Humans are thought to be the most highly advanced civilization to have ever walked the face
of the Earth, if not the entire solar system.
The FERMI Paradox seeks to answer the question of, are we the only advanced civilization
in the universe?
When it comes to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), the Fermi Paradox remains
a stumbling hurdle.
This paradox, named after eminent scientist Enrico Fermi, addresses the seeming discrepancy
between the estimated chance that intelligent life is abundant in the universe and the apparent
absence of proof of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI).
Scientists have tried to explain this discrepancy in one way or another in the decades since
Enrico Fermi initially raised the question that captures this paradox “Where is everyone?”
However, according to a new study conducted by three renowned experts from Oxford University's
Future of Humanity Institute (FHI), the paradox is reevaluated in such a way that it appears
plausible that humanity is alone in the observable universe.
The study, titled “Dissolving the Fermi Paradox“, was jointly conducted by Anders
Sandberg, a research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute and a Martin Senior
Fellow at Oxford University, Eric Drexler; the well-known engineer who popularized the
concept of nanotechnology, and Tod Ord; a prominent Australian moral philosopher at
Oxford University.
For the purpose of their study, they re-examined Drake’s Equation, a famous equation proposed
by astronomer Dr. Frank Drake in the 1960s.
This equation, which is based on hypothetical values for a number of parameters, has for
long been used to show that, even if the amount of life forming at any particular site is
minimal, the sheer number of feasible sites should provide a considerable number of possibly
observable civilizations.
The equation states that the number of civilizations (N) in our galaxy that we might be able to
communicate to can be determined by multiplying the average rate of star formation in our
galaxy (R*), the fraction of those stars which have planets (fp), the number of planets that
can support life (ne), the number of planets that will develop life (fl), the number of
planets that will develop intelligent life (fi), the number civilizations that would
develop transmission technologies (fc), and the length of time that these civilizations
would have to transmit their signals into space (L).
Dr. Sandberg is not new to the Fermi Paradox, and he is not afraid to try and solve it.
Sandberg and his colleagues proposed in a previous study titled "That is not dead which
can eternally lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox" that the Fermi
Paradox arises from the fact that ETIs are not dead but are currently in a state of hibernation,
which they called "aestivation", and are waiting for better conditions in the universe.
Later in a study conducted in 2013, Sandberg and his research associate, Stuart Armstrong,
extended the Fermi Paradox to look beyond our galaxy, looking at how more advanced civilizations
would possibly be able to undertake colonization projects with relative ease, and even move
around galaxies without any difficulty.
In the recent study, Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord revisit the Drake Equation's parameters
by integrating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the genesis of life.
As a result, they illustrate that numerous scientific uncertainties are spanning multiple
orders of magnitude.
Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord viewed the parameters of the equation as uncertainty ranges.
The parameters of the equation were considered as uncertainty ranges by Sandberg, Drexler,
and Ord.
They looked at the largest and smallest values they could have based on current knowledge
rather than focusing on what value they might have.
While some values have been well-constrained, such as the number of planets in our galaxy
based on exoplanet research and the number that exist within a star’s habitable zone,
others remain considerably more uncertain.
Instead of the guesstimates that mostly go into the Fermi Paradox, the team came up with
a distribution when they merged these uncertainties.
Due to the large number of uncertainties involved, this naturally resulted in a wide dispersion.
However, as Dr. Sandberg noted, it gave them an estimate of the possibility that humanity
is alone in the galaxy (based on what we know).
Finally, the team's findings do not imply that humanity is alone in the universe, or
that proof of extraterrestrial civilizations (both past and present) is less likely to
be discovered.
Instead, it basically means that we can conclude with greater certainty, based on what we know,
that humankind is presently the only intelligent species in the Milky Way galaxy.
And, of course, it all boils down to the uncertainties we are currently dealing with in terms of
the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and the Drake Equation.
In this regard, the research undertaken by Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord indicates that
more research needs to be done before we can try to figure out the possibility of ETI out
there.
So, cheer up SETI aficionados!
While we may not be able to obtain correct values for the Drake Equation anytime soon,
the more we study, the more refined the values will get.
And keep in mind that the Fermi Paradox can only be resolved once intelligent life is
discovered.
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