>> MY TOTALLY NONPARTISAN SYSTEM
GENERATES PREDICTIONS, NOT
ENDORSEMENTS AND THE WAY IT
WORKS IS IT’S CALLED THE 13 KEYS
TO THE WHITE HOUSE.
IT ENGAGES THE STRENGTH AND
PERFORMANCE OF THE PARTY HOLDING
THE WHITE HOUSE -- TRUMP OF
COURSE WHITE RIGHT NOW.
THAT MEANS IT IS GOVERNANCE, NOT
CAMPAIGNING THAT COUNTS.
IMAGINE THAT.
AND THE WAY THE SYSTEM WORKS,
SIX OR MORE KEYS GO AGAINST THE
WHITE HOUSE PARTY, THEY ARE
PREDICTED LOSERS.
ANY SIX.
THAT’S HOW I WAS ABLE TO PREDICT
TRUMP IN 2016 BECAUSE THE
DEMOCRATS HAD EXACTLY SIX KEYS
AGAINST THEM.
THIS TIME I HAVE A DIFFERENT
PREDICTION, NOW THE TRUMP IS THE
INCUMBENT, HE HAS SEVEN KEYS OUT
AGAINST HIM AND MY PREDICTION IS
THAT DONALD TRUMP WILL BECOME
THE FIRST SITTING PRESIDENT
SINCE GEORGE H.W. BUSH IN 1992
TO LOSE A REELECTION BID AND
JOE BIDEN WILL BECOME THE NEXT
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.
>> Martha: TAKING A LOOK AT
THOSE KEYS, WE COULD PUT THEM
BACK UP, I DON’T KNOW THAT WE
WILL HAVE TIME TO GET THROUGH
ALL OF THEM BUT WHICH ONES STAND
OUT TO YOU AS THE MOST IMPORTANT
AND CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHAT’S
UNDERLYING THEM?
>> THE KEYS THAT STAND OUT MOST
IMPORTANT ARE ONES THAT TURNED
IN 2020 AFTER THE PANDEMIC AND
THE CRIES FOR SOCIAL AND RACIAL
JUSTICE.
GOING INTO 2020, DONALD TRUMP
WAS LOOKING GREAT WITH ONLY FOUR
KEYS DOWN BUT THEN WE HAVE THE
PANDEMIC WHICH NEVER GOT
RESOLVED AND THE CALL FOR SOCIAL
AND RACIAL JUSTICE WOULD NEVER
GOT RESOLVED AND COST TRUMP
THREE MORE KEYS.
THE SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC KEY
MEASURED BY AN ELECTION YEAR
RECESSION, LONG-TERM ECONOMIC
KEY BECAUSE DESPITE THE SPIKE IN
THE THIRD QUARTER ON A MUCH
LOWER BASE WILL GO STILL
NEGATIVE AND PUSH DOWN THE
AVERAGE AND OF COURSE THE SOCIAL
UNREST KEY BECAUSE OF WHAT’S
RAGING ACROSS THE LAND AND
REMAINS UNRESOLVED.
TRUMP GOES FROM FOUR KEYS DOWN
TO AT SEVEN KEYS DOWN.
NEVER IN THE HISTORY OF THE
UNITED STATES, MARTHA, HAS THE
PARTY HOLDING THE WHITE HOUSE
EVER SUFFERED SUCH A SUDDEN AND
DRAMATIC REVERSAL OF FORTUNE AND
JUST A FEW MONTHS.
>> Martha: IT’S AN INTERESTING
QUESTION BECAUSE THE THINGS THAT
YOU .2 ALMOST ARE IN SOME WAYS
OUT OF THE PRESIDENT -- ANY
PRESIDENT’S CONTROL.
THEY ARE THE KINDS OF THINGS
THAT HAPPEN TO PRESIDENTS,
HAPPEN DURING THEIR TENURE AND
OF COURSE HOW THEY RESPOND TO
THEM IS ONE OF THE KEY MEASURES.
I JUST WONDER WHEN YOU LOOK BACK
IN HISTORY AT OTHER TIMES WHEN
THINGS BECOME SO OVERWHELMING TO
THE OFFICE THAT PERHAPS THERE IS
NOT THAT MUCH A PRESIDENT CAN DO
TO CHANGE THOSE KEYS.
>> HERBERT HOOVER, A MAN WHO
SHOULD KNOW IT SAID VERY
PRESCIENTLY, WHEN YOU’RE THE
PRESIDENT CAN YOU GET THE CREDIT
FOR THE SUNSHINE AND THE BLAME
FOR THE RAIN.
IT’S RAINING PRETTY HARD ON
AMERICA RIGHT NOW.
>> Martha: I THINK IT IS
RAINING PRETTY HARD.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH, ALAN
LICHTMAN INTERESTING TO HEAR
YOUR PERSPECTIVE AND WE’LL AND
SEE IF YOUR RIGHT AND IF THIS IS