwan for
some time now. And, I’m sure many of you would think that sooner or later
the island will likely become the next Ukraine, but... What if we told you that
there are those who think that ultimately the Asian Ukraine could be Vietnam and not Taiwan?
And, keep in mind, we are not talking about mere speculation.
There are plenty of arguments to believe that the risk exists.
Tension rises between China, Vietnam and the Philippines over disputed islands
In fact, China has even sunk Vietnamese fishing boats in the South China Sea. But,
let's be honest, this is nothing new for Vietnam, after all, the two countries were already at war
in 1979, just after the end of the famous civil war in which the United States intervened.
[But, wait a minute, aren't they both supposed
to be countries with communist regimes? Didn't international socialism unite them?)
Yes, both were – and supposedly still are – staunch communist regimes, but,
when it comes to power struggles... ideology takes a back seat.
The fact is that it should come as no surprise that Vietnam is trying to strengthen itself as
much as possible to avoid another possible Chinese invasion. And what can I say,
history tells us that this is the smartest move it can make. And, not surprisingly,
this is something that, as we will see, is of great interest to the United States.
Think about it, the United States wants to curb Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea,
an objective shared by Vietnam, a country that could play a crucial role in that project.
With almost 100 million inhabitants and impressive economic growth in recent years – Vietnam is
gradually emerging as another future regional counterweight to China. One more. You know,
alongside Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, possibly India and so many other
countries in the area. China's position is not as strong as it might appear at first glance.
However, we must not forget that Vietnam is still a communist dictatorship,
and making alliances with authoritarian regimes can lead to a lot of problems.
Just look at the NATO situation with Turkey... But we'll talk about that in another video.
For now, the question is: can the West really trust Vietnam? To what
extent could it become a reliable military partner for the United
States? Could tensions between Vietnam and China end up provoking another war?
Today we are going to answer these questions, but first let's look at a bit of history.
(THE CROSSROADS OF ASIAN COMMUNISM)
When we look at history and how China and Vietnam are organized internally,
we see that, at first glance, they basically appear to be parallel realities:
Both countries carried out socialist revolutions,
both established communist dictatorships that are still in place, and both began
to reform their economies in order to open up to the international market.
Vietnam started its economic reform in 1986 with Doi Moi,
that is 8 years after Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms were launched in China.
The fact is that both countries began to promote private ownership of agricultural property and,
in general, in the rest of the economy. They also boosted foreign investment and
intensified their trade relations with the world.
Thanks to these changes, they eventually reaped a juicy result:
as you can see, their economies began to take off.
As you can see, China, which began its reforms almost a decade earlier,
distanced itself from Vietnam, especially when it joined the World Trade Organization at the
beginning of the 21st century. Nevertheless, overall, the two countries have followed a
more than remarkable trajectory. In just 30 years, Vietnam has multiplied the real value
of its production by 12 times, while China has increased its own by almost 20 times.
And the truth is that we are talking about two countries with many similarities... But that,
at the same time, are also very different.
In the case of Vietnam, in addition to arriving almost a decade late to the wave of economic
reforms, it must be taken into account that when it did finally arrive, this country had
just gone through two wars: a civil war in which the United States participated and,
later, a war against China, which showed up in defense of the Cambodian regime that
committed one of the most extensive acts of genocide in history, Pol Pot.
In general, we can say that Vietnam embraced reforms when it was poorer and had even more
problems of all kinds than China. In part, that difference explains the current gap.
Of course, today, the differences go beyond the purely economic realm.
(China, between collective power
and the personalism of Xi Jinping. – ABC) Exactly, while in recent years personalism
taken to the extreme has regained strength with Xi Jinping in China,
in Vietnam things look different, and proof of this is news stories like this:
(Vietnam President Nguyen Xuan Phuc quits amid Communist Party corruption crackdown. – CNN)
You see, in China, since 1989, the general secretary of the Communist Party has also
been the president of the country. In Vietnam, on the other hand, this seems unthinkable today.
In fact, the Vietnamese communist dictatorship rests on four pillars:
the General Secretariat, the Prime Minister, the President and the Leader of the National
Assembly. Since Ho Chi Minh's death in 1969, each of these positions has been
held by different people who function, in a way, as counterweights to each other.
In fact, the National Assembly of Vietnam, which is obviously not democratic,
at least has some real activity. It can even veto resolutions and, if necessary,
propose motions of confidence against the prime minister. So far this has allowed the
official apparatus to be somewhat more oxygenated. Meanwhile, in China there was the alternation of
the leader and the political elites... But with Xi Jinping, all that has disappeared.
So what does all this mean? Basically, no one in Vietnam can change course rapidly,
as Xi Jinping can in China. And it also generally means fewer restrictions for the population.
For example, while in China Facebook and YouTube are totally blocked, in Vietnam there is free
access, albeit with some restrictions, even to videos that criticize the Communist Party.
But apart from the domestic political project, the area where we find the biggest differences
between the two countries is mainly in their policy in the South China Sea, although, well,
they also have one important thing in common there: both countries claim the same territories.
And that means that tensions could flare up and history could repeat itself again.
Don't forget that both countries were at war as recently as 1979.
The question is: How does Vietnam hope to
prevent tension from flaring up with its northern neighbor?
Well, let's take a look. (FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE)
It is inevitable, every time we hear about Vietnam, we immediately think of that war
about which dozens of movies have been made and in which the United States was
involved in supporting the south of the country with tens and tens of thousands
of soldiers. To give you an idea, in 1968 the North American power had almost 600,000
soldiers deployed in this country. In total, the United States participated
in this war for 12 very long years. But I'm sure what many of you didn't
know is that right after this war ended, China invaded Vietnam in 1979.
And apparently today things would not be much different:
Vietnam's exposure to China remains enormous.
Look at this map: If you pay attention, geographically Vietnam is totally at the
mercy of China, either by its border in the north – which was where the Chinese
invaded them in '79 – or by the coast where, in addition to being practically surrounded,
they would face the largest navy by number of ships in the whole world.
And let's not forget that to the southwest there is Cambodia, an ally of China,
and then there is Laos, which could change sides at the convenience of the highest bidder.
Not surprisingly, faced with such a scenario,
the question is, can Vietnam really have a clearly independent discourse?
This is basically the reason why Vietnam has been moving closer and closer to
countries such as Japan and India in recent years, both militarily and commercially,
But, let's be honest, the friendship between these countries is rather superficial. If
we really want to identify the one who has always been Vietnam's best friend,
we have to go to the country that has been in all the headlines around the world this past year.
Exactly, we are talking about Russia.
Since the Ho Chi Minh era, Moscow's influence in the country has already been infinitely
greater than that of Beijing. In a way, this has much to do with the fact that
the roots of Vietnam's communist thinking come directly from Soviet Marxism-Leninism.
It is not surprising, therefore, that its ties with the Soviet Union were so close. Which
explains, to a large extent, why the United States took the Vietnam War so seriously. A
conflict in which North Vietnamese troops were supported and assisted by the Soviet Union.
Which is exactly what happened again when China invaded the country in 1979 in retaliation for
Vietnam attacking and overthrowing the bloody Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia.
Whether the invasion was coming from the Americans or the Chinese, the Soviet Union,
the most loyal partner of communist Vietnam, helped the country by sending a lot of weapons
such as anti-aircraft missiles, light machine guns and the infamous AK-47 assault rifle.
The point is that if their relations were already close,
from that era on the friendship grew much stronger. In fact, today Russia remains the
largest arms partner of the Vietnamese army. Russia even has preferential access to one
of the most important Vietnamese bases, the one in Cam Ranh Bay.
But pay attention, because that's not the end of it.
Vietnam did not rely on the Soviet Union and today's Russia just to get
weapons. Economic cooperation has also been key during this time.
Do you want an example? Well,
in recent years Vietnam has tried to extract oil in the South China Sea,
with the help of a lot of multinationals. For example, with the Spanish company, Repsol.
However, we are talking about extraction from disputed territories, and, naturally, the oil was
going to come out faster and with fewer problems if some Russian state-owned company got involved
and managed to intimidate China a little bit, just a little bit. [Particularly for fear of damaging
its relations with Moscow. Or rather, Xi Jinping's determination to maintain those relations].
And, of course, the first to jump on this opportunity was Rosneft, although it later
sold its entire stake to Zarubezhneft, another Russian state-owned energy company.
So let me ask you a question, how do you think Vietnam repays Russia's favors? Well,
news stories like this are a pretty good indication:
(Vietnam and Thailand abstain from UN vote to condemn Russia's Ukraine annexation. RFA)
Exactly. Vietnam is one of the few countries in
the world that avoids condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And, it makes sense, if it weren't for the constant support of the Soviet Union in the
past and the current Russia today, Vietnam would possibly not be what it is today.
But of course, if China were to take the initiative and punish or change the Vietnamese
government, or even invade the country and turn it into a satellite State, the Russians would
be of no help. Today, given the new capabilities of the Chinese army and the manifest weaknesses
of Russia, it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for Moscow to be of any help to them.
And make no mistake about it. This is crystal clear to the decision makers in Hanoi:
they have one of the world's major powers on their doorstep, a power that is increasingly
expansionist and with which they do not get along particularly well. And,
in any case, they do not want to be a satellite country.
To avoid a possible clash, in recent years, Hanoi has been trying to improve its relations
with Beijing. This is not just a territorial or military issue. To put it in perspective,
almost 40% of all Vietnamese imports come from China, including integrated circuits, telephones,
semiconductors... In short, practically everything the country needs to develop technologically.
This explains, for example, why both countries have carried out dozens of
military cooperation exercises during the current century.
And above all, it explains the foreign policy based on the philosophy of the 3 noes:
Not to allow foreign military bases in Vietnam, not to be part of military alliances, and not
to support one country in its fight against another. All this in order not to anger China.
But what if this strategy was a mistake? Nevertheless,
tensions in the South China Sea with China have been rising over the past
decade and the situation in the region is no longer to be taken lightly. Watch this
space:(LEAVING THE PAST BEHIND)
We've told you before how Vietnam embarked on a series of pro-market economic reforms
starting in '86. It's something we talked about in detail in a past video here on VisualPolitik.
But for those of you who haven't seen it or simply don't remember it:
At the beginning, these reforms were limited to the agricultural sector,
and later jumped to the rest of the economic sectors. One of the most important was the
pursuit of the country's industrialization at all costs. In order to succeed,
this required receiving and courting investors from the rest of the world.
And, trust me, they took it very seriously. Nowadays it is not uncommon to see brands
from all over the world producing in Vietnam. We are talking about companies like Samsung, H&M,
Adidas, Nike and Foxconn. In fact, Vietnam's largest customer by far is the United States.
This is not surprising. Relations with
the North American superpower have improved greatly in recent years.
Gone are the times of war and mistrust. In 1995 the two countries formally restored diplomatic
relations, in 2000 they signed a Bilateral Trade Agreement, in 2007 Vietnam joined the World Trade
Organization with Washington's explicit support, and in 2016 the United States completely lifted
the arms embargo on Vietnam, allowing for greater cooperation on security and defense issues.
We could even see images like these:
Since then, the two countries have conducted numerous joint military exercises and routinely
collaborate on maritime security and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region.
Now, while we have told you that Vietnam has tried to get along
as well as possible with China, what explains its sudden desire to create
a link with its historical archenemy and China's current great adversary?
Well, beyond economic issues, the truth is that in Hanoi they do not trust Beijing at all. In fact,
in 2014, tension between the two countries reached an extreme level when China brought
a semi-submersible oil platform to explore and exploit oil within Vietnamese maritime territory.
And not only that, the construction of artificial islands around the Spratly and
Paracel archipelagos, which Vietnam claims as its own, has caused tension to grow in the region,
especially because of the military hardware that China is installing on these islands.
That is why in Hanoi they now seem to understand that neither Moscow
nor Beijing are their safest bets, but that instead they need to look
to the United States and its orbit of allied countries in the area.
Of course, Washington has seen this shift as a stroke of good fortune: as another
potential partner to add to its already long list of countries angry or suspicious of China.
And in a way that's what explains news items like these:
(29 March 2018: The United States Transfers Six Metal Shark Patrol Boats to Vietnam. US Embassy in
Vietnam)(20 November 2019: US gifts ship to Vietnam to boost patrols in
disputed South China Sea. – SCMP) (17 December 2022: Analysis:
Vietnam shifts gears on arms trade as it loosens ties with Russia. – Reuters)
Now, instead of buying Russian weapons,
it is American, South Korean and Israeli weapons that are flooding into Vietnam.
Now, does this mean that Vietnam is going to change its "3 noes"
philosophy and throw itself completely into the arms of Uncle Sam? Well, definitely not.
Vietnam is a strange case of a country that right now
seems to want to get along with Beijing, Moscow and Washington at the same time.
And make no mistake: Vietnam is still a communist dictatorship. Western political and democratic
values are not part of the Communist Party, and this limits the confidence that the United
States places in Vietnam. Not surprisingly, it is practically impossible to imagine Vietnam
intervening alongside the United States in Taiwan to prevent an attack by China.
But now the question is for you, if you were Vietnam, who would you side with:
Moscow, Beijing or Washington? Leave us your answers in the comments and
let's open a debate. If you found this video interesting,
don't forget to like and subscribe to VisualPolitik if you haven't already done so.
Thank you very much for watching,
All the best and see you next time.