THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF
VENEZUELA RAGES ON FOLLOWING
OPPOSITION LEADER JUAN GUAIDO
CONTROL FOR, CONTINUED CALL FOR
FROM TESTS IN THE STREETS OF CARACAS TO HELP OVER THROW
MADURO.
BOTH CLAIM TO BE THE RIGHTFUL
LEADER, IT IS BOTH A POLITICAL
AND HUMANITARIAN CRISIS THAT HAS
BEEN PLAYING OUT OVER SEVERAL
YEARS NOW WITH MANY VENEZUELANS
FLEEING THE HOMELAND FOR PLACES
LIKE FLORIDA IN SEARCH FOR
SAFETY AND STABILITY.
WITH SOUTH FLORIDA'S STRONG TIES
TO LATIN AMERICA, WHAT PROBLEMS
COULD THE UNNEST IN VENEZUELA
POSE FOR POLITICS AND BUSINESS
HERE?
JOINING ME NOW TO HELP BREAK IT
ALL DOWN AND THE LATEST FORCE IN
VENEZUELA IS RICHARD TAPIA,
PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT
MIAMI-DADE COLLEGE, PROFESSOR
GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US.
THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS LATEST
SITUATION.
WE REALLY SAW THE UNREST BREAK
OUT, VIOLENCE UNREST IN CARACAS
THIS TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK, WE
HAVE GUAIDO TRYING TO GET HIS
SUPPORTERS TO COME OUT AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THROW MADURO.
WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT HAPPEN YET
SO KIND OF LAY THE GROUND FOR
WHAT IS GOING ON HERE.
WELL, WHAT IS TAKING PLACE
HERE IS THAT GUAIDO DECIDED TO
DO A FINAL PUSH TO TRY TO
RESTEER THE CONSTITUTIONAL
PROCESS OF HAVING THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT BECOME THE
PRESIDENT WHO IS NOW ACCEPTED
AND LEGITIMIZED BY THE LIMA
GROUP SWAY GROUP OF 12 COUNTRIES
WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
AMERICAN STATES THAT RECOGNIZES
GUAIDO FOR LEGITIMATE PRESIDENT,
IN THE CASE OF MADURO, MADURO
BELIEVES HE IS LEGITIMATE
PRESIDENT BECAUSE HE DECIDED TO
BASICALLY HOLD ELECTIONS THAT
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DOES
NOT RECOGNIZE AS LEGITIMATE,
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.
IN WHICH HE WON THE OUTCOME OF
THAT ELECTION.
SO NOW WHAT YOU HAVE ARE TWO HEADS OF STATE IN VENEZUELA, ONE
GUAIDO THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, SUPPORTED BY
THE GROUP OF 12 WHICH IS THE
LIMA GROUP AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE UNITED STATES AND THE
EUROPEAN UNION AND THEN YOU HAVE
NICOLAS MADURO WHO IS RECOGNIZED
BY RUSSIA, CHINA, AND CUBA, NOW
THE QUESTION IS HOW DID WE GET
TO THIS POINT?
WELL WE HAVE TWO HEADS OF STATE
AND IT GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO
, WHEN THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY, THE OPPOSITION WON
TWO-THIRDS OF THE SEATS IN THE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY.
IN AN ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON TO
POWER, YOU ARE GOING TO SEE WHAT
ENDED UP HAPPENING WAS THAT
PRESIDENT NICOLAS MADURO
BASICALLY SUSPENDED THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY, CREATED A NATIONAL
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY IN WHICH HE
POT TO BASICALLY BEGIN TO
APPOINT THE MEMBERS OF THAT
ASSEMBLY AND THEN CALL FOR ELECTIONS TO ELECT THOSE
MEMBERS.
THOUSAND MANY OBSERVERS HAVE
CALLED THIS TO BE VERY
UNCONSTITUTIONAL.
FIRST OF ALL, THE REASON HE WAS
ABLE TO CREATE A NATIONAL
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY IS BECAUSE
HE VACATED MANY OF THE MEMBERS
OF THE SUPREME COURT AND THEN
APPOINTED NEW MEMBERS OF THE
SUPREME COURT.
THAT LATER LEGITIMATIZED HIS
MOVE TO PUSH FOR A NATIONAL
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY WHICH IS
VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE CONGRESS
-- HE ALSO CALLED FOR A
REFERENDUM TO ELECT MEMBERS TO
THE NATIONAL CONSTITUENT
ASSEMBLY WHICH WAS ALSO
UNCONSTITUTIONAL TO CALL FOR
THIS YOU NEED A REFERENDUM,
BEFORE YOU CALL FOR THIS,
QUESTION IS ACTUALLY WHAT
HAPPENED HUGO CHAVEZ DID IN 1999.
AND CONSTITUENT --
THE LACK OF STABILITY AND IN
THE MEAN A TIME WE SEE THIS ONCE
VERY OIL RICH COUNTRY SINKING
INTO DESPAIR AND WE’VE ALL SEEN THE
PICTURES ON TELEVISION OF PEOPLE
LITERALLY GOING TO THE TRASH
LOOKING FOR FOOD, WE HAVE SEEN
THE SHELVES AT THE GROCERY
STORES EMPTY.
PEOPLE DON'T HAVE BASIC
MEDICATION, SO THIS IS A HUGE
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, IS IT NOT?
ABSOLUTELY, 4 MILLION
REFUGEES HAVE NOW LEFT
VENEZUELA, IT IS ONE OF THE
LARGEST REFUGEE POPULATIONS IN THE
WORLD, COMPARABLE TO THAT OF
SYRIA, THE LARGEST IN THE
AMERICAN
CONTINENT, 3 MILLION OF THEM IN
COLUMBIA, 300,000 SEEKING ASYLUM
IN THE UNITED STATES TWO THIRDS
OF THEM IN SOUTH FLORIDA ALONE
AND THEY DON'T HAVE TEMPORARY
PROTECTED STATUS BY THE
ADMINISTRATION.
SO WHAT YOU BEGIN TO SEE IS THAT
MANY, MANY OF THESE INDIVIDUALS
ARE GOING TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
AN AREA WITHIN THE LAW WHERE
THEY COME VISITING AS TOURISTS
AND SEEK ASYLUM BUT NOT GIVEN
PROTECTIVE STATUS AND IN DANGER
OF BEING UNDOCUMENTED SO THIS
BECOMES A MAJOR PROBLEM,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECONOMY
CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE IN
VENEZUELA.
HYPERINFLATION ACCORDING TO THE
IMF IS GOING TO REACH
PROBABLY 10 MILLION PERCENT,
IN THE UNITED
STATES ININFLATION IS TWO TO
THREE PERCENT,
SO 10 MILLION PERCENT MEANS THE
COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF THE ECONOMY
AND THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA
CONTINUES TO PRINT MONEY IN
ORDER TO TRY TO PAY OFF SOME OF
ITS DEBT.
WHAT IS HAPPENING THEY SPENT SO
MUCH MONEY TO MAINTAIN MANY
SOCIAL PROGRAMS THAT ARE NOW
BASICALLY UNSUSTAINABLE BECAUSE
OF THE PRICE OF OIL HAVE DROPPED
FROM $100 A BARREL TO $3 A
BARREL IN 2016, NOW IT IS BACK
UP TO $50, BUT PRODUCTION
CONTINUES TO DROP BECAUSE THEY
HAVE MISMANAGED THE MAIN
PRODUCTION AND THE MAIN COMPANY
OF OLD WHICH IS THE DFA WITHIN
VENEZUELA SO IT IS A COMPLETE
COLLAPSE OF THE ECONOMY, IT IS A
CATASTROPHE.
GIVE US SOME SENSE OF HOW --
OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT.
THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT
TYPES OF SCENARIOS, BUT IT SEEMS
LIKE TO GET BACK TO THE WAY THEY
WERE WOULD BE A REALLY LONG
HAUL, WOULD IT NOT?
CORRECT.
THERE ARE THREE POSSIBILITIES OF
WHAT COULD TAKE PLACE.
NOW, GUAIDO MOBILE HISSED HOPING
THAT THE MILITARY UNDER THE
LEADERSHIP OF THE DEFENSE
MINISTER PADLY KNOW WOULD SWITCH
SIDES AND COME TO HIS AID AT
WHICH CASE HE TAKES THE
PRESIDENTIAL PALACE, IT IS
LEGITIMATIZED BY THE CHIEF
JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT AND
HE BEGINS TO RECEIVE
INTERNATIONAL AID.
FIRST OF ALL THEY HAVE TO
REBUILD THE CENTRAL BANK, THE
DOLLARS IN THE CENTRAL BANK HAVE
BEEN LOOTED BY THE REGIME, THIS
HAS BECOME A PLUTOCRACY WHERE
THEY HAVE LITERALLY STOLEN THE
MONEY FROM THE CENTRAL BANK
USING A, AN EXCHANGE RATE ONLY
AVAILABLE TO THE HEAD OF THE
REGIME, TO THE CHIEF OF THE
REGIME, TO THE GENERALS, TO
LET'S SAY THE HEAD OF THE
PRIVATE GUARD, THE PRESIDENTIAL
GUARD.
PEOPLE WHO STATE YOUR NAME
AND SUPPORT MADURO?
CORRECT.
THAT STATE YOUR NAME AND SUPPORT
MADURO GET AN EXCHANGE OF LET'S
SAY TO ONE ON THE CURRENCY
WHERE EVERYBODY ELSE THEIR MONEY
HAS BECOME COMPLETELY WORTHLESS.
NOW THAT HAS CAUSED THE CENTRAL
BANK TO BE COMPLETELY DEPLETED
OF ALL DOLLARS.
SO NOW YOU HAVE TO EXTEND LINES
OF CREDIT, YOU HAVE TO -- IF
GUAIDO TRANSITION TAKES PLACE,
YOU HAVE TO REBUILD THE CENTRAL
BANK, YOU HAVE TO EXTEND LINES
OF CREDIT TO BE ABLE TO BAIL OUT
NOT JUST THE VENEZUELAN CENTRAL
BANK, BUT JUST TO BEGIN TO DO A
CURRENCY EXCHANGE AND CREATE A
NEW CURRENCY WITHIN VENEZUELA,
YOU HAVE TO BASICALLY OPEN IT UP
TO IMPORTS BECAUSE PART OF THE
PROBLEM IN VENEZUELA IS THAT
THEY DON'T ALLOW IMPORTS, THEY
DON'T EVEN ALLOW HUMANITARIAN
AID TO BASICALLY ASSIST THE
PEOPLE THAT ARE STALK TO DEATH
IN VENEZUELA.
WE THOUGHT THERE WAS
HUMANITARIAN AID THAT WAS A
RIGHT THERE ON THE BORDER
BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND COLUMBIA
AND THEY WERE NOT LETTING IT IN
BY THE UNITED STATES.
CORRECT AND THEY WERE
EVEN SEIZING THE SHIPS AND
DESTROYING THE SHIPMENTS OF
HUMANITARIAN AID TO HELP FEED
THE PEOPLE OF VENEZUELA.
SO CONTINUE -- A COMPLETE
RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMY OF
VENEZUELA IS GOING TO NEED TO
TAKE POLICE UNDER GUAIDO IF
GUAIDO COMES TO POWER.
NOW THERE IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
THAT GUAIDO DOES NOT COME TO
POWER, MADURO CAN HOLD ON
BECAUSE HE HAS SUPPORT BY 20,000
CUBAN TROOPS THAT ARE PRESENT,
RUSSIA ALSO SENT TROOPS, THE
NUMBER OF TROOPS ARE UNKNOWN AT
THE MOMENT BY THE PENTAGON ON
HOW MANY RUSSIANS HAVE ARRIVED
TO BASICALLY SUPPORT MADURO.
ARE THESE RUSSIAN REGULAR FORCES
IRREGULAR FORCES LIKE WE SAW IN
SYRIA?
WE ALSO DON'T KNOW
EXTENT TO WHICH THE CHINESE HAVE
PROVIDED SUPPORT.
AND THE QUESTION IS, WHY WOULD
THE RUSSIANS AND THE CHINESE AND
THE CUBANS PROVIDE SUCH SUPPORT
IS BECAUSE VENEZUELA OWES LARGE
AMOUNTS OF MONEY TO RUSSIA AND
TO CHINA AND OUT OF THE
$100 BILLION OF THE TOTAL DEBT
OF VENEZUELA OVER HALF OF THAT
IS OWED TO RUSSIA AND TO CHINA.
ABOUT 20 BILLION WORTH OF
COLLATERALIZED DEBT TO THE
RUSSIANS IN WHICH AN EXCHANGE
THE RUSSIANS HAVE CONTROL OF
SOME OF THEIR OIL FIELDS, HALF
OF CITGO, ANOTHER $20 BILLION
WORTH OF INVESTMENTS THAT
RUSSIANS DON'T WANT TO LOSE, THE
CHINESE HAVE ANOTHER 9 BILLION
THAT THEY DON'T WANT TO LOSE.
SO FOR THOSE -- FOR THOSE
COUNTRIES TO BEGIN TO SWITCH
OVER TO GUAIDO, THEY HAVE TO BE
GUARANTEED THEIR INVESTMENTS,
OTHER BOYS, THAT IS GONE, THAT
IS NOT A REAL POSSIBILITY OF
THEM SWITCHING OVER TO GUAIDO.
TALK TOO ABOUT POSSIBLE
AMERICAN MILITARY INTERVENTION.
WE ACTUALLY HEARD --
CORRECT.
JOHN BOLTON TALK ABOUT THAT
PUBLICLY, EVEN SENATOR RICK
SCOTT TALKED ABOUT SUPPORTING
SOME SORT OF U.S. MILITARY
INTERVENTION.
WHAT WOULD THAT LOOK LIKE?
WHAT THAT WOULD LOOK LIKE
ACCORDING TO THE BROOK INSTITUTE
AND LOOKING AT THE PENTAGON THAT
WOULD BASICALLY, BRING STABILITY
A COUNTRY OF ABOUT 39 TO 40
MILLION PEOPLE AND TALKING
ABOUT , 150,000 TROOPS.
BEING PRESENT IN VENEZUELA,
WHETHER THEY BE AMERICAN TROOPS,
BRAZILIAN, COLOMBIAN OR
COALITION, WITH THE LIMA GROUP
GOING IN TO RESTORE ORDER.
YOU ALSO HAVE TO TAKE INTO
CONSIDERATION THAT MADURO, THOSE
CUBAN TROOPS HAVE FORMER MEMBERS
--
RUSSIAN TROOPS AS WELL.
RUSSIAN TROOPS PRESENT AS
WELL AND YOU ALSO HAVE TROOPS OF
-- IRREGULAR FORCES THAT ARE
LOYAL TO MADURO, AND YOU MAY END
UP HAVING A LOW INTENSITY
CONFLICT WITH AMERICAN FORCES OR
COALITION FORCES OVER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
SO THAT IS A REAL POSSIBILITY
THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT IF THE
UNITED STATES DECIDES TO TAKE
THE MILITARY ROUTE.
NOW RIGHT NOW, WHAT YOU HAVE
IS A GAME OF CHICKEN BETWEEN THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND THE
RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND WHETHER
OR NOT THEY REALLY BELIEVE THAT
THE AMERICANS ARE GOING TO
COMMIT GROUND TROOPS OR COMMIT A
MILITARY INTERVENTION.
PART OF WHAT YOU ARE BEGINNING
TO SEE WITHIN VENEZUELA THAT YOU
SEE THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE POKING
THEIR FINGER AT THE EYE OF THE
AMERICANS IS KIND OF TRYING TO
CALL THE BLUFF OF THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION.
ARE YOU REALLY WILLING TO COMMIT
, TROOPS INTO VENEZUELA
AND OVER EXTEND YOURSELF WHEN
YOU HAVE ISSUES IN LIBYA AND
IRAQ, IN AFGHANISTAN, CAN
AMERICA RISK GETTING INVOLVED IN
ANOTHER PROTRACTED CONFLICT OVER
A LONG PERIOD OF TIME?
AND HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE,
FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR
SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
CORRECT.
PROFESSOR, QUICKLY WE ARE
RUNNING OUT OF TIME WHAT ARE
YOUR STUDENTS SAYING?
I KNOW YOU HAVE PLENTY OF
STUDENTS IN YOUR CLASS FROM
VENEZUELA.
ABSOLUTELY WE HAVE STUDENTS
THAT ARE VERY INTRIGUED AND EVEN
WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
COMPARATIVE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT
THEY SEE A LOT OF THE PARALLELS
THAT ARE TAKING PLACE WITHIN
LATIN AMERICA WITHIN VENEZUELA
AND THEY BEGIN TO ASK MANY
QUESTIONS ON WHAT ARE SOME
SCENARIOS FOR RECONSTRUCTION,
ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION, AFTER A
POST MADURO REGIME, WE ALSO HAVE
THE HONOR OF HAVING AMBASSADOR
CARLOS VEK OWE COME TO OUR
CLASSROOM, THE APPOINTED
AMBASSADOR BY PRESIDENT GUAIDO
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
YES.
AND I HAVE HAD THE PLEASURE
OF BEING IN A FEW PANELS WITH
HIM AND HE BASICALLY TALKS ABOUT
HOW THIS TRANSITION WOULD LOOK
LIKE, HOW DO WE, DID WE GET TO
THIS POINT?
SO IT IS A VERY GOOD TIME FOR
STUDENTS TO BE INVOLVED IN
POLITICS BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT
TO TALK ABOUT.
MESSY SITUATION AND WE WILL
SEE HOW GUAIDO'S CALL FOR MORE
PROTESTS THIS WEEKEND AND WE
WILL WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS
PLAYS OUT.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ADVICE AND
EXPERTISE.