BRIAN: BENJAMIN HALL LIVE IN
KYIV, THANK YOU, SIR.
JOINING ME NOW IS JAMES
CARAFANO, HERITAGE FOUNDATION
VICE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL
SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY.
WELCOME, JAMES.
I’VE GOT TO START WITH ZELENSKYY
THERE.
OBVIOUSLY, HE IS COMMITTED TO
GETTING THESE PLANES FROM NATO
ALLIES, AS HE SAID, SO HE CAN DO
THE WORK HIMSELF.
IS THAT SOMETHING THAT CAN WORK,
DO YOU SEE THAT HAPPENING, AND
IS IT A GOOD IDEA?
>> I CERTAINLY DON’T THINK IT’S
A SILVER BULLET.
THIS HASN’T REALLY BEEN AN AIR
WAR.
MOTIVE THE DESTRUCTION HAS
BEEN -- MOST OF THE DESTRUCTION
HAS BEEN ARTILLERY, MISSILES,
ATTACKS ON THE GROUND.
NEITHER SIDE HAS REALLY
EXPLOITED AIR DOMINANCE, YOU
KNOW, BOMB THE GUYS, FOR
EXAMPLE, LIKE WE DID IN THE
FIRST GULF WAR.
IF THEY HAD PLANES, THEY STILL
FACE A REALLY VERY DIFFICULT AIR
DEFENSE UMBRELLA YOU HAVE TO FLY
THROUGH, SO I DON’T THINK IT’D
BE GAME-CHANGER.
HAVING SAID THAT, IF YOU CAN GET
PLANES TO THEM THAT THEY KNOW
HOW TO FLY AND THAT THERE ARE
PARTS AND LOGISTICS AND
AIRFIELDS TO SUPPORT THEM, I
THINK THERE’S NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GIVING A GUY
A PLANE AND GIVING A GUY A
JAVELIN.
YOU’RE GIVING THEM EQUIPMENT TO
DEFEND THEMSELVES, I THINK
THAT’S PERFECTLY APPROPRIATE.
BRIAN: JAMES, IS THERE A
GAME-CHANGER?
ARE THERE ANY MILITARY SUPPLIES,
ANY WEPRIN -- WEAPONRY THAT NATO
ALLIES OR THE U.S. COULD GET TO
UKRAINE THAT WOULD CHANGE THE
GAME OR ANYTHING SORT OF NATO
DIRECT INVOLVEMENT, IT’S JUST A
QUESTION OF HOW LONG AT THIS
POINT?
>> YOU KNOW, LOOK, THERE’S A
FAMOUS SAYING UNLEASH THE DOGS
OF WAR, IT’S FROM SHAKESPEARE.
ONE OF THE PROBLEMS OF
UNLEASHING THE DOGS OF WAR IS
YOU’RE NEVER SURE WHO THE DOGS
ARE GOING TO BITE.
WHO KNOWS HOW THIS REALLY TURNS
OUT.
HAVING SAID THAT, THE RUSSIANS
HAVE VIRTUAL, YOU KNOW,
SANCTUARY.
THEY CAN JUST KEEP FEEDING STUFF
INTO THIS FIGHT, AND SO THIS IS
ESSENTIALLY ATTRITION WARFARE.
AND THE UKRAINIANS CAN ONLY
FIGHT AS LONG AS THEY HAVE
WEAPONS AND STUFF AND THEY CAN
HOLD ON.
SO THERE’S ONE BIG ISSUE HERE
WHICH IS, OF COURSE, THOSE
SUPPLY -- IF YOU CAN’T GET IN
THE UKRAINE, THEN IT’S GOING TO
BE VERY, VERY DIFFICULT TO
MAINTAIN A CONVENTIONAL FORCE.
IF YOU CAN, THEN IT’S A QUESTION
OF HOW MUCH CAN THEY FIGHT AND
HOW MUCH ARE THE RUSSIANS GOING
TO BURN THROUGH.
THE BUT THE FORCE RATIOS ARE
STILL IN RUSSIA’S FAVOR.
I THINK THAT’S FAIR.
BRIAN: TAKE A LISTEN TO WHAT
PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SAID TO ABC
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
NEGOTIATION WITH RUSSIA.
LISTEN TO THIS.
>> WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE IS FOR
PRESIDENT PUTIN TO START
TALKING, START THE DIALOGUE
INSTEAD OF LIVING IN THE BUBBLE
WITHOUT OXYGEN.
I THINK THAT’S WHERE HE IS.
HE IS IN THIS BUBBLE.
HE’S GETTING THIS INFORMATION,
AND YOU DON’T KNOW HOW REALISTIC
THAT INFORMATION IS.
BRIAN: SO PUTIN’S IN A BUBBLE,
ZELENSKYY SAYS.
I DON’T SEE HIM COMING OUT OF
THAT ANYTIME SOON.
DO YOU SEE ANY HOPE THAT THERE’S
ANY KIND OF NEGOTIATED TALKS OR
DIPLOMACY THAT COULD HAPPEN IN
THE IF NEAR TERM TO TRY TO
ALLEVIATE SOME OF WHAT WE’RE
SEEING?
>> WELL, I MEAN, THE RUSSIANS
WOULD HAVE TO CHANGE THEIR
POSITION.
WHAT THE RUSSIANS HAVE PUT ON
THE TABLE IN NEGOTIATING ARE
BASICALLY DO ALL THE THING WE
WANT TO DO TO YOU VOLUNTARILY.
SO THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE
DESTRUCTION OF THE UKRAINIAN
STATE.
LOOK, THERE’S GOING TO BE --
RESULT IN MASS SUFFERING AND
STARVATION OF THE UKRAINIAN
PEOPLE AND INCREDIBLE
OPPRESSION.
SO, LITERALLY, THE RUSSIANS’
POSITION IS COMMIT NATIONAL
SUICIDE, THAT’S THEIR
NEGOTIATING, YOU KNOW, OPENING
BID.
SO UNLESS SOMETHING ALTERS THE
MILITARY CALCULUS FOR PUTIN AND
THEY ACTUALLY BEGIN SERIOUS
NEGOTIATIONS, I DON’T THINK THE
KIP LOMATIC TRACK -- DIPLOMATIC
TRACK GOES ANYWHERE.
I CAN TELL YOU ONE THING, IF WE
DON’T CONTINUE -- IT’S GAME OVER
IF WE CAN’T CONTINUE TO GET
MEDICAL SUPPLIES, FOOD, WEAPONS
TO UKRAINIANS.
THEN IT’S JUST AN AFTERTHOUGHT.
BRIAN: JAMES, REALLY QUICKLY,
THERE’S MORE AND MORE TALK ABOUT
NO-FLY ZONES OVER UKRAINE.
THAT WOULD, OBVIOUSLY, CHANGE
THINGS.
HUGELY RISKY STUFF.
DO YOU SEE ANYTHING LIKE THAT ON THE HORIZON?
THE HORIZON?
>> WELL, WE’D HAVE NUCLEAR
POWERS CONFRONTING EACH OTHER.
TWO, IT’D BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
EXECUTE, AND THE THIRD IS, LOOK,
THIS IS PRIMARILY A GROUND WAR.
EVEN IF WE GROUNDED THE PLANES
ON BOTH SIDES, THE RUSSIANS
STILL HAVE ALL THE MISSILES AND
ARTILLERY.
SO IT DOESN’T REALLY CHANGE THE
OUTCOME OF THE WAR.
THE WAR’S GOING TO GET FOUGHT
OUT ON THE GROUND, NOT IN THE
AIR.
BRIAN: JAMES CARAFANO, WE ALWAYS