We begin a discussion with experts from around the world.
China's economy shank for the first time since 1992 in the first quarter of 2020,... as the
coronavirus outbreak paralyzed production and spending in the epicenter of the outbreak,...
and the rest of the world. The country is trying to restart its $14 trillion
dollar economy,... by putting factories back online and resuming business activities, but
with the rest of the world grappling with the pandemic, it's unclear whether the China
will recover from the shock quickly. To discuss the prospects and how the contraction
of the world's second largest economy will affect the rest of the globe, we have joining
us today, Dr. Larry Samuelson, Professor of Economics at Yale University and Dr. Graham
Ong-Webb who joins us from Singapore's Nanyang University
To Dr. Larry: China's GDP fell 6.8% in January-March year-on-year larger than the 6.5% decline
forecast by analysts. Do you think this is as bad as it gets for China or could it get
worse? And how will this affect the world economy?
To Dr. Ong-Webb: With almost 20% of China's economy backed by exports, how much of an
impact will a prolonged pandemic have on Chinese businesses and workers?
To Dr. Larry: What unique challenges does China face as a planned economy?
To Dr. Ong-Webb: In recent weeks, the Chinese government has rolled out tariff reductions
that could soothe the pain from rising prices and rate cuts that could fuel more bank lending
but we're waiting for a huge fiscal stimulus. What do you think will be in
that package and how will it be different from 2008?
To Dr. Larry: During the previous global financial crisis, China spent close to $600bn on stimulus.
Does it have the capacity or appetite to do that now, despite the massive debt risk?
To Dr. Ong-Webb: China's GDP growth has been slowing in recent years and China’s labor
market was already showing signs of strain, with officials anticipating the unemployment
rate to rise. What are the fundamental challenges it is struggling with and will they deepen
this crisis?
To both: Will
China manage
to fully recover
and enjoy the rate of growth it
was seeing prior to the pandemic?
That's all we
have time for today. Thank you for joining us Dr. Larry Samuelson in Connecticut
and Dr. Graham Ong-Webb
in Singapore.