>>> JUST A SHORT TIME FROM NOW, THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT IS SET TO
BEGIN A KEY BREXIT VOTE,
DECIDING IF IT’LL ACCEPT THE
AGREEMENT NEGOTIATED BY PRIME
MINISTER THERESA MAY’S
GOVERNMENT AND THE EUROPEAN
UNION.
UNION. EARL
EARL EARLIER, THE BRITISH PRIME
MINISTER WARNED THAT WITHOUT
SUPPORT FOR HER DEAL, BREXIT
COULD BE LOST.
AND THE PRESSURE IS ON.
THERE ARE ONLY 17 DAYS LEFT
UNTIL THE TRANSITION PERIOD
BEGINS WITH OR WITHOUT A DEAL.
THE UK TRIGGERED A TWO-YEAR
CLOCK WHEN IT INVOKED THE EU
EXIT CLAUSE, AND THERE’S NO SIGN
THE EUROPEAN UNION IS INTERESTED
IN EXTENDING THAT DEADLINE.
ONE KEY ISSUE IN THIS WHOLE
THING IS THIS.
THIS IS THE BORDER ALONG
NORTHERN IRELAND, THIS PART
HERE, WHICH IS PART OF THE
UNITED KINGDOM, AND THE REPUBLIC
OF IRELAND, WHICH IS A SEPARATE
COUNTRY THEY THAT WILL REMAIN
PART OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.
LAWMAKERS CREATED THE SO-CALLED
BACKSTOP PROVISION, ENSURING
THERE WOULD BE NO HARD BORDER
BETWEEN THE IRELANDS, BUT
PRO-BREXIT POLITICIANS DON’T
WANT THIS TO BECOME A PERMANENT
THING.
THING. IN MOST OTHER SITUATIONS, A
PHYSICAL BARRIER OF SOME TYPE AT
BORDER CHECK POINTS WOULD BE PUT
IN PLACE TO REGULATE THE FLOW OF
GOOD AND PEOPLE.
BUT IN IRELAND, THINGS ARE
DIFFERENT BECAUSE OF HISTORY.
A PHYSICAL BARRIER DEFINES SOME
OF THE MOST PAINFUL AND DEADLY
PARTS OF THE 20th CENTURY ON THE
ISLAND.
ISLAND. MANY IN NORTHERN OOIR LANE AND
THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SAY ANY
BORDER CHECK POINTS COULD
REIGNITE TENSIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
DORMANT SINCE THE 1998 GOOD
FRIDAY AGREEMENT.
FRIDAY AGREEMENT. TO HEAD OFF THAT POSSIBILITY,
THE BRITISH AND THE EUROPEAN
UNION NEGOTIATORS CREATED A
BACKSTOP PROVISION.
BACKSTOP PROVISION. IT KEEPS BRITAIN IN THE EUROPEAN
CUSTOMS UNION SO THERE WOULD BE
NO BORDER CHECKS BETWEEN
NORTHERN IRELAND AND IRELAND,
BUT BRITAIN WOULDN’T BE PART OF
THE LARGER EU IN TERMS OF TRADE
POLICY.
POLICY. SO THAT UNDERCUTS SOME OF THE
KEY ARGUMENTS FOR LEAVING THE
EU.
EU. AND WHILE SOME EUROPEAN
OFFICIALS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
ONLY NORTHERN IRELAND
PARTICIPATE IN THE BACKSTOP,
BRITISH POLITICIANS HAVE
REJECTED THAT BECAUSE IT WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CREATE A BORDER
BETWEEN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND
NORTHERN IRELAND IN THE IRISH
SEA, ISOLATING NORTHERN IRELAND
AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING IT
CLOSER TO REUNIFICATION WITH THE
REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN IRELAND,
WHICH IS PART OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION.
UNION. JOINING ME NOW FROM LONDON, NBC
NEWS CHIEF GLOBAL CORRESPONDENT
BILL NEELY.
BILL NEELY. TO TODAY’S VOTE, ANY
EXPECTATIONS HOW THIS IS GOING
TO GO?
TO GO? IS THERESA MAY FINALLY GOING TO
WIN A VOTE?
>> Reporter: I THINK THE SHORT
ANSWER IS NO.
REMEMBER, JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO
IN JANUARY, SHE LOST A VOTE ON
THE DEAL, EXACTLY THE SAME THING
IS GOING TO BE PUT TO THE HOUSE
TONIGHT BY 230 VOTES.
THAT WAS THE BIGGEST DEFEAT IN A
HUNDRED YEARS.
HUNDRED YEARS. I DON’T THINK SHE’LL BE DEFEATED
BY THAT MARGIN TONIGHT, BUT
WE’LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THREE
FIGURES.
FIGURES. IT WOULD TAKE AN ABSOLUTE
MIRACLE FOR HER TO WIN.
THE ARITHMETIC SIMPLY DOESN’T
ADD UP.
ADD UP. IT WAS ALL LOOKING QUITE GOOD
FOR HER THIS MORNING.
SHE CAME BACK FROM STRAUSBURG,
HAVING NEGOTIATED LATE LAST
NIGHT WITH EUROPEAN LEADERS, AND
HAD GOT TO WHAT SEEMED TO BE A
CONCESSION, SOME KIND OF LEGAL
ASSURANCE THAT THE UK WOULDN’T
BE TRAPPED FOREVER IN THIS
ARRANGEMENT, THE BACKSTOP A
CUSTOMS UNION.
CUSTOMS UNION. BUT CRUCIALLY, HER ATTORNEY
GENERAL SAID MIDMORNING THAT
WHILE THE ASSURANCES HAD REDUCED
THE RISK THAT THE UK WOULD BE
PERMANENTLY TRAPPED IN A CUSTOMS
UNION, IT HADN’T GOT RID OF THE
RISK ALTOGETHER.
RISK ALTOGETHER. SO SUDDENLY, THE FANCY WRAPPING
PAPER AND THE NEW RED RIBBON
THAT SHE PUT AROUND THE DEAL
SIMPLY FELL AWAY.
AS A RESULT, A FEW HOURS AGO HER
MAIN POLITICAL ALLIES IN
PARLIAMENT, THE NORTHERN IRELAND
UNIONS, SAID THEY WOULDN’T
SUPPORT THE DEAL, AND MANY
CONSERVATIVES WITHIN THE
HARDLINE BREXITEER BLOC WILL
EITHER VOTE AGAINST OR ABSTAIN.
I THINK PROBABLY, AND I’M NOT
ONE TO PREDICT ANYTHING CAN
GREAT CERTAINTY, BUT PROBABLY
THIS -- THE VOTE IS LOST AND THE
DEAL, AS IT STANDS AT THE
MOMENT, IS DEAD.
THE BIG QUESTION IS, WELL, TWO,
NUMBER ONE, IS THERESA MAY
POLITICALLY DEAD?
POLITICALLY DEAD? NUMBER TWO, WHAT ON EARTH
HAPPENS NEXT?
HAPPENS NEXT? >> WE’RE CLOSE TO 30 YEARS AWAY
FROM THE WORST OF THE VIOLENCE
IN NORTHERN IRELAND.
I’VE TRIED TO EXPLAIN AS BEST I
CAN.
CAN. HOW SERIOUS IS IT AN ISSUE IF
THEY DON’T WORK THIS OUT AND
THERE IS A BORDER BETWEEN
NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND?
>> Reporter: WELL, OPINION IN
NORTHERN IRELAND, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BORDER, ON BOTH SIDES
OF THE BORDER, IS ABSOLUTELY
CLEAR.
CLEAR. THEY DO NOT WANT WHAT’S CALLED A
HARD BORDER.
HARD BORDER. WHAT THAT MEANS IS CUSTOMS POSTS
POSSIBLY PROTECTED BY POLICE
CHECK POINTS, IF IT CAME TO IT,
BY ARMY CHECK POINTS.
THERE ARE, YOU KNOW,
RECONSTRUCTED TERRORISTS OUT
THERE WHO WOULD ONLY BE TOO
HAPPY TO ATTACK THOSE POSTS.
AND YOU COULD HAVE THE BEGINNING
OF THE WAR AGAIN, THE TROUBLES.
AND NOBODY, NOBODY ON THE ISLAND
OF IRELAND WANTS THAT.
IRONICALLY, A LOT OF PEOPLE IN
NORTHERN IRELAND ARE NOT
REPRESENTED BY THE D.U.P., AND
THEY WOULD BE PERFECTLY HAPPY TO
SEE THE UK REMAIN.
IN FACT, THEY VOTED FOR THE UK
TO REMAIN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION,
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MARCH 29th IS
COMING FAST.
COMING FAST. SO JUST VERY BRIEFLY, THE NEXT
STEP, TOMORROW THEY’LL VOTE YES
OR NO ON NO DEAL.
IN OTHER WORDS, WILL THE UK
CRASH OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
THEN ON THURSDAY, THEY WILL VOTE