geoff: For over a year, most of
the attention has focused on
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and
attacks inside Ukraine.
But in recent weeks, the war has
expanded to attacks inside
Russia.
Today, the Kremlin reported
further explosions and
incursions in its homeland as
pro-ukrainian proxy forces step
up raids along Ukraine's border.
The attacks have been sporadic
and shouted in mystery.
Some have struck the periphery
of Russia's western border with
Ukraine while others have hit
hundreds of miles within Russia.
The spillover of Moscow's war
inside Russia intensified this
week with pro-ukrainian groups
releasing drone shots claiming
to have destroyed Russian
military targets.
Today, Moscow state TV aired
footage of civilians fleeing a
border region, where officials
reported to deaths.
Residents described chaotic
scenes at the side of an alleged
explosion.
>> We were given two hours to
get through.
We left without anything,
without documents.
As we were coming up, we saw the
explosion in front of our eyes.
Geoff: In recent days, the area
has been under heavy
bombardment.
Other attacks have been reported
in the neighboring region.
But there's also been a spate of
unconfirmed incidents far from
the front line, targeting oil
refineries, pipelines,
ammunition depots and railway
junctions.
Ukraine says the cross-border
incursions are the work of
anti-kremlin, Russian fighters.
Last month they seized several
frontier towns before
withdrawing to Ukraine.
One group is known as the
Russian volunteer corps.
Its leader is a notorious
Russian nationalist with links
to neo-nazi groups.
The second group calls itself
the freedom of Russia legion and
fight alongside Ukrainian
soldiers under a flag used by
Russian opposition groups.
Today, a spokesperson for the
group outlined its broad aims to
liberate Russian territories but
also divert Moscow's troops.
>> One of our tactical aims is
to draw Russian troops from
other parts of the Ukrainian
front, to force them to relocate
substantial forces from the
front lines of Ukraine and get
them to protect their borders.
Geoff: Russia calls the
anti-conlon fighters terrorists.
Today at a virtual security
meeting, Russian president Putin
alluded to the assaults within
Russia and vowed to crush the
groups responsible.
>> Today we will deal with the
security of Russia, taking into
account the efforts our bill
wishers are still making and
intensifying in order to stirrup
the situation inside the Russian
Federation.
Geoff: Meantime, Moscow's
military has escalated its
aerial assault on Ukraine, this
month launching more than 20
waves of attacks on the capital.
That carried in today as
residents took shelter in Kyiv's
metro.
For more on the attacks inside
Russia, why they are happening
and who is conducting them, we
turn to Jennifer Cafarella,
national security fellow at the
institute for the study of war.
Thank you for being with us.
When you look at these attacks,
what do you see and what do you
think of the objectives of the
groups responsible for them?
Jennifer: There are clearly two
separate lines of effort, both
of which applying pressure
within Russia that does have the
potential to make conditions
easier for the Ukrainian armed
forces as they launch a
counteroffensive.
The first line are the
cross-border raids.
What is most remarkable about
them is the scale to which it is
dominating -- Russia is
dominating the narratives.
The second Linda effort is the
deep strikes that it appears
Ukrainians are doing to control
elements of resupply the Russian
forces in Ukraine will need to
mount a defense.
That is much more robust and
directly supported by whatever
the Ukrainian armed forces are
preparing for.
Geoff: What affects of these
different attacks having on
Russia and Russia's ability to
fight in Ukraine?
Jennifer: The cross-border raids
are having the effect of
accelerating the panic
essentially of the Russian
forces and border towns and
populations within Russia.
They continue to support the
broader narrative that not only
has Russia not won the war but
it's possible they will lose
this war.
That is important.
So too is the fact that these
cross-border raids have started
to draw Russian military forces
away from the lines and
reinforcing border towns.
Separately we have broader
disarray in some areas with the
Russian ability to organize and
mount a people's defense.
That is a key effect the
Ukrainians have achieved time
and again ahead of offensive
operations.
Geoff: How is the Kremlin
responding to these attacks?
Jennifer: The Kremlin is
reinforcing some border areas
and trying to signal that they
are treating this as primarily a
threat in the information space.
The actual hard fighting on the
ground is relatively limited but
the Kremlin is taking pains to
show its population is taking it
seriously.
What it means is the Kremlin is
making hard choices about where
to allocate limited number of
assets.
Geoff: How much coordination is
there among the groups
responsible for Visa talks --
for these attacks between the
groups and Ukraine?
Jennifer: If were talking about
the cross-border raids, we are
not sure.
These are relatively small
groups claiming responsibility
for these attacks.
There is reporting that link
them to the Ukrainian military
intelligence.
I can't say from unclassified
sources whether this is true,
all I can say is this is a small
line of effort and doesn't
require a significant amount of
Ukrainian support or
coordination.
Whatever level of contact is
there, I expect it is minimal.
I also hope it is minimal, as
some of the groups involved have
problematic ideologies and are
not who we would like to see
supported on the battleground.
Geoff: How does Ukraine contend
with that, that one of is linked
with neo-nazis?
Jennifer: I think the Ukrainians
are in the position we have to
keep in mind this is an
existential fight of their
ability to survive as a nation
and people.
The Ukrainian government and
military intelligence see that
Putin has domestic enemies and
sometimes the enemy of my enemy
is my friend in war.
These groups did exist,
Ukrainians did not create them.
These are Russians.
Ukrainians seem to be exploding
at least in the information
space and possibly with some
small level of contact.
Geoff: Thank you for your
insights.
♪♪