Hello, I’m Margaret MacMillan.
Part of being a leader is you sometimes have to take awkward decisions, difficult decisions,
and you sometimes have to take risks. If you avoid difficult decisions, sometimes they
come back to haunt you.
Chapter three. Risk Taking, calculating the odds.
Not easy and very difficult and you may be facing terrible consequences but sometimes
those decisions have to be made. And sometimes you have to take such risks.
>> NIXON: I agree. The communists are rats.
>> MARGARET: Richard Nixon is now today remembered as Tricky Dick. He's remembered as the man
who had the Watergate scandal attached to his name, the man who was forced out of office
because it turned out he was trying to use the powers of the presidency to cover up dirty
tricks and he had to resign.
But I think he should also be remembered for a considerable act of statesmanship and that
was the opening to China. China and the United States had had virtually no relationship since
1949. This was not good for either country and was certainly not good for the stability
of the world.
Now this is not an easy thing to do because there were strong anti-Chinese-Communist feeling
in the United States. And Richard Nixon was taking considerable political risk.
Richard Nixon was elected in the fall of 1968, took office in 1969 and immediately began
to put out feelers to the Chinese Communists. Now this wasn't easy because United States
and China had no direct relationship, and so what he did is he operated through countries
which already had a relationship with China.
And so a letter would be sent to Pakistan, to Beijing, it would be sent from Pakistan
to Washington – the Pakistan ambassador in Washington would take it to the White House
and then another reply would be sent back through the same route.
And gradually the rhetoric began to get lower. But Nixon also took a risk in actually flying
to China. He didn't know when he got on his airplane in Washington whether or not he would
meet Chairman Mao; it hadn't been confirmed.
If Nixon had been humiliated in China, by for example a refusal of Chairman Mao to meet
him, he would have looked foolish and he would have looked weak, and that would have been
very bad for him politically in the United States, and it would have been very bad
with American allies.
When the plane landed in Beijing, and waiting for him at the bottom was Zhou Enlai, the
Chinese prime minister and foreign minister. And Nixon came down, you can see it in the
photographs, with his hand outstretched and shook hands very publicly and very obviously
with Zhou Enlai and this was very deliberately done to make up for a handshake that never
took place in 1954.
In 1954, Zhou Enlai and the then U.S secretary of state, John Foster Dulles, had met at Geneva
and John Foster Dulles had walked straight by Zhou Enlai who had his hand outstretched
and refused to shake his hand. And so you can see in the pictures, Nixon is determined
to make up for that slight.
After the handshake with Zhou Enlai Nixon was taken in a motorcade through Beijing and
they settled into their villa, and they were still wondering about whether or not they
would see Mao.
And Mao suddenly sent word to Zhou Enlai who was with Nixon saying, invite Nixon to come
and have tea with me. And so Nixon and Henry Kissinger, his national security advisor and
a couple of others jumped into a Chinese limousine and sped off, much to the consternation of
the American secret servicemen who saw their president disappearing without any of them
there to protect him.
Off they went, they had tea with Mao. They talked about this and that – what was important
is that it took place and there were pictures of it and it was back on American news.
And the upshot of normal relations between China and the United States was increased cultural
exchanges and importantly, increased trade and investment.
On that trip, the Chinese really laid themselves out to welcome the Americans, and the Americans
laid themselves out to be good guests and so there were banquets in the great hall of
the people where they toasted each other and they toasted each other's countries and the
Chinese military bands had carefully learned American music. So they played things like
the Stars and Stripes Forever and I believe they played
How much is that Doggy in the Window?
They really were trying to appeal to the Americans.
Nixon took an entourage with him, he took of course, he took his wife, Pat Nixon, who
was advised interestingly enough not to wear red because red traditionally in China has
been the colour that prostitutes wore, and she wisely defied that advice which came from
the old China hands and wore a beautiful bright red coat, and she looked terrifically. She
got off the airplane and immediately you see Pat Nixon in her wonderful red coat.
>> JUSTIN TRUDEAU: This is the best part of my job.
>> MARGARET: But I think if you are looking at present day leaders, I think Justin Trudeau
took a risk in the last election in Canada.
>> JUSTIN TRUDEAU: Our plan features three years of historic involvement.
>> MARGARET: When he announced that the liberal platform included deficit spending on infrastructure.
>> TOM MULCAIR: I’m tired of other watching governments put that debt on the backs of
future generations.
>> STEPHEN HARPER: A modest deficit. And only for three years.
>> MARGARET: Both other parties were very much pushing a line of we will balance the
budget; there will be no debt; there will be no deficit spending. And a lot of people
at the time said this is reckless: the Canadian taxpayer won't go for it.
>> JUSTIN TRUDEAU: That growth will eliminate…
>> MARGARET: A lot of the advice to Trudeau was don't talk about a deficit. The public
doesn't like it.
>> ROSEMARY BARTON: Once you open up this can of worms…
>> MARGARET: The general view in the media was you know, they'd lost it.
>> REPORTER: Trudeau is betting that…
>> MARGARET: They'd lost their sense and they'd lost the election.
>> REPORTER: They’ll soon find out if their gamble pays off.
>> MARGARET: And you know, I think Canadians understand that we do sometimes go into debt
to do something we see as important. I mean, most of us have had mortgages if we've bought
property, and that's deficit spending.
But it was a calculated risk.I don't think it was a foolish risk.
>> JUSTIN TRUDEAU: I, Justin PJ Trudeau do swear…
>> MARGARET: Well, look, as far as the election is concerned, it seems to have paid off.
I think those who take risks are in a sense gamblers, but there are clever gamblers and
stupid gamblers. But you know, If you think of it, politicians in democratic societies
are all risk-takers. You wouldn't go into that profession unless you were a bit of a gambler.
You live a life full of risk if you are politician.
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