♪
>> NEW YORK IS ON SALE RIGHT NOW
IN A WAY THAT WE HAVEN’T SEEN IN
A REALLY, REALLY, REALLY LONG
TIME, AND YOU’LL START TO SEE
THAT IN THE NUMBERS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE MONTHS, THAT
OPPORTUNISTIC BUYERS --
NEIL: SO, IN OTHER WORDS,
OVERREACTION -- THEN THERE’S AN
OVERREACTION TO THOSE WHO WANT
TO QUIT ON THE CITY, QUIT ON NEW
YORK, ALL OF THAT, AND IT COULD
BE LEADING TO BIG BUYS RIGHT
NOW.
>> BUYERS ARE STARTING TO COME
BACK.
I THINK THERE’S GREAT, GREAT
OPPORTUNITY.
AND, NO, PEOPLE IN NEW YORK
ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THESE
CITIES, THEY FREAK OUT, RIGHT?
THEY FOLLOW THE HERD.
AND THEY GOT NERVOUS, SO THEY
LEFT.
AND THEY’RE A ALL GOING TO COME
BACK, AND THAT’S WHAT WE’RE
PREPARED FOR.
IF.
NEIL: THAT WAS RYAN SIR HAND A
YEAR AGO, A YEAR AGO TODAY ON
THIS VERY SHOW, TALKING ABOUT
THE BOOM TO COME IN NEW YORK
REAL ESTATE.
BUT IT WAS ANYTHING BUT A BOOM
TIME FOR REAL ESTATE.
A LOT OF PEOPLE THE HEADLINES
WERE EVERYONE’S GETTING OUT.
AND THEN THE ADD AUDACITY TO
THAT, RYAN DECIDES TO START HIS
OWN BROKERAGE IN THE MIDDLE OF
ALL OF THIS.
SO A LOT OF PEOPLE, INCLUDING
MYSELF, FRANKLY, THOUGHT HE WAS
CRAZY.
BUT APPARENTLY HE WAS NOT.
HE SAW SOMETHING, HE’S NOW
RUNNING ONE OF THE MOST
SUCCESSFUL BROKERAGES IN THE
CITY AND BEYOND, AND HE JOINS US
RIGHT NOW.
RYAN, GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
>> YOU KNOW WHAT?
LISTENING TO THAT AUDIO QUOTE
THAT YOU JUST HAD, IT JUST
VALIDATES SO MUCH BECAUSE NOT
ONLY DID YOU THINK I WAS A
LITTLE CRAZY, BUT SO MANY PEOPLE
THAT THAT NEW YORK CITY WAS
OVER.
AND LOOK WHERE WE ARE NOW.
QIF 3 CONTRACTS ARE UP 104%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR, AND WE’RE UP 50%
HIGHER THAN WHERE WE WERE IN TO
2019 WHICH WAS WELL PRE-COVID.
PRICING IS UP INCREDIBLY HIGH.
SURGE IN DEMAND FOR LARGE
APARTMENT, THREE AND
FOUR-BEDROOM LUXURY HOMES ARE UP
102 AND 1399 % RESPECTIVELY --
1399 % RESPECTIVELY JUST FROM
ONE YEAR AGO.
AND PENTHOUSE DEMAND ARE UP
120%MENT I THINK RIGHT AFTER WE
DID THAT, I WENT AND SOLD A
PENTHOUSE THAT WAS ASKING FOR 40
MILLION, IT SOLD FOR 22.5, IT’S
PROBABLY WORTH SOMETHING LIKE 45
TODAY.
NEIL: WE’RE SEEING THE SAME
THING THAT’S BEEN GOING ON IN
WEST PALM BEACH IN FLORIDA, SOME
OF THE OTHER HIGH-END MARKETS,
BUT IS THE HIGH END INDICATIVE
OF EVERYWHERE ELSE?
YOU HEAR ALL OF A SUDDEN PEOPLE
ARE HOLDING BACK ON PURCHASES.
HOW WOULD TO YOU EXPLAIN IT?
JUST A BIFURCATED MARKET?
HOW WOULD YOU LOOK AT IT?
>> I THINK EVERY MARKET -- YOU
HAVE THE INNOVATOR, OKAY?
TYPICALLY, THAT IS THE PERSON
WHO HAVE THE VERY INTENSE MARKET
KNOWLEDGE.
THOSE ARE THE WEALTHY, THEY’RE
BUYING FIRST.
WE SAW THAT IN 2011 AND WE SAW
THAT IN 2020.
AND THEN YOU HAVE THE IMITATOR,
AND THAT’S EVERYBODY ELSE COMING
THROUGH.
AND THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT WE’RE
SEEING NOW.
YOU KNOW, LAST YEAR WE WERE
DOING A LOT OF LARGE PURCHASES
AT HEAVY DISCOUNTS.
WE WERE DOING A LOT IN PALM
BEACH.
I SOLD THE MOST EXPENSIVE HOME
IN THE HISTORY OF FLORIDA FOR
JUST UNDER 140 MILLION ON NORTH
COUNTRY ROAD IN JANUARY --
NEIL: OH, THAT WAS YOU.
I DIDN’T KNOW THAT WAS YOU.
>> NEIL, IT’S ALWAYS ME.
OKAY?
[LAUGHTER]
AND THERE ARE LOTS OF PEOPLE
COMING INTO NEW YORK AND
FLORIDA, AND THEY ARE, THEY’RE
KIND OF FOLLOWING, THEY’RE
FOLLOWING THAT INNOVATOR.
THEY’RE FOLLOWING THEIR BOSSES.
THEY UNDERSTAND THAT IF THEY’RE
OR OUT OF SIGHT, OUT OF MIND,
THERE’S ONLY SO MUCH THEY CAN DO
THROUGH ZOOM, YOU KNOW?
AND SO THE ENTIRE MARKET IS
MOVING IN A VERY, VERY HEALTHY
WAY.
THIS ISN’T AN OVERHEATED MARKET
DUE TO, YOU KNOW, FREE ACCESS TO
CREDIT, LET’S SAY.
THIS IS A SMART MARKET.
PEOPLE ARE MAKING SMART
DECISIONS, THEY JUST HAVEN’T
BOUGHT HOMES BECAUSE THEY WANTED
THEM SINCE 2007.
WE ARE SELLING HOMES NOW TO
PEOPLE WHO WANT THEM AND NEED
THEM.
THAT’S A HEALTHY MARKETPLACE.
AND SO IT’S EXCITING, AND IT’S
GREAT TO HEAR THE WAY WE WERE KIND OF PREDICTING IT A YEAR AGO
KIND OF PREDICTING IT A YEAR AGO
BECAUSE WE WEREN’T REALLY SURE.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, I CAN SEE THE
FLORIDA THING, A BIG BROKERAGE
FIRM JUST ANNOUNCED ITS
INTENTIONS TO HEAD TO MIAMI, SO
YOU WOULD THINK THAT WOULD HURT
NEW YORK.
IF THEY’RE LEAVING FROM THESE
HIGH-TAX STATES OR CITIES, THAT
IT WOULD HURT NEW YORK, BUT IT
IS NOT.
WHY IS THAT?
>> BECAUSE CALIFORNIA HAS DONE
EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO CONVINCE
PEOPLE TO LEAVE, AND SO WE HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF HIGH-END
PURCHASERS COMING FROM
CALIFORNIA TO NEW YORK IN PART
BECAUSE THE FLIGHT FOR THEM TO
FLORIDA IS NOW SO MUCH FAST THER
BECAUSE YOU CAN JUMP ON AN
AIRPLANE AT 6 A.M. IN NEW YORK
CITY, YOU CAN HAVE A BREAKFAST
WITH, FIRST MEETING AT 9 A.M.,
HAVE LUNCH WITH A BUDDY OR, YOU
KNOW, HIT SOME GOLF BALLS, DO
SOME KITE SURFING AND GET HOME
BY DIPPER TIME.
YOU CAN’T -- BY DINNER TIME.
YOU CAN’T DO THAT WHEN YOU LIVE
ON THE WEST COAST.
WITH SO MUCH MIGRATION FROM NEW
YORK TO FLORIDA, THE OPEN SPACE
IS BEING ABSORBED QUICKLY BY
PEOPLE WHO OTHERWISE MIGHT NOT
HAVE NECESSARILY COME TO NEW
YORK CITY.
BUT WE SEE THAT EVERY CYCLE.
WHEN PEOPLE MOVE OUT, OTHER
PEOPLE MOVE IN, AND NOBODY LEFT
NEW YORK, AT THE END OF DAY.
MORE PEOPLE MOVED TO NEW YORK IN
THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF THAN
ACTUALLY LEFT.
SO YOU HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH WHAT YOU READ, YOU KNOW?
YOU’VE GOT TO MAKE SURE YOU GET
ALL THE FACTS AND MAKE YOUR OWN
EDUCATED DECISION BECAUSE PEOPLE
CAN BE SPOOKED BY HEADLINES AND
ALL OF A SUDDEN THAT BECOMES
FACT WHEN REALLY IT’S NOT.
NEW YORK, A LOT OF THE LUXURY
MARKETS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE
VERY, VERY GOOD, HEALTHY PLACES,
AND THE ONLY THING THAT REALLY
HURTS THEM CAN BE LOCAL
GOVERNMENT, AND THAT’S WHAT
WE’RE SEEING.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, YOUR BASE OF
BUYERS IS THE SAME BASE THAT
RIGHT NOW IS BEING TARGETED FOR BIG, BIG TAX HIKES.
BIG, BIG TAX HIKES.
AND I’M WONDERING, IS THAT
>> IT DOES CONCERN ME BUT I ALSO
REALLY LOOK AT HISTORY, I THINK
WERE PROBABLY HAVING THE SAME
CONVERSATION IN 1910, BEFORE
INCOME TAX BECAME A THINK IN
1911 IN 1912, WERE VERY
STRESSFUL YEARS BUT GUESS WHAT,
WE MADE IT AND WE FIGURED IT OUT
AND WE WERE ALWAYS FINDING A WAY
IS CONVINCING THE BUYERS TO DO
SOMETHING I HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE
FLORIDA THIS SAY YOU KNOW WHAT,
IS GOING TO PAY FOR MY NEW BEACH
HOUSE AND THAT IS WHAT THEY ARE
DOING BY DECLARING RESIDENCY
THERE IN SCHOOLS ARE GREAT.
OFFICES ARE BEING BUILT LEFT AND
RIGHT IN NEW YORK REALLY NEEDS
TO UNDERSTAND THAT AND THEIR TAX
BASE IS GOING TO MOVE.
SOMEONE HAS TO PAY THE BILL.
NIEL: THAT IS VERY TRUE.
ON THAT LEVEL, PRESIDENT BIDEN
GETS A FRACTION OF THIS PACKAGE.
FINALLY IT IS ABOUT ATTITUDE AND
I THINK, IT IS ALL ABOUT BEING
UPBEAT AND POSITIVE AND YOU A
YEAR AGO TODAY WHEN YOU’RE
TALKING WITH ME ABOUT THINGS BUT
ANTI- WAS TALKING ABOUT THE
BRAVO AND WHAT HAPPENS AND HE
SAID OF YOU, RYAN IS NOT ONLY
CHARMING AND HILARIOUS, HE COULD
SELL MILK TO A COW AND I’M
WONDERING IF THAT IS YOUR
APPROACH.
THAT YOU ARE SO OPTIMISTIC AND
AGGRESSIVE ABOUT THINGS THAT I
WONDER IF YOU ARE CLIENTS ARE
JUST SAYING THAT BRIAN MAY NOT
BUY THIS UNIT. GUEST: I FORGOT THAT HE SAID
GUEST: I FORGOT THAT HE SAID
THAT ABOUT ME, YES,.
[INAUDIBLE].
NIEL: WILL JUST CALL THAT ONE OF
HIS GOOD.
GUEST: I LIKE IT, I CAN PROBABLY
SELL MILK TO ACCOUNT.
NOSE AND WE WE BELIEVE THE
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
NOT JUST IN NEW YORK CITY BUT
GLOBALLY AND I WANT OUR BRANDED
TO BE SYNONYMOUS WITH LUXURY
REAL ESTATE AROUND THE WORLD FOR
THE REST OF TIME.
AND I THINK THAT I HAVE A VERY
VERY MUCH OF APPROACH OF HOW WE
WORK WITH PEOPLE WHETHER THEY
ARE LOOKING FOR A HOUSE FOR
500,000 OR 141 AT 40 MILLION, I
THINK THE SAME BUT AGAIN THAN
EVERYTHING A DAY THAT I WAKE UP,
CAN LOOK AT THE WINDOW AND I CAN
SEE SUNSHINE SO I CAN LOOK AT
THE WINDOW I CAN SEE RAIN AND
CLOUDS.
I CHOOSE SUNSHINE EVERY DAY NO
MATTER HOW BAD IT IS BECAUSE
LOOK WHAT WE HAVE COME THROUGH,
FROM 911 - HURRICANE SANDY,
2008, A LOCAL PANDEMIC THAT SHUT
DOWN INDUSTRIES LEFT AND RIGHT
AND WE ARE COMING OUT OF IT
EVERY TIME STRONGER AND STRONGER
AND STRONGER AND I THINK THAT WE
ARE VERY RESILIENT PEOPLE, WE
ARE SMARTER EVERY DAY THAN WE
HAVE EVER BEEN AND WE THAT HAVE
ACCESS TO INFORMATION EVERY DAY
IN OUR FINGERTIPS AND MORE THAN
WE EVER HAVE AND THAT GIVES ME A
LOT OF HOPE AND OPTIMISM.
WE SHOULD NOT LIVING PRETTY
HOMES BECAUSE THAT NIGHT
CHAMPION FORWARD MOVEMENT AND
MOMENTUM AND PROGRESS EVERYDAY
AND I THINK THAT CLIENTS WHO
CHOOSE TO WORK WITH US, THEY’RE
EQUALLY EXCITED ABOUT LIFE AND
NEVER HAD ANYONE BUY A MILLION
DOLLAR HOME WHILE CRYING.
SO THERE’S ALSO THAT.
SUE AND THERE IS ALSO THAT, WELL
YOU COMING ALONG AND GOOD LUCK
COMING OUT OF THE SHELL AND I’M
GLAD YOU’RE LISTENING TO ME AND
A YEAR AGO.
YOU’RE KIND OF DEBBIE DOWNER