BLAKE: GOOD TO SEE YOU, TAKE
CARE.
ON NOW TO THE NATIONAL RETAIL
FEDERATION STILL PREDICTING
RECORD HIGH HOLIDAY SPENDING
THIS YEAR.
KRISTINA WENT OVER SOME OF THAT.
THE NRF PRESIDENT AND CEO
MATTHEW SHAY JOINS US NOW.
HI, MATTHEW.
>> HEY, BLAKE, HOW ARE YOU?
BLAKE: DOING ART.
HAPPY FRIDAY. -- ALL RIGHT.
YOU’RE PREDICTING A SALES
INCREASE THIS YEAR AS KRISTINA
TALKED ABOUT, 3, 4, 5%,
DEPENDING ON HOW IT SHAKES
OCCUPANT.
I’M WONDERING WHY YOU THINK
THAT’S THE CASE CONSIDERING THE
STATE OF THE ECONOMY WHERE WE’VE
SEEN, BASICALLY, UNEMPLOYMENT
TWICE AS WHERE WE ARE NOW
COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR.
WHY ARE YOU SO OPTIMISTIC?
>> THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
FACTORS.
WE’VE BEEN DOING THIS FORECAST
FOR MORE THAN 20 YEARS.
WE LOOK AT PROBABLY TWO DOZEN
BASIC MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
WHETHER THAT’S THE UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE OR HOUSING STARTS OR
GASOLINE PRICES, UNEMPLOYMENT.
SO WE’VE GOT A LOT OF HISTORY OF
THIS STUDY BEING, THIS FORECAST
BEING VERY, VERY ACCURATE AND
REFLECTIVE OF THE ECONOMY.
SO WE’VE GOT THAT FOUNDATION.
WE ALSO HAVE THE LAST SIX MONTHS
OF CONSECUTIVE MONTH OVER MONTH
AND YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAIL SALES
GROWTH.
CONSUMERS HAVE BEEN OUT POWERING
THE ECONOMY FROM JUNE WHEN WE
REALLY WENT BACK INTO MORE OF A
OPENED ECONOMY WHEN WE GOT BACK
TO BUSINESS IN A LOT OF WAYS.
SO WE’VE SEEN THIS, AND THE
OCTOBER NUMBERS THAT CAME OUT
YEAR-OVER-YEAR UP 10.5% OVER
OCTOBER OF 2019.
SO CONSUMERS ARE OUT THERE.
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS STILL
FAR TOO HIGH.
THERE ARE MILLIONS OF AMERICAN
FAMILIES, WORKERS, BUSINESSES,
COMMUNITIES THAT ARE SUFFERING.
THAT’S WHY WE REALLY BELIEVE
THAT WE NEED ADDITIONAL FISCAL
SUPPORT AND STIMULUS ARE.
WHOP THAT POLICYMAKERS WILL --
WE HOPE THAT POLICYMAKERS WILL
GET THAT DONE.
BUT CONSUMERS OVERALL ARE OUT
GETTING ENGAGED IN THE
EXPERIENCE, AND WE KNOW THEY ARE
REPURPOSING A LOT OF DOLLARS
FROM OTHER SECTORS OF THE
ECONOMY.
BLAKE: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT
THIS BECAUSE HOW MUCH DO YOU BUY
INTO THE IDEA THAT THERE HASN’T
BEEN VACATION SPENDING, GAS,
ETC., MAYBE INSTEAD OF THAT
HOTEL THAT YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN
IN IN FLORIDA, INSTEAD THE IT
GOES TO THAT WHATEVER THAT YOU
BUY IN STORE OR ONLINE?
>> YEAH, THAT’S ABSOLUTELY TRUE.
AND WE’VE SEEN IT THROUGHOUT
THIS YEAR AS CONSUMERS HAD TO
MAKE DIFFERENT CHOICES ABOUT HOW
TO SPEND THEIR MONEY.
SO THE HOME BECAME THE PLUS THAT
YOU, FROM WHICH YOU WORKED, YOU
ENTERTAINED, YOU WENT TO SCHOOL,
YOU EXERCISED, ALL OF THOSE
THINGS, AND THAT’S DRIVEN
CONSUMPTION.
THE ESTIMATES THAT WE’VE SEEN
ARE BETWEEN 350-500 BILLION
DOLLARS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
WOULD BE SPENT ON SERVICES AND
EXPERIENCE WHETHER THAT’S
TRAVEL, ENTERTAINMENT, DINING,
LODGING, FLIGHTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THEY’RE REALLY
NOT RECOVERING YET.
BLAKE: LET ME ASK YOU, AND IF WE
COULD PUT THAT GRAPHIC BACK UP
OF THE BUG BOX RETAILERS,
BECAUSE WE KNOW WHO’S BEEN A
WINNER OVER THE LAST 6-8 MONTHS
OR SO.
YOU LOOK AT TARGET, FOR EXAMPLE,
AMAZON AS ANOTHER ONE.
HOW MUCH OF THIS SPENDING IS
GOING TO THE MASSIVE COMPANIES
BECAUSE OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE
THAT THEY HAVE SET UP AND THE
ONLINE PRESENCE THAT THEY HAD
GOING INTO AND BUILT OUT DURING
IT VERSUS THE MOM AND POP SHOP
WHEN YOU TALK A RIGHT AT THE
STOP SIGN?
>> I THINK IT’S INTERESTING, WE
WERE PRETTY VOCAL IN OUR
EXPRESSION OF FRUSTRATION THAT
EARLIER THIS YEAR THERE WERE
SOME REAL ARBITRARY DECISIONS
MADE ABOUT WHICH BUSINESSES
COULD REMAIN OPEN AND WHICH WERE
FORCED TO CLOSE.
IT WASN’T BASED ON HEALTH AND
SAFETY GUIDELINES, SIMPLY BASED
ON THE PRODUCTS THAT THESE
BUSINESSES SOLD.
THERE’S NOTHING INHERENTLY
UNSAFE ABOUT A SWEATER OR PAIR
OF SHOES THAT MAKES IT LESS SAFE
THAN A LOAF OF BREAD OR A POUND
OF GROUND BEEF.
WE THOUGHT ALL BUSINESSES SHOULD
HAVE REMAINED OPEN.
HAVING SAID THAT, THERE’S BEEN A
REBOUND AND A RECOVERY FOR MANY
OF THOSE BUZZES FORCED TO
CLOSE -- BUSINESSES FORCED TO
CLOSE.
RETAILERS SHOWED TREMENDOUS
AGILITY.
CONSUMERS HAVE BEEN RESILL CENT,
BUT THERE’S STILL FAR TOO MANY
BUSINESSES THAT NEED SUPPORT,
AND THAT’S WHY WE’RE VERY VOCAL
MANY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
FISCAL STIMULUS.
BLAKE: I’M GLAD YOU SAID THAT,
BUT A I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT
THAT.
AS SOMEONE WHO SPENDS MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE WHITE
HOUSE, I CAN TELL YOU AS YOU’VE
BEEN FOLLOWING THE HEADLINES,
IT’S, IT DOESN’T LOOK GOOD FOR
ANOTHER RELIEF PACKAGE IN THE
SHORT TERM AT THE END OF THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, AND YOU’VE
GOT TO QUESTION HOW IT HAPPENS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION IF THERE’S A
REPUBLICAN SENATE AS WELL.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS NOT
ANOTHER RELIEF PACKAGE?
>> WELL, BLAKE, YOU KNOW, I
THINK WE’RE AWARE THERE ARE A
NUMBER OF PROGRAMS THAT ARE
GOING TO EXPIRE.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE BENEFIT
EXTENSIONS, MORATORIUMS ON
EVICTIONS AND FORECLOSURES ON
MORTGAGES, THINGS LIKE THAT.
THERE’S A LOT OF SUPPORT THAT
OUGHT TO BE FORTHCOMING FROM THE
CONGRESS --
BLAKE: I KNOW IT SHOULD BE
COMING, BUT WHAT HAPPENS IF IT
DOESN’T, I GUESS, IS THE BOTTOM
LINE.
>> WELL, YOU TALKED IN YOUR LAST
SEGMENT ABOUT THE POLITICS OF
THE MOMENT GIVEN WHAT’S
HAPPENING IN THE SENATE RACE IN
GEORGIA, THINGS LIKE THAT.
AND I POKE TO SECRETARY MNUCHIN
A FEW DAYS AGO, WE’VE SPOKEN TO
THE BIDEN TRANSITION TEAM.
EVERYBODY RECOGNIZES WE NEED TO
DO SOMETHING.
WE E NEED THE POLITICS TO GET
OUT OF THE WAY.
WE NEED FOLKS TO COME TOGETHER.
BLAKE: REAL QUICKLY, WHAT DUD
THE BIDEN TRANSITION TEAM TELL
YOU?
>> WELL, I THINK THERE’S A
RECOGNITION THAT EVERYBODY SEES
WHATS’ HAPPENING IN THESE --
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THESE
ECONOMIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
IN THESE COMMUNITIES.
WE KNOW THAT WE NEED MORE
RELIEF.
SO, AGAIN, EVERYONE’S PLAYING
THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
HOPES OF A BIGGER, BETTER DEAL,
AND AT SOME POINT I THINK WE
HAVE TO RECOGNIZE BETTER TO HAVE
SOMETHING BEFORE THE END OF THIS
YEAR.
AND IF THERE’S A DESIRE AND A
NEED TO GO BACK AND DO MORE NEXT
YEAR, THEN WE CAN HAVE THAT
CONVERSATION NEXT YEAR.