He may have Aliens and T2 under his belt, but James Cameron has never even attempted
a third franchise movie. Is his impossibly ambitious vision for Pandora just a pipe dream?
The sequel to 2009's smash hit Avatar is back at long last,
but fans of James Cameron's record-breaking franchise have much more to look forward to
even after The Way of Water. Avatar 3 is already pretty much locked in,
and James Cameron has many plans in place for more Na'vi thrills.
This is why Avatar: The Way of Water doesn't matter quite as much as you might expect from
a massive end-of-the-year blockbuster by a filmmaker of Cameron's pedigree.
With a third movie in the works, the immediate future of the series is already pretty clear,
regardless of how The Way of Water pans out. Because of this,
the Avatar movie you should really be paying attention to is the third one.
Virtually everything about the Avatar franchise will be riding on the third installment, which
won't enjoy the bump in curiosity from fans who have waited over a decade to return to Pandora.
Early Twitter buzz around Avatar: The Way of Water has been largely positive,
and why wouldn't it be? Piranha II: The Spawning notwithstanding,
James Cameron's history as a genre sequel writer-director is peerless.
"Hasta la vista, baby."
Though even Cameron himself admits that The Way of Water is a terrible business case,
one that'll need to become one of the most successful movies
in history just to break even, it's hard to bet against his CV.
Avatar 3, however, is where things will get tricky. Cameron is a great filmmaker,
but he's also kinda sporadic. In fact, The Way of Water is his 21st directing credit in 44 years,
which includes individual TV episodes, documentaries and short films. While he's
been a nigh-invariable success story on the director's seat, Cameron is an
unproven helmsman when it comes to steering a franchise beyond that first sequel. Sure,
he produced Terminator: Dark Fate, but he has never fully committed to a film
franchise after a sequel — and certainly not on the scale that Avatar demands.
In other words, Cameron's plan is to venture far beyond familiar waters. Nevertheless,
the director has laid out plans for multiple big-budget sequels that are all set in the
same universe, something that's entirely uncharted territory in his body of work. And
we simply won't know whether he's capable of doing this until Avatar 3 is released.
Let's be honest: James Cameron could have retired to a tropical island after pretty much any of his
umpteen smash hit movies. The fact that he has constantly pushed on, embraced new technology,
and focused on making even more impressive films is testament to his drive to surpass himself.
Since making a sci-fi sequel is his bread and butter, The Way of Water is just one dazzling step
in his Avatar masterplan — but this idea can't truly unfold until Avatar 3 spreads its wings.
As a filmmaker, Cameron certainly has the chops to deliver multiple epic sci-fi works, and he's had
plenty of time to draft the stories he wants to tell in this world. But are there enough enticing
stories to tell on Pandora? Or has Cameron become so enamored by his stylish world that he fails
to see there's not enough substance for his multi-movie story arc? Only Avatar 3 will tell.
Considering Cameron's tenacity, especially when it comes to the Avatar movies,
it's clear that he views them as his biggest, boldest filmmaking move yet.
He has chosen to commit himself to building a mega-franchise from scratch. What greater
legacy can there be than building an entire, beloved universe with your own two hands?
None of the major sci-fi franchises on which Cameron has worked have
peaked past their first two movies. This creates mighty expectations for Avatar 3,
which is the first "Avatar" movie that forces Cameron beyond the "successful movie and its
sequel" structure, and into the franchise territory he seems so keen to explore.
Possibly the best point of comparison to what Cameron seems to be trying to
do is fellow sci-fi franchise chef George Lucas.
"Hello there."
If Cameron manages to expand his universe the way Lucas crafted the original Star Wars trilogy,
he might very well turn Avatar into a multimedia powerhouse. If this happens,
expect to see Pandora-centric movies and TV shows long after Cameron is gone. However,
if the filmmaker gets lost in the style-over-substance mode of Lucas'
prequel trilogy, his expensive experiment may turn into a massive, embarrassing failure.
It's pretty impressive, really. After all, it's not every day that we see an established superstar
filmmaker swinging for the fences the way Cameron does with the Avatar movies, especially at this
relatively late stage of his career. When it comes to Cameron's own reputation as a filmmaker,
Avatar 3 could well be his best chance at a home run — or an easy way to strike out.
And then there's the money. James Cameron has said that he is fully prepared to wrap
Pandora up after Avatar 3 if the movies don't turn in a pretty profit. This financial aspect
further increases the third Avatar movie's importance in the grand scheme of things. In
a worst case scenario, Avatar 3 will not only be responsible for its own box office — it's
also Pandora's last line of defense if Way of the Water's numbers disappoint.
There's a good chance that will happen, too. Per Variety,
The Way of Water's breakeven point is somewhere in the vicinity of $2 billion. For comparison,
2022's other major long-gestating sequel, the highly successful Top Gun: Maverick,
has made $1.48 billion so far. Should The Way of Water peak at such numbers,
and assuming that Avatar 3 also comes with a $2 billion profit margin, the movie would
need to make over $2.5 billion to break even and cover The Way of Water's slack. To achieve this,
Avatar 3 would have to become the third highest-grossing movie in history.
This hypothetical scenario might seem like a big ask, but it's not unattainable — at least,
if your name is James Cameron. The movie that Avatar 3 would need to surpass for that number
three spot is none other than Titanic, which currently sits at $2.2 billion. Of course,
topping the overall list is the original Avatar, which has raked in a cool $2.92 billion over the
years, with the September 2022 release alone boasting a $30-million premiere weekend.
So, if anyone can make these absurd numbers work,
it's James Cameron. Still, it's likely that even he'll be sweating for quite a while,
seeing as Avatar was the embodiment of "slow and steady," making a relatively meager $77
million during its opening weekend and building from there. As such, even if they're successful,
The Way of Water and Avatar 3 may take a long time to make their billions. Will the studio grow tired
of this high-stakes gambling with achingly slow returns? Will Avatar 3 need to make an immediate,
colossal box office impact to reassure everyone involved? This may be yet another reason to keep
an eye on what might turn out to be the most important movie of Cameron's career.