Hello and welcome to the latest update of the sugarcane rainfall outlook for the Central
District.
We'll look into how the ACCESS-S model verified for rainfall over the month of May before
touching on June rainfall to date.
We'll then cover short-term weather watch points and see what the Rainfall Outlooks
have in store over the coming months before finishing with a quick tour of the Climate
Services for Agriculture website.
So how did the Bureau's ACCESS-S model perform over the month of May?
In the image on the left we have the observed rainfall, in the middle that rainfall converted
to a percentage of mean and on the right the ACCESS-S Rainfall Outlook for May.
Broadly it's done a good job capturing those below average falls through central Queensland
with most locations receiving less than the median rainfall for May however the Mackay
region is an outlier with above average rainfall for the month, most of which fell in a very
localised event on the 11th of May.
During June rainfall has been below average for most areas so far to date with around
20 to 50 percent of the June average rainfall received so far as shown by those red dots
on the right.
In the short term no rainfalls is expected across the region over the next week with
a high in the Coral Sea extending a weak ridge along the Queensland coastline keeping conditions
stable.
Here we have the chance of exceeding five millimetres of rainfall over the next fortnight
broken down into week-long periods.
You can access these maps on the link above and choose from a number of different rainfall
thresholds between one millimetre and 700 millimetres.
For week one from the 25th of June to the 1st of July it's really only the exposed coastal
fringe around Mackay and north to the Conway Ranges with a 10 to 25% chance of more than
five millimetres with elsewhere looking at a less than 10 percent chance.
And into week two a slightly increased odds for five millimetres with 10 to 25% chance
for most parts increasing to 25 to 50% around Mackay and the Conways and the Ranges behind
Mackay.
Moving on to the month of July and we're looking at close to neutral odds of exceeding the
median rainfall around 40 to 45% chance east of Proserpine with slightly at lower odds
of 35 to 40% for Proserpine, Mackay and the Pioneer Valley.
The model skill during July is moderate, typically correct 55 to 65% of the time increasing to
an accuracy of 65 to 75% around the Mackay coastline.
This means this coming July is looking drier than the median as we have lower odds of seeing
rainfall close to the historical median for the month, we can see that in comparing from
the slightly lower values in the 50% chance of at least chart on the left the historical
median map on the right.
Breaking the rainfall odds down further for July with the high chance on the left the
75% chance of receiving and the lower chance totals on the right the 25% chance of receiving
to give us an idea for the potential rainfall spread for the month.
So for example roughly eyeballing Mackay and the Pioneer Valley we're looking at around
1 to 25 millimetres through there.
Into the August outlook, and we can see neutral odds of 45 to 55% near the coast with slightly
lower odds 40 to 45 percent of exceeding the median range for further inland the model
scale typically gets it correct 55 to 65 percent of the time across much of the region increasing
to 65 to 75% accuracy north and east of Proserpine.
The model is suggesting the upcoming August will be close to or slightly drier than median
as we can see from the lower rainfall values in the 50% chance of at least chart on the
left compared with the historical median values on the right.
Breaking the rainfall odds down further for August here with the high chance on the left
75% at least and the lower chance totals on the right the 25% chance of exceeding to give
us an idea for the potential rainfall spread for the month.
So eyeballing for Mackay, Proserpine and the Pioneer Valley around 1 to 25 millimetre rainfall
range is capturing the middle fifty percent of rainfall and higher totals are likely around
the ranges.
Looking into the long-term Outlook now from August to October and lower odds of exceeding
the median rainfall of around 35 to 45% are predicted through the region for that period.
The model skill is moderate to high typically correct 65 to 75% of the time through this
forecast period.
Both Australian and International climate models are indicating strong odds of both
a positive IOD event and a El Niño to be underway during late Winter and Spring.
Here I'm showing a map of the mean rainfall deciles for the last seven times we've seen
an El Niño and an IOD co-occurring since 1960 when reliable records for the IOD commenced.
And when these two combine it typically leads to drier than normal conditions for much of
eastern Australia, and that's also what's been reflected in the rainfall outlook on
the previous slide.
The Climate Services for agriculture website is a collaboration between the bureau and
CSIRO.
It's a platform being developed to help farmers adapt to climate variability and trends and
has been funded by the Australian Government's Future Drought Fund.
Uou can find it at climateservicesforag.indraweb.io the link is spelled out above and this will
take you to the home page where you type in your location at the top of the map here and
once you've selected a location press continue at the bottom right.
There is a treasure trove of information to mine on this website but today we're keeping
to the Seasonal Rainfall Outlook so choosing this third column the Seasonal Outlook on
the right.
This takes you to a great rainfall display, on the left you can choose between monthly
and seasonal outlooks so we're looking at the July outlook for Mirani here or you can
flick to seasonal and get the three-month Outlook from July to September as well.
So it's using the same data available on the Bureau Climate Outlooks but presented in an
alternate format here for your point locations giving the 75% chance 50% chance and 25% chance
of exceeding across the top there with the skill levels shown below in a star rating.
On the bottom left a detailed rainfall breakdown with chance of receiving at least for a number
of rainfall thresholds and on the right a handy summary of the median rainfall, the
rainfall received last July and the rainfall over the past three months as well.
It's in a prototype stage, they are hungry for feedback so if you have suggestions for
what you'd like to see there's a feedback option on the top of the page.
That's it for this update as always check the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's
website or the BOM Weather App.
Please send any feedback through to agriculture@bom.gov.au, we'd love to hear from you about ways we might
improve the service.
See you next Outlook, thanks for listening.