STRIKE ON A UKRAINIAN MILITARY
BASE THAT LEFT AT LEAST 35 DEAD
AND NEARLY 135 INJURED.
THE AIR STRIKE IN WESTERN
UKRAINE IS PART OF THE ONSLAUGHT
THE KREMLIN UNLEASHED AS IT
TRIES TO SUBDUE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF UKRAINE BY
RELENTLESSLY SHELLING CIVILIAN
HAVENS THERE AND ATTACKING
EVACUATION CORRIDORS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTRY.
JOINING ME NOW, MSNBC NATIONAL
SECURITY ANALYST CLINT WATTS,
DISTINGUISHED FELLOW AT THE
FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH
INSTITUTE AND AUTHOR OF "MESSING
WITH THE ENEMY."
CLINT, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR
COMING TO "THE SUNDAY SHOW," AND
HELPING THE VIEWERS UNDERSTAND
THE LAY OF THE LAND.
LITERALLY.
WHAT'S GOING ON IN UKRAINE, THAT
DEADLY AIR STRIKE TARGETING THE
MILITARY BASE IN EASTERN UKRAINE
WAS ABOUT 12 MILES FROM THE
POLISH BORDER.
TALK ABOUT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF
THAT ATTACK.
>> WELL, JONATHAN, I THINK IT'S
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF,
BECAUSE THE RUSSIANS KNOW AS
LONG AS UKRAINIAN MILITARY AND
HUMANITARIAN POPULATIONS,
CIVILIAN POPULATIONS, CONTINUE
TO BE RESUPPLIED, THEY WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO DEFEAT THE UKRAINIAN
MILITARY.
INCREASINGLY YOU'LL SEE THIS.
PART BECAUSE OF WEST HAS BEEN
VERY VOCAL ABOUT THEIR SUPPORT
FOR MATSWHAT'S GOING ON IN UKRAI
BUT WILL PUSH RUSSIA TO TRY TO
ATTACK THE SUPPLY LINES FROM THE
POLISH BORDER INTO THE CENTER OF
KYIV.
THE WARFARE WE'VE SEEN RUSSIANS
UNDERTAKING, PARTICULARLY IN
MARCH PALL AND ALSO WHAT THEY'RE
TRYING TO DO IN KYIV, IT WILL
NOT WORK WITH A SUSTAINED SUPPLY
LINE FROM POLAND.
I EXPECT YOU'LL SEE MORE ATTACKS
FROM THE WEST IF THIS CONTINUES.
>> DO YOU THINK THE RUSSIANS ARE
TRYING TO PROVOKE THE WEST?
TRYING TO PROVOKE NATO AND THE
UNITED STATES BY LAUNCHING AN
ATTACK LIKE THIS?
>> I DON'T SEE IT AS A
PROVOCATION, BUT PROBABLY TRYING
TO ESTABLISH HOW FAR FORWARD
NATO AND THE U.S. WILL GO IN
TERMS OF HELPING UKRAINE.
SO THEY'RE ALL ABOUT DETERMINING
WHAT THE REDLINE IS TO MARCH
RIGHT UP TO IT.
I IMAGINE VLADIMIR PUTIN AND ALL
OF HIS DEPUTIES TRYING TO FIGURE
OUT WILL NATO GET INTO THE
FIGHT?
HOW FAR CAN WE PUSH UP TO THAT
POLISH BORDER.
ALSO, THEY'RE ATTACKS HAVE NOT
BEEN PARTICULARLY ACTIVE.
12 MILES IN A FIGHT OTHER JET AT
10,000 FEET OR ABOVE IS AN INCH
OR TWO IN TERMS OF TARGETING.
VERY SMALL AMOUNTS.
I'M WORRIED WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF
MISSILES WERE TO DRIFT INTO
POLAND, HOW NATO MIGHT RESPOND
TO THAT AND HOW THEY ARE
PREPARED, OR WHAT THEY WOULD DO
WITH MISSILING LANDING FURTHER
WEST INTO NATO TERRITORY.
>> AND PEOPLE FOCUSED ON THE
CAPITAL OF KYIV AND RUSSIANS
TRYING TO ENCIRCLE THAT CITY.
THERE ARE REPORTS BELARUS COULD
COMMIT TROOPS TO RUSSIA'S WAR ON
UKRAINE.
HOW WOULD THAT CHANGE THE
DYNAMIC OF THE ASSAULT ON KYIV?
>> JONATHAN, STRAIGHT MAN POWER.
LOOK AT RUSSIANS.
NO ONE KNOWS WHAT KIND OF LOSSES
THEY'VE TAKEN BUT IN THE
NORTHERN CORRIDOR.
TALKED ABOUT A CONVOY TWO WEEKS
AGO.
IT'S CLEARLY TRYING TO SKIRT
AROUND TO THE WESTERN PART OF
KYIV AND CUT IT OFF OF SUPPLY
ROUTES OFF TO THE WEST.
THEY NEED MORE MAN POWER TO TAKE
A CITY LIKE KYIV.
A LARGE POPULATION CENTER AND
THEY ARE TAKING INCREDIBLE
NUMBER OF CASUALTIES AND ALWAYS
LOOKING FOR REINFORCEMENTS.
BACK HOME INSIDE RUSSIA THE ONLY
WAY TO HIDE THE COMBAT OCCURRING
IN UKRAINE AND HOW POORLY THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS DONE TO
SOME DEGREE IS NOT HAVE TO CALL
UP MORE TROOPS.
ONLY WAY TO AVOID THAT, LEAN ON
ALLIES LIE BELARUS.
RUSSIANLESS TRY TO LEAN ON THEM
TO BRING IN MORE TROOPS.
ALSO SEEING CALLS FOR FIGHTERS
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST.
PARTICULARLY SYRIA AND COUNTRIES
THAT RUSSIA HAS A STRONG
ALLIANCE WITH.
IT WILL BECOME A MAN POWER ISSUE
OVER TIME, JUST SO THEY CAN
CONTINUE TO GRIND TOWARDS KYIV.
>> TALK ABOUT MAN POWER, ADVANCE
ADVANCING FROM KYIV IN THE NORTH
AND MARIUPOL IN THE SOUTH.
WILL THE RUSSIANS BE SUCCESSFUL,
CONSIDERING AS YOU JUST TALKED
ABOUT, IT'S BEEN A BRIND.
THERE'S BEEN BIG RESISTANCE
AMONG UKRAINIANS ON THE RUSSIANS
OVER THE LAST 18 DAYS.
>> SO IF YOU SEE THE CITIES
THERE YOU HAVE KHARKIV DOWN TO
MARIUPOL AND TO DNIPRO, SITS
RIGHT ON THE DNIPRO RIVER THASHS
CITY, THAT IS ESSENTIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF UKRAINE.
LOOKS LIKE TWO AXES OF ADVANCE
TO SEE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TRYING TO LINK UP AND
ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE TOWNS
CLOSER TO THE RUSSIAN BORDER.
THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM FOR THEM.
I THINK THAT'S WHERE THAT
QUESTION ABOUT CHEMICAL WEAPONS
COMES IN.
SOME OF THOSE TOWNS, RUSSIAN
BORDER, STIFF RESISTANCE FROM
UKRAINIANS, SLOWLY CUT OFF.
THE SECOND QUESTION IS, CAN THE
RUSSIANS SUSTAIN THOSE TWO AXES
AND ACTUALLY DO LOGISTICAL
RESUPPLY OVER AN ENDIRING BASIS.
I'M NOT CONVINCES THEY CAN.
I THINK TIME WILL TELL IN THE
NEXT ONE, TWO, AND THREE WEEKS
WHETHER THEY WERE STAIN THOSE
AND SEAL OFF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY.
I'M WORRIED FOR UKRAINIANS IN
THOSE CITIES CLOSER TO THE
RUSSIAN BORDER.
VERY TOUGH FOR THEM.
NOT A LOT OF WAYS TO RESUPPLY
AND SLOWLY OVER TIME THEY HAVE
TO FIGURE OUT OTHER WAYS TO KEEP
UP THE RESISTANCE, AND I'M SURE
THEY'RE THINKING THROUGH THOSE
THINGS, BUT IT'S VERY DIFFICULT
TO HELP THEM, THE CLOSER THEY
ARE TO THE RUSSIAN BORDER.
>> TO MAKE SURE I HEARD YOU
CORRECTLY.
I WAS GOING TO ASK YOU ABOUT
POTENTIAL OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS
BEING USED.
I THINK YOU SAID THAT TALK OF
THIS, OR THREATS OF THIS, USE OF
CHEMICAL WEAPONS, WOULD BE ON
TOWNS IN THAT EASTERN PORTION OF
UKRAINE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THAT
RIVER, THAT RUNS THE LENGTH OF
UKRAINE.
DID I GET THAT RIGHT?
>> YEAH.
THAT'S RIGHT, JONATHAN.
SO THE RUSSIANS STATEMENTS WERE
FALSE FLAG STATEMENTS SAYING
UKRAINIAN USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS
OR DETTONITED THEM.
ONE PLACE, OUTSIDE KYIV, BECAUSE
THEY MET STIFF RESISTANCE GOING
FROM DARK RED TO A MIX OF RED
AND PINK.
THAT CORERIDOR HAS A LOT OF
UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE AND
BYPASSES A LOT OF RUSSIANS
CORRIDORS.
THE RUSSIANS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR
TELLING ON THEMSELVES.
CHEMICAL WEAPONS USED ON
POPULATION CENTERS THAT COULD
NOT BE BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL.
FROM A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE, IF
YOU WANT TO TAKE A TOWN BUT NOT
BOMB EVERY SINGLE BLOCK OF THE
TOWN AND DESTROY IT OR LEVEL IT,
CHEMICAL WEAPONS ALLOW
ESSENTIALLY THE DEATH OF ALL
CIVILIANS INSIDE THAT LOCATION,
VERY HORRIBLE DEATH BUT THE
STRUCTURE AND THE CITY REMAINS
INTACT AND CAN BE RETAKEN OVER
TIME.
THAT'S WHAT I'M WORRIED ABOUT,
THE CLOSER THE RUSSIAN BORDER TO
STIFFER RESISTANCE IN THE CITY,
WHAT WOULD RUSSIANS HAVE TO DO
WITHOUT A GRINDING CHEMICAL
WARFARE.