For the pbs, I'm Laura
barron-lopez.
Geoff: For more on how the 2024
Republican field is shaping up,
we turn to our politics Monday
team.
That's Amy Walter of the cook
political report, with Amy
Walter, and Tamara Keith of NPR.
Hello, hello.
Let's start our conversation
about the 2024 raise with more
about the politician says he
will not get into this, new
Hampshire governor Chris sununu.
He wrote an op-ed which I will
read.
He says, if trump is the
nominee Republicans will lose
again as we did in 2018, 2020,
and 2022.
This is indisputable and I'm not
willing to let it happen without
a fight.
He argues he will have more
power and influence as a
kingmaker in New Hampshire.
Is he right about that?
Amy: I do not think so.
I think there is about 10% to
15% of the Republican electorate
interested in a non-trump -- not
just a non-trump candidate, but
an anti-Trump candidate.
They appeal to those voters,
very narrow.
For the rest of Republican
voters, they are looking for
maybe an alternative, maybe 50%
to 60% looking for an
alternative.
.
To Donald Trump they are not
looking for an anti-Trump.
That is why governor sununu had
a narrow lane.
His ability in New Hampshire, I
would put a question mark next
to in terms of being a
kingmaker.
In 2022, the candidates he
endorsed went on to lose two
candidates who filled much more
of that trumpy category.
Geoff: I read analysis this
morning that there are basically
three lanes to pick up on what
Amy is talking about.
The trump lane, Ron Desantis
lane, and everybody else lane.
Does it mean for this race to
have three more candidates jump
in this week?
Tamara: One thing that is clear
is that Donald Trump not clear
the race -- ranks.
He has a lot of people who are
looking for a possibility of
being the anti-trap or
alternative to trump, or the
candidate who can the president
for eight years and not just
four years.
And they are all still feeling
out exactly how much they draw
that contrast.
They are all being so careful
about it.
Chris Christie, in theory, is
careful and might break some
glass.
But the others are being so
careful.
As Amy says, you can't be
anti-Trump when he is still this
outsized figure in the party,
even as he faces -- there was
the insurrection and as he faces
various investigations.
The drama and the chaos that
many voters have some reluctance
about.
It is still him versus the rest
of the field, which is what it
ended up being in 2015, 2016.
Geoff: Listening to Nikki Haley
talking about how we have to
leave behind that baggage, Ron
Desantis talking about
dispensing with the culture of
losing.
We're talking about Donald Trump
but they are not naming.
Is that enough?
Tamara: We are going to find out
soon enough.
I think they are trying to make
the case that hey, look, you can
have all of the trumpism that
you love, but it can be more
effective, either effective in
bringing people into the party,
or with Ron Desantis, I will be
a culture warrior who is more
effective than Donald Trump.
On some of the things like
critical race theory, other
issues that he has taken on in
Florida.
The thing about -- we all know
about politics, you can come up
with a great idea and a test
tube about what a campaign
should be and what the voters
want to hear.
If they don't really think it is
the right message, it is not
really going anywhere.
It is pretty clear, there is
some fatigue with Donald Trump
from voters.
Does not mean they don't like
him anymore.
But is the fatigue about may the
chaos, the divisions, the things
he helped to sew, if they can
keep that needle threaded, they
might be able to convince voters
who like Donald Trump to pick
somebody else as the nominee.
Geoff: Looking ahead, the
Republican national committee
have announced the first 2024
Republican presidential primary
debate.
They have also outlined the
qualifying criteria.
Candidates have to register at
least 1% in three national
polls.
They also need at least 40,000
donors with at least 200 donors
per state in 20 plus states.
Candidates also have to pledge,
agreement to support the
eventual party nominee.
Dust Donald Trump participate --
does Donald Trump participate?
>> And do some only Chris
Christie who says he would not
support Donald Trump as
president, does he sign on to
the pledge?
This pledge is bigger than just
that.
It also includes agreements to
share data and voter file
information with the RNC.
There is kind of a lot at stake
for these candidates in making
that decision.
As it was in the past, will
Donald Trump show up?
This is a question that is
frequently asked and he loves
having asked.
And he did not show up this
weekend in Iowa.
Will that affect them
negatively?
Or does it make him look like
the big guy who does not need to
show up?
If he appears on a stage with a
minibus full of other
candidates, which is what we are
headed towards, does that make
him look small when he is still
-- many people in the Republican
party call him the president of
the United States, not the
former president.
Does appearing on a debate stage
bust his mystique of being a
winner?
And is he willing to do that?
Geoff: These rules are more
stringent than what Democrats
were required of their
candidates back in 2020.
What is the RNC trying to
achieve?
Amy: I think they would like to
have as narrow of a stage as
possible, in order to make it an
interesting debate.
You want to have the people on
stage who have a reasonable
chance of breaking through.
The other thing we know about
candidates who today are polling
in low numbers, some of those
candidates break through that we
did not expect.
I don't think Pete buttigieg
early on was expected to do as
well as he did.
Or some of the other candidates
in the past two started off at a
low number.
I think Tim is right.
It is not so much can they hit
the thresholds, most of these
candidates are hitting 1% in the
national polls.
They know how to get these
donors.
The question will be, does
Donald Trump show up?
That is thing.
Geoff: Can we draw on your white
house report -- white house
reporting?
?
What is the word from the Biden
white house?
What argument do they intend to
make?
Tamara: They are making an
argument that the president made
in the oval office address on
Friday night, which is that here
is a president who can get a big
bipartisan deals done, that
America needs to be less divided
and he is a messenger of that
less divided America.
That same speech also included
him going after -- he did not
use Maga Republicans, but he
meant it, going after
Republicans and policies he
disagrees with.
Saying, these are not the
Republicans I can work with that
I used to work with that I knew
from the senate.
Notably, his campaign, don't
expect to see big campaign
rallies or big events anytime
soon.
He is the president of the
United States, and his campaign
is very few people, being
scaffolded by the democratic
national committee.
They are not acting like they
have a primary, because they are
not quite to have debates.
Geoff: Tamara Keith and Amy
Walter, thank you both.
♪♪