Hi everyone my name is Lee, and welcome to the Tesla economist. In this video I wanted
to work out Tesla Vehicle production per year per factory up to 2030.
Just to be clear, this is a forecast of production for Tesla's vehicles, it is not a price target
for 2030. Although perhaps we could play with some numbers in another video. In a previous
video I tried to work out how Tesla would achieve a 20 million a year run rate going
by the growth that it is somewhat expected. However, it didn't fit very well into the
model, we had to force numbers, and it wasn't right, although it did provide us some good
insight on how to do it right. And that's what we will do now, forecast the production
with numbers that are right.
PLAN What we plan on doing here is estimating Tesla's
total production for each year, and see what it comes to. I mean if this goes well, we
should have a reasonable idea of what Tesla can accomplish each year, at least as far
it comes to vehicles. We are going to ramp the vehicle production at about the speed
we might expect Tesla to be achieving. I think realistically for a new factory, when Tesla
have the hang of 4680 set up and production, and the dry battery electrode magic, then
they should hit volume production within 6 months, and probably reach a run rate of 500,000
a year after a years production, from each location.
From there we would expect each location to expand with more buildings and continue to
grow to 1.5 or 2 million run rate. The numbers will still be a little rough, but even if
I am off by as much one million and we are at a 5 million a year run rate, then is it
really going to upset you that much? Do you realize how much Tesla is worth when they
can produce even 4 million Model Ys, 3s and Cybertrucks a year? No? Well me neither actually,
but I would like to know. So I think I will continue this model further in another video
and estimate the profit that each of these years might generate too. Let me know if you
want to see that, although I'll probably do it anyway, as it sounds like some good information
to me.
My point was though, that when Tesla hit 4 million, then the stock price should be up
about to about $3,000, which is a great return from where we are now. Especially if it might
be within about a couple of years time. I just have a feeling that the next couple of
years may be better than we all think.
ASSUMPTIONS We will work with some assumptions here. One
being that Tesla did manage to reach the necessary volume production for 4680 cells to cater
to the vehicle production. We are also going to assume that Texas and Berlin did hit volume
production, Elon said they will hit that extremely likely by the end of this year, if not at
the start of next. And 2022 will see 1.5 million production. We will go through each year,
and I will explain as to why I think it is at the production level I have chosen.
2023 Alright starting with 2023 we are meant to
have Texas Model Y at the start of the year at a run rate of around 20,000 a month, and
then 40,000 by the end of the year, so how about we average 30,000 a month for the year,
and do the same for Berlin. Texas also has the Cybertruck, which should also produce
50,000 vehicles next year, if production starts mid next year, although it is possible they
reach volume production by then too. Shanghai is going to be about 1.3 million,
with those new line upgrades. And it should have a new fab too, but that will likely not
be ready until half way through next year at the earliest, so there may only be about
50,000 from that next year. We keep hearing Fremont has more expansion, but see very little,
this is possibly due to cell limitation still, of which the 4680 production will hopefully
rectify. We also expect the S and X to improve by then too. So I am going to place 700,000
for Fremont.
We are also meant to have a new location built in 2023, so let's say they manage to squeeze
50,000 from that before the end of the year.
Well that comes to 2.7 million, which is 80% growth from 2022, which is higher than what
most expect for 2023.
2024 Now for 2024, Shanghai will have that new
factory, taking the total run rate to 2 million, but it won't be ramped to that level from
the start of the year, so we need to scale it back. Although the rumors are it is meant
to hit that rate, this model is based on how I think the factories will ramp. I would imagine
at the start it would be around 20,000 a month, so I am going to average 35,000 a month for
the whole year, taking it to 420,000 for this new fab. We are not going to add any more
growth from the other factories in Shanghai for the year, giving a total of 1.77 million.
Texas would have already been at a run rate of 500,000 at the start of 2024, I would expect
that to have reached 750,000 by the end of the year, so if we split the difference it's
625,000, and then 500,000 for the Cybertruck, giving us 1.15 million. For Berlin we will
also take 625,000 the same rate as Texas, except no Cybertruck. Then the new location
should hit volume production early in the year, and likely 500,000 run rate by the end
of the year. So I am happy with around 300,000 units.
And if this company is going to keep growing, then we need another factory too. This gives
us almost 4.7 million vehicles produced for 2024. It is also 71% growth over 2023. I mean
at this stage, I think as Tesla shareholders we have all done very well for ourselves.
But wait there is more.
2025 By 2025, we will just cap Fremont now at 750,000.
We know Shanghai will be up at 2 million. Texas will continue to expand, with more buildings
too, there could even be a Model 3 fab there at this stage, or Robotaxi factory, same for
Berlin. One of the new locations should hit one million a year run rate by the end of
the year, so we will give it 750,00 total for the year, and the other new location would
be expanding also. But in 2025, I am going to say that Tesla started 2 new locations.
This generates just a 40% growth rate, compared to 2024, thats a drop from about 70% annual
growth to 40%. But partly this is due to the old fabs, Shanghai and Fremont maxing out
at an early stage. But we are building 2 new locations in 2025 to compensate.
2026 Now for 2026, I am going to finally increase
the capacity for Fremont slightly, and also I think Shanghai would have been able to make
some advances too, likely some further expansion, perhaps some retrofitting, remember there
are 3 factories there. Now as we built 2 new locations in 2025, we have managed to maintain
a 40% growth rate even for 2026, in fact even one percent more growth than 2025 saw. Also
we are adding a new factory, and saying in it's first year it managed 100,000. Perhaps
these first year numbers feel low, but some may be built at the start of the year, some
in the middle and some at the end, so most of the time they don't always have a full
years growth. We are are now at 9 million deliveries, just about half way to our target,
and about half way through our timeline too.
2027 I think Texas has will have a capacity about
2 million, I think Elon may have said something about Texas being particularly big. He said
they plan on spending 5 times as much on CAPEX there still for expansion, but not all of
it may be for vehicles. It is however their flagship product, so we should expect things
to be big there. In fact I wouldn't be too surprised if it's higher than that, given
how popular the Cybertruck will be. Although I suppose they will likely also produce them
in north east US too.
Hopefully Germany sorts their energy crisis out within time, and Tesla expand there, as
that was intended to be the major European hub. So we will keep expanding that site too.
Some of the newer factories should be ramping up faster too by that stage, I mean 5 years
more of R & D and experience from Tesla. Look what they achieved in the last 5 years.
And now we are seeing a drop in growth, down to 30%. Despite 2027 still being the largest
increase in vehicle production out of any other year. It's just the overall run rate
becomes so high that it's starts to get difficult to make large percentage increases.
2028 For 2028 I am going to have Texas hit its
capacity at 2.5 million. I mean who knows, I might be off by a bit, and it could be 5
million on that site for all we know. Berlin can max out at 2 million too. I ramped up
the other factories at a slightly faster pace too. But it didn't have a huge impact, as
we only achieved 20% growth. And in fact this would be the first year that growth was actually
lower in units, due to the other factories reaching capacities, or getting closer to
their capacities.
2029 For 2029, I expanded Shanghai slightly, as
there is likely plenty of reason for more expansion there. I mean what if there was
a compact built there, with a new factory that was a million additional units on its
own? We are down to 17% growth.
2030 Then in 2030, we have no new factories as
we are already at 12, but there are a lot of factories that still have a lot of expansion
remaining, and that gave us 20% growth, which was enough to break past 20 million unit run
rate.
EXPANDED However, not all the factories are ramped
at this stage. There is still some growth remaining. Once the factories are ramped it
would add a further 13% more growth, taking us to 22.75 million run rate, with 12 factories
at around the capacities we would expect or Elon has suggested.
ANALYSIS This was brilliant, I actually didn't manipulate
any of these figures at all in order to reach 20 million, which is an incredible sign. In
other words, Elon's projections map entirely. About one new location a year with a capacity
of 1.5 to 2 million, and we will hit 20 million a year run rate in 2030. This feels really
achievable. In other words about 13 times more deliveries than this year, which is huge,
think what it could do to the stock price, and that's just vehicles.
SUMMARY I assume that most of you are like me, and
would like to know the revenue and profit that these factories would be generating each
year too, so I probably don't even need ask you, and by the time you watched this I'm
already working on it. Can't wait to find out.