THAT’S MY RIFF FOR THIS EVENING.
BUT NOW WE’RE GOING TO A TOP
ENERGY EXPERT.
FORMER UNDERSECRETARY OF ENERGY
FOR SCIENCE IN THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION, PAUL DEBAR.
HE WILL TELL US WHAT BIDEN
SHOULD DO OR WILL DO OR MIGHT
NOT DO OR GOD KNOWS WHAT.
PAUL, WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.
APPRECIATE IT.
>> GREAT TO BE HERE AS ALWAYS.
LARRY: GIVE ME, SO BIDEN SAYS HE
WILL TAKE ALL THESE ACTIONS.
HE SAID THAT ON TUESDAY.
WHAT IS HE TALKING ABOUT?
>> SO THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING
AROUND IT APPEARS TO SOME OF THE
OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD
THAT PRODUCE NATURAL GAS AN HAVE
BEEN SAYING, WELL IF THE
RUSSIANS STOP SHIPPING NATURAL
GAS TO EUROPE WHICH THEY’RE EVEN
MORE KIND OF ADDICTED TO THAN
EVER BEFORE BECAUSE THEY PRODUCE
THEIR OWN DOMESTIC PRODUCTION IN
EUROPE, THEY HAVE BEEN ASKING
THE QATARIS FOR EXAMPLE, TO
STAND UP RATHER THAN GOING TO
THE U.S. NATURAL GAS YOU KNOW,
COMPANIES TO SAY --
LARRY: REALLY?
>> REALLY U.S. DOMESTIC INDUSTRY
SHOULD STAND UP.
LARRY: WE’RE THE GREATEST, MOST
EFFICIENT, LOW COST PRODUCER.
WE ARE.
>> NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION COSTS
IN U.S. ARE THE LOWEST IN THE
WORLD.
BECAUSE OF ALL THE APPROVALS
OCCURRED IN 2017, 18, 19.
JUST ALL THOSE CONSTRUCTION
PROJECTS WERE APPROVED WHEN I
WERE THERE HAVE COME ON LINE.
AS A RESULT OF THOSE APPROVALS,
THOSE INFRASTRUCTURE APPROVALS
WE JUST LAST MONTH HIT NUMBER
ONE EXPORTER.
BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT
SLOWING THAT DOWN OR EVEN
TALKING ABOUT REASSESSING WHAT
HAD BEEN APPROVED.
LARRY: THEY BEING BIDEN?
IS IT FERC WHO DOES THAT?
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY
COMMISSION AND D.O.E.
LARRY: SLOWING IT DOWN RIGHT
NOW.
>> MAYBE EVEN REASSESSING ONES
THAT HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY
APPROVED.
LARRY: THAT IS THE DUMBEST THING
IMAGINABLE.
>> YEAH.
LARRY: THINK ABOUT THIS LOGIC
THE WAY WE THOUGHT THROUGH THIS.
THE PRESIDENT SAYS THERE WILL BE
WAR IN ONE DAY, TWO DAYS, THREE
DAYS, I DON’T KNOW WHAT HE KNOWS
BUT HE SAYS THAT BUT NOW HIS
AGENCIES ARE SAYING LET’S HOLD
BACK ON LNG PRODUCTION AND
EXPORTS?
>> THEY’RE CLEARLY SLOW WALKING.
THEY’RE TALKING ABOUT
REASSESSING ALREADY APPROVED
PROJECTS.
LARRY: I’M TOLD VIA THE
GRAPEVINE, I CAN’T CONFIRM THIS
THERE IS SOME AMERICAN OFFICIALS
AGAIN IN SAUDI ARABIA ASKING OR
BEGGING THEM TO PRODUCE MORE AS
WE GO TOWARDS $100 A BARREL, THE
SAUDIS SAY NO.
YEAH.
>> SO WHEN YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT
SAUDI ARABIA, THAT IS ABOUT
CRUDE, RIGHT, AND AS WE’VE
TALKED ABOUT BEFORE YOU KNOW, A
FEW YEARS AGO, 2019 WE WERE
PRODUCING TWO MILLION BARRELS A
DAY MORE THAN WE ARE RIGHT NOW.
LARRY: 13 MILLION VERSUS
11 MILLION.
>> WE USED TO BE THE SWING
PRODUCER.
LARRY: YEP.
>> AND WHEN WE PUT SANCTIONS ON
IRAN AND VENEZUELA, WHEN WE HAD
PROBLEMS WITH THEM WE WERE ABLE
TO, WITH YOUR OFFICE, WITH
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, NATIONAL
SECURITY COUNCIL, EVALUATE THE
EXACT IMPACT AND HOW THE U.S.
PRODUCTION WOULD COME ON LINE TO
FILL THE GAP WHEN WE PUT
SANCTIONS ON THEM.
THAT WAS BECAUSE WE WERE THE
SWING PRODUCER AND THAT IF WE
WERE ABLE TO SANCTION THEM WE
KNEW THAT AMERICAN PRODUCTION
WOULD FILL THE GAP.
LARRY: SO THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT
WE SHOULD DO NOW, NO?
>> YEAH.
I MEAN LIKE --
LARRY: I KNOW.
I REMEMBER THAT FIRE DRILL VERY
WELL.
THIS IS THE MOMENT TO DO THAT.
>> YEAH.
LARRY: BUT WHAT IS HE -- WILL
HE?
I MEAN I KNOW -- THERE IS A
JIHAD AGAINST OUR OIL COMPANIES,
WE KNOW THAT.
WILL HE LET GO OF THAT, WILL HE
STOP THAT, LET GO OF THE SPIGOTS
OR WHICH HAVE MISCHIEVOUS
STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVES OR
OIL PRICE CONTROLS OR WHAT ELSE
DO THE GUYS -- LEFTIES WANT
ANTITRUST ACTIONS BECAUSE THERE
IS PRICE COLLUSION, BLAH, BLAH,
WHICH WILL IT BE?
>> IT WOULD MAKE A LOT OF SENSE
FOR US TO FILL THE GAP WITH THE
WORLD MARKET AND OUR OWN PRICES.
ENERGY TYPE INFLATION IS WORST
TYPE EVER INFLATION BECAUSE IT
FLOWS TO THE ECONOMY BUT
SHIPPING.
ENERGY INFLATION IS A TRIGGER
FOR ALL SORTS OF OTHER
INFLATION.
SO THIS WAR COULD ACTUALLY
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
INFLATIONARY KIND OF IMPACT TO
THE WORLD BUT ALSO HERE IN THE
U.S.
LARRY: UNLESS?
>> UNLESS IF WE ENCOURAGED OIL
AND GAS INDUSTRY TO FILL THE
GAP.
LARRY: WHY IS IT SO HARD?
IT IS IDEALOGICAL ISSUE I
SUPPOSE BUT, WHEN THE PRESIDENT
SAYS THAT, AS I QUOTED HIM IN MY
OPENING RIFF, WE’RE GOING TO
TAKE ACTIONS, WHAT, I MEAN, ARE
THEY GOING TO GO TO STRATEGIC
PETROLEUM RESERVES?
>> WELL, ONE OF THE
CHALLENGES --
LARRY: FOR THE LAST 12 MINUTES?
>> ONE OF THE CHALLENGES IF
THERE ISN’T A BUNCH OF CAPACITY
READY TO GO IT IS HARD TO MOVE
IT FAST.
SO THE ACTIONS TAKEN TO HOLD
BACK THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
FROM HAVING SPARE CAPACITY OVER
THE LAST YEAR IT IS HARD FOR THE
OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY TO TURN ON
A DIME.
THE ONLY TWO PLACES IN THE WORLD
RIGHT NOW THAT ARE THE SWING
PRODUCERS THAT HAVE THAT
CAPACITY PRIMARILY, SAUDI ARABIA
AND UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF PUBLIC
POLICY AND INVESTMENT IN THE
LAST YEAR IN THE NEAR TERM GOING
TO SAUDI ARABIA AND U.A.E.
LARRY: REGULATORY.
>> REGULATORY.
LARRY: THEY MADE THEIR BED.
NOW THEY HAVE TO SLEEP IN IT.
>> YEAH.
LARRY: AND, YOU’RE RIGHT, I MEAN
IS OIL -- SO SAY THERE’S WAR AND
THE STATUS QUO CONTINUES, $100 A
BARREL, $125 A BARREL, WHAT DO
YOU THINK?
>> YEAH IT COULD EASILY GET
ABOVE $100 A BARREL.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT COULD
REALLY HAPPEN IS THAT EVEN IF WE
DON’T PUT ANY SANCTIONS ON
RUSSIAN OIL AN GAS THE RUSSIANS
THEM MAY TRY TO TAKE IT OUT ON
REST OF THE WORLD BY STOPPING
FULL DELIVERY OF THEIR FIVE
MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF CRUDE
OR 11 BCF A DAY OF GAS THEY
DELIVER TO EUROPE.
IF THEY START CUTTING THAT BACK
BECAUSE OF WAR, IF THEY CLAIM
THAT, THE PRICES THAT --
LARRY: POP, THEY WILL POP THE
PRICES ENORMOUSLY RIGHT AWAY.
>> I MEAN THEIR ABILITY TO JUST
TWEAK A LITTLE BIT OF THAT, EVEN
IF WE DON’T PUT SANCTIONS ON
WHICH WOULD BE BETTER, RIGHT,
LIKE WE DID WITH IRAN AND
VENEZUELA BUT BECAUSE EUROPE AND
US ARE IN A MUCH WEAKER
POSITION, THEY ACTUALLY HAVE THE
POWER RIGHT NOW TO --
LARRY: RUSSIA DOES, RUSSIA DOES.
>> RUSSIA.
LARRY: WHAT A TERRIBLE POSITION
WE’RE IN, THIS COUNTRY THAT IS
TO SAY AND IT’S SO AVOIDABLE IF
NOT FOR THIS IDEALOGICAL JIHAD
AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS.
ANYWAY, PAUL DAB BARRED, TOP
ENERGY DEPARTMENT SCIENTIST.
HOW LONG WERE YOU THERE?