Dangerous storms lined up in the Pacific
getting ready to hit Northern California.
The biggest one hitting tonight into
early tomorrow for our Tuesday.
You can see the band of rain right
now pressing into the coast.
Now this is going to continue
to feed us with moisture.
It's a warm storm with a big tap of
moisture all the way out in the Pacific.
High snow levels initially
that will come down the hill,
but unfortunately rain on top of
snow is going to give us big impacts
moving into tonight and tomorrow.
Now you can see out in the Pacific.
Multiple storms lined up here and
we're going to be tracking each
one of them with the storm lineup.
You can see Tuesday morning is
gonna be the biggest impact day
that we see with heavy rain,
dangerous winds and also rain on top of snow
again will lead to some localized flooding.
Tuesday evening that snow
level starts to go down.
We'll see the rain start to taper off
with some isolated thunderstorms possible.
It's not going to be very widespread though.
Wednesday evening into Friday morning,
lighter showers,
lowering snow level,
and then we'll get that third storm.
In the series Friday night through
Saturday with moderate to heavy
rain and rising snow level again,
so this is going to be a
fluctuating system here.
As we head into those advisories,
watches and warnings,
you can see it's all lit up
throughout Northern California.
Breaking it down and packing
each one of these.
We've got our winter storm warning in
effect Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning with six to 40 inches of snow,
wind gusts up to 100 mph,
blowing snow and hazardous driving
conditions during that time frame.
Again, I mentioned the rain on top of snow.
That's going to cause
some avalanche concerns.
That'll be until Wednesday morning,
mainly because of Gale force winds,
rain followed by snow,
as well as high snow totals.
Possible widespread avalanche
activity through the Tahoe Basin,
extending all the way South
into the Yosemite area.
Next we'll focus on winds,
high wind warning in effect for the
parts of the Sacramento Valley,
the foothills and the Sierra,
with gusts up to 85 mph.
Again, those Sierra Ridge.
Oops.
We'll see those gusts up to 100 mph,
but downed trees and power lines,
likely causing widespread power outages
and very difficult travel as well.
Winds are going to be slightly
lighter for the southern part of
the Sacramento Valley through the
northern San Joaquin Valley and Delta,
with gusts up to 50 mph needing
to secure those outdoor objects.
If you still have some holiday
decorations out there,
a few power outages,
and also low visibility with the
rain coming in,
it'll really be.
Blowing that around so that rain is
going to be heaviest on Tuesday,
snow will be heaviest Wednesday
through Thursday,
and the Wind's strongest Tuesday morning.
Wind really starts to come
down during the afternoon,
but again, this all gets going at
about midnight into our Tuesday.
Winds will be strongest during the early
morning hours between roughly 4 and 8:00 AM.
They even start to calm down
just a little bit at 8:00 AM,
really calming down there by the afternoon,
but the rain will still be
going widespread power outages.
As I mentioned possible in the Sierra
you can see the moderate to widespread,
especially South of Hwy.
50, right near mammoth and along 395.
Once we get into the afternoon,
we'll see less impacts from the
wind creating power outages.
But we could find kind of that snowball
effect of everything coming in here.
So Monday evening is when we see
the onset of some lighter showers.
It's really early Tuesday morning with
the biggest band of rain and again that
snow line is going to be pretty high
throughout the entire day for many.
Areas, it's going to be above
past level during the morning.
We see periods of moderate to
heavy rain in the valley as well
as through the foothills.
And for this year,
it's gonna be a mix of rain and snow.
But the snow line doesn't
come down until the evening.
That's when we see better opportunity
for snowpack growing in the Sierra.
We're starting to see the
back edge of this system,
so there's just not a whole lot
of moisture left at that point.
Rain and snow will be in
the moderate impact level.
Wind and travel are going to
be in the high impact and then
we're going to focus on flooding.
As well, again,
more on the moderate side of
the impact level.
Dangerous driving conditions, though.
Growing with ponding water that
could lead to roadway flooding,
some local St.
flooding,
as well as rises on creeks and streams
that could overflow their banks and
cause some localized flooding as well.
So turn around, don't drown.
That continues to be the message
when we talk about flooding.
In the Sierra, near whiteout conditions,
major travel delays, possible Rd.
closures,
and chain controls as well.
The bottom line here is travel is highly
discouraged on and off throughout the week.
Tuesday morning,
our snow line is above the pass.
We could find a periods of that
snow down to about the past level,
but it's not going to be that
widespread low snow event that gets
those chain controls so low and
causes big backups in the syrup.
During the day though,
we've got a lot of changes coming to
the forecast. Is that cold air works in.
It's going to help to get that snow
line coming down to roughly about 5000
to 5500 feet by early Wednesday morning.
Again,
there's not a whole lot of
snow left at that point,
but that's where we're gonna put
that snow level by Wednesday morning.
Total snow accumulation 12 to 36
inches for parts of the Sierra Lassen,
getting the biggest totals there
at 24 to 36 inches.
With chains, travel and changing snow levels,
the main snow impacts on
the rain side of things.
Again, this is just through Wednesday.
This doesn't account for the
multiple storms in the pipeline here.
One to two inches for the
valley and towards the Coast,
2 to 5 inches for the foothills.
And again, this is going to be a rain mixed
with snow event for South Lake Tahoe.
So we'll still give it 3 to 4 inches
of rain for South Lake Tahoe,
with longer travel times ponding on
roads and rises on creeks and streams.
Looking at the total accumulation
through Friday,
this will just be through storm system #2.
We'll get 2 to 5 inches of rain in
the Valley, 4 to 8 for the foothills.
And 24 to 54 inches of snow for this
year and it's just because we just
don't have a really robust snow
event going on with the biggest
storm coming in initially.
Now in terms of flooding,
it's not that we're really
concerned about our reservoirs.
They have plenty of capacity.
We're only sitting at 30 to 32% for Oroville,
Shasta and Folsom with New Maloneys
and Don Pedro at 25 to 50% fall,
plenty of room for any water
that comes down the hill.
What will have the bigger
impacts are some of the smaller.
Tributaries and some of
those smaller waterways.
Now, the rivers are big,
but they'll still start to see some rises,
especially with some of that
snow melt coming down the hill.
Two places that we'll be looking
at by Thursday are going to be the
Sacramento River at Tisdale Weir and
then also the Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar.
So it's going to be near flood stage.
We'll watch that for some growing
concerns with our water levels there,
especially once we get through
this weekend and into next week.
We'll time that out again.
Here we go.
During the evening is when we see
the rain really picking up during
the early morning hours of Tuesday,
and the rain and snow will be
present in this year with that
snow line coming down again.
That storm system #1 Wednesday,
for all intents and purposes is going
to be a fairly decent day of travel.
But then by Wednesday night through Thursday,
we'll get a weaker storm.
This is going to be storm system #2.
It is colder,
so we're snow level is going
to be quite a bit lower,
roughly about 3500 to 4500 feet,
so if you're traveling up
into the Sierra on Thursday.
Is going to be slow going
if not even some Rd.
closures because of the fact that we're
going to have those chain controls
so much lower on Thursday morning.
Rain continues throughout the valley,
lighter amounts,
but it's gonna add to those totals
right behind it without much break.
Actually we get Friday into Saturday
storm that one happens to be warmer again.
Snow levels are a little bit
early to tell how
high they're actually going to be,
but right now it's looking more like
6000 to even. 7500 feet, again,
that's going to be rain on top of that
snowpack putting avalanche risk at a
higher risk there for the end of the week.
This is going to lead us all the way
into New Year's Eve, New Year's Day.
I know it's a big skiing
and snowboarding period,
but it's one of those things that it's
just flat out really dangerous again.
Wednesday being perhaps the
best day for our travel,
the way that things are playing out
right now because we get right back
into this active weather period,
Thursday, Friday and Saturday,
Saturday though by the evening.
It is looking like things are
going to start to clear up.
So for the mountains,
the hills and the coast,
and we'll include the valley in there,
it is looking like the better day.
These are big atmospheric rivers,
those big plumes of moisture
out in the Pacific.
That fetus with the rain and snow
that we actually need this time of
year is just on the flip side of
things that can be quite hazardous.
So it's both the mix of the beneficial
and the hazardous that we look
at for these atmospheric rivers.
The first one hits for Tuesday.
This is going to be the biggest one for
us and then the weaker one hits on Thursday.
Followed directly behind it with the Friday,
Saturday storm Saturday night through
Sunday to welcome in the New Year.
We're dry,
but here we go again by Monday,
another line of storms getting
ready to hit California.
Now it's early in the game to
really pinpoint and fine tune
that forecast into next week,
but the guidance is showing that
we're going to be back to a wet
period by next week as well.
It's well needed rain.
We're starting to see those deficits grow
as we head into what should be the rainiest.
Point in our gear, we're down almost an
inch for Sacramento and San Francisco,
closer to about 5 inches for parts
of the northern areas of the state.
And those were hardest hit by
the drought last year,
January, February and March.
This is great rain.
We have the capacity to hold it right now,
but successive storms coming in next
week could put some pressure on many
of our waterways this year so far.
At about 135 to almost 200% of normal,
this is really gonna bump up those
numbers by the end of this week.
If we weren't to get anything
else for the rest of the year,
we'd be close to about 40 to
50% of our April 1st average,
which is generally the mark that we look
at for how much runoff we're going to get,
filling our reservoirs and feeding
us with the water that we need
through the dry summer months.
And these are welcome storms again,
we just need a little bit of a break so
that everything can kind of
flush through the system.
And get the state,
the water that we need.
So our average to date
throughout the state is 152%,
again 43% of that April 1st average.
Here is a look at a very wet 10 day forecast,
a bit of a break on Wednesday and
then we are right back to the
rain heading into New Year's Eve.
But New Year's Day looks dry again next week.
It's still to be determined
but it's something to watch,
especially with growing flooding concerns.