Speaker 1: All sorts of different right wing media types on the Internet have increasingly
been talking about a civil war, a civil war that they believe is coming and in some sense
a civil war that some of them seem to actually be welcoming.
And whether it is because of those individuals or for other reasons.
We now have two in five Americans, roughly 40% of Americans who believe that within the
next decade there is going to be another civil war here in the United States.
Now, when we say civil war and United States, what we think back to is the Civil War in
the United States, of course, in the 19th century, which was a war essentially over
slavery, it was between the Union and the Confederacy, the union which wanted to end
slavery and the Confederacy which wanted to keep it.
Now, there's been revisionist history which has been done to sort of glorify the Confederacy
or at least make it seem more benign.
And usually the way that's done is they say it's not about a war to keep slavery.
It's a war for states rights, a fundamental conservative value.
And sure, if what the states wanted a right to do was to keep slavery illegal, then so
be it.
But really, it wasn't about slavery.
It was about states.
Right now that's B.S.
doesn't we don't have to get into more detail, but that is the the false story that many
of those who I guess today would still be on the side of the Confederacy.
Like that's the story they like to tell about the first civil war.
And now we have an Economist YouGov poll wherein 40% of Americans believe we are heading towards
another civil war.
Now, let's look at a couple of the different things that are in this poll.
First and foremost, do Americans expect political divisions and violence to increase over the
next few years?
And the answer is that on political divisions, two thirds of Americans believe we will be
more politically divided, and that political division is likely to increase.
And on political violence, 65% believe that political violence has increased.
And looking ahead, 62% believe it will continue to increase.
Now, what is the partizan split here?
This is very, very important for those who say that in the last year and a half, the
country has become more divided.
Republicans are more likely than independents and Democrats to say that.
Now, what has happened during that time?
Well, a Democrat, Joe Biden, became president of the United States.
The mere presence of Biden, they believe, has made the country more divided.
And if you look at looking ahead, do you think the amount of political division is more likely
to increase, stay the same or decrease?
It is Republicans more than Democrats that believe political division will increase,
but it's not a big difference.
This is actually quite interesting because it's only a 14 point split.
The country is mostly on the same page, both Republicans and Democrats.
58% of Democrats think there will be more political division and 72% of Republicans.
It is a difference, but it is not a dramatic partizan difference.
Now, on the issue of civil war, this is very, very important and disturbing.
Take a look at these numbers.
Among adult citizens in general, 43% say it is very or somewhat likely that there will
be another civil war in the next ten years.
And this is where the partizan split is somewhat more significant.
Among Democrats, those, for example, who are strong Democrats.
40% believe a civil war is very or somewhat likely, whereas among strong Republicans,
54% believe a civil war is very or somewhat likely.
That is a significant difference.
But also, it's not like the 7020 type thing.
You know, you there are questions you can ask people and the partizan split is significantly
more dramatic.
I'm struggling to think of which ones they would be, but on issues related to, for example,
guns, sometimes you see a massive partizan split.
14 points on civil war is not like a dramatic split.
Now, where I believe you would see a significant difference would be if you ask folks, what
do you believe would cause such a civil war?
What do you believe would cause such a civil war?
My instinct is and this is something that you would have to do a poll on.
If you ask the left wingers, what do you think would cause the Civil War?
I think most left wingers would say right wingers launching a civil war.
And if you asked the right wingers what would cause a civil war, I think they would mostly
say the left wingers would cause a civil war.
In other words, I think in different terms you would see both the left and the right
say that it would be the right that would precipitate and take action on that civil
war.
The leftists would say the right wingers are going to do it because they don't like the
ways in which society is changing.
And the right wingers would say, we had no choice because look what the leftists were
doing to our country.
Very different moral frameworks in terms of who is responsible.
But I think it would be, in a sense, an agreement in that it would be the rightists who actually
launch it.
And the rightist would say, well, we had no choice because of what the leftists have done
to this country.
Not particularly pleasing numbers.
I mean, when nearly half the country thinks in the next decade there will be a civil war.
It doesn't seem to be boding particularly well.
We're going to follow these numbers and it would be good to have other polling as well,
because it is increasingly a topic.
I mean, later in the show, actually, we're going to have a clip of conspiracy theorist
Alex Jones who just got dinged for 49 million in a defamation suit.
He seems to be trying to precipitate that civil war and is predicting it.
I think within the I think he said in 71 days, oddly specific.
But we'll get to that Alex Jones clip a little bit later on
in
the show.