Okay.
So for part two of the first democratic debate, I'll go right into the inclusion of Trump,
which is that Camilla Harris,
one last night's debate.
This was part two of this 20 candidate over two night.
A spectacle, I guess I would call it yesterday.
We had all the front runners except for Elizabeth Warren.
So we had Joe Biden last night, Bernie Sanders to a lesser degree of front runner status.
He booted judge a no clips today because NBC is reportedly being very aggressive with copyright
claims.
Uh, but the video of the full debate is widely available online.
Um, I have to address right up front.
Something weird was going on with Joe Biden.
I mean, yes, the things he said were kind of hit or miss and his performance wasn't
great in terms of substance, but I don't, I don't know what was going on.
I realized he's 76 years old and maybe this is just an older Joe Biden that we're seeing.
He's normally quite high energy and short of one question plus a sort of okay.
Closing statement.
He was very low energy and he almost seemed to be having that same speech thing going
on that Trump has had a few times.
Remember when Trump said, you know, God blessed the initiation of America and shrew Sholom
Israel and stuff like that.
Uh, Biden had something kind of similar going on to a lesser degree, which was odd.
Uh, Bernie Sanders did okay.
He actually rejected one or two questions as being incorrectly framed, which is great
because in night one, you basically saw the candidates answering the questions as asked,
and Bernie actually pointed out some of the framings of these questions are ridiculous.
Overall, there was not a lot of attacking, including of Joe Biden, which there was speculation
that we might see lots of.
Eric Swalwell tried some lame attacks on Biden.
He shouldn't even have been on the stage, quite frankly.
Uh, and they were irrelevant, sort of grasping at straws.
But the biggest attack on Biden was actually carried out very effectively by Carla Harris
when she attacked Biden on the issue of race for Biden's praise of segregationist senators.
And I'll tell you, Harris, his attack was clearly planned ahead of time, but it came
off as genuine and it was really effective and so for comparison, think back to night
one of this debate, we're Beta or Rourke clearly plan to at some point start answering a question
in Spanish and early in the debate he was asked what should the top marginal tax rate
be and then he awkwardly broke into incorrect Spanish without even addressing the substance
of the question, including such Spanish gems as a state economy and with through the McCroskey.
As I talked yesterday and it came off as pandering, the problem isn't speaking Spanish.
I would love to have a president that speaks more than just English.
That would be a great thing.
It's that it came off as very calculated, disingenuous, and particularly poorly timed.
Kamala Harris, his attack on Biden was also clearly planned.
She knew she was going to do this at some point, but it worked and it was not a good
moment for Joe Biden at all.
Also really strong on guns was Camila Harris.
She gave a bunch of specific ideas about what she would do.
Now most of them see she simply wouldn't be able to do unilaterally without huge congressional
support, but it didn't matter because on guns, a lot of the candidates spoken platitudes
with no real conviction or actual action items.
And Camila Harris gave a list of stuff unrealistic as it was and it played well.
So it really helped the perception of her performance.
Another strong Camila moment.
And again, listen, I don't like Kamala Harris has a candidate.
She's not in my top three.
I don't, I don't even think she's in my top five.
Uh, but I'm telling you how I saw the performance.
Another strong moment for comma was when she drew a distinction between her policy on immigration
and the Obama administration policy on immigration, which is a sort of proxy way to again distinguish
herself from Joe Biden, which was a great way to again, tout her left of Biden politics
in a way that comes off as, as genuine and precise.
Her weakest point was on the climate.
I mean, she broke into just platitudes on the issue of the climate.
So Candella Harris, I think the Winter Bernie did well, didn't do any damage, I don't think,
uh, but he struck me as slightly quieter and lower energy than the sort of normal Bernie
that we've become used to.
There's very little even to analyze with Bernie.
Again, he called out a couple of questions as improperly framed, which was good.
His first answer about inequality was right in his wheelhouse.
His closing was good and in between there's a lot of sort of blurry stuff.
Um, Biden was honest.
Biden in the sense that, for example, he didn't pretend to be for Medicare for all.
We were wondering is Joe Biden, even though we know that he's just a make tweaks to Obamacare
type of guy, is he going to pay lip service and sort of play coy with and blur the lines
with Medicare for all?
He clearly did not do that.
He said, I just want to kind of improve or tweak Obamacare.
I disagree with Biden on this issue.
He's an Obamacare guy.
I'm a, we need a totally different system guy, but I'm glad that he didn't sugarcoat
or try to sort of deceive as far as what his policy is on that issue.
He was up front in his completely Centrust policy and that's good for the audience to
see.
There'll be able to more accurately evaluate who it is they want to support.
Booted.
Judge did well.
My main critique of Buddha judge all along has been that he speaks eloquently while actually
saying very little in terms of policy and this applied to his website, which for a while
had a ton of stuff but no real policy.
His a town halls where he would say a lot without actually really saying much about
policy.
He still didn't say that much in terms of specifics, but he came off very well in the
way that an audience would perceive him.
And I think that Buddha judge was probably the second best performer last night.
Uh, Andrew Yang barely given a chance to speak at a post, uh, debate event.
He claimed that his Mike was off for periods of the debate.
That may have been true and I think it probably was not only Yang that had his Mike very low.
There were a bunch of times where Marianne Williamson Williamson was talking, but she
clearly was being picked up by somebody else's Mike, not her own.
Um, I did think during the debate that maybe Yang was just being too polite by not trying
to jump in, but it seems that maybe his Mike was just genuinely down.
I don't know.
The truth of that.
Uh, John Hickenlooper was a cartoon.
He continued attacking socialism during the debate.
Despite there being no real socialism being proposed.
He was kind of an embarrassing non-factor in a way.
Kirsten Gillibrand actually had a very good debate performance and some good moments.
She's pulling it 0.5%.
She didn't really get that many opportunities to speak and I don't think she's going to
become a factor.
Um, overall it's difficult to compare performances from night one tonight too.
But my final impression is that the night one winners were Warren de Blasio and Castro
in no particular order, but they were the top three performers on the first night.
Night two had a much clearer winter.
Kamala Harris followed by, I would say p booted judge and Bernie close behind.
Uh, and then lots of straight up bad performances last night in part two.
So we, we have to wait until we get new polling to actually know what the effect of the debates
is.
There are people saying, oh, look at this online poll, this person or that person.
Clearly one online polls are bogus.
Okay.
There's, it's just self selection.
Whoever decides to go and vote in the New York Times poll or the Daily Mail poll or
whatever, we'll, we'll, we'll find out next week.
I would be surprised if Kahmilah Harris's Poland doesn't go up.
I would be surprised if Joe Biden's polling doesn't go down a little bit because of this
debate.
It's hard to imagine Andrew Yang's polling going up by more than a point given that he
barely was given a chance to speak.
Biden has been the establishment DNC choice.
If Biden does start tanking, it's going to be either Kahmilah or Buddha judge who take
that position as the establishment favorites.
But I think it's, we've got a long way to go before that becomes a real conversation.
So overall, after both nights of debate, I believe ultimately this will be a race between
Biden, Bernie, Warren, Kahmilah and Buddha judge.
I don't think any other candidates are going to break through.
Many of them can start dropping out soon quite frankly.
And we will see when we get polling next week.
But at the very least, I don't know how you justify staying in much longer.
If you are, let me see if I've got them all.
Jill, a brand Tim Ryan who imploded on night one, Amy Klobuchar Hickenlooper and Delaney
Williamson, Bennett and Inslee.
I might be missing someone.
They can probably all drop out on Monday.
Um, and then there are three whose followers are expecting a big rise and if they don't
get it, they have to start thinking about what to do as well.
Those are uh, Gabard, Castro and Yang.
Gabard, Castro and Yang all have supporters who say they are going to break through to
like 5% or something.
Uh, after this first debate.
If they don't rise next week, they are going to need to start thinking about what their
path is as well.
Let me know what you think.
I'm on Twitter at d pacman.
The show is on Twitter at David Pakman show changed my mind.
You disagree