FOR SANDERS TO BEAT AT THIS POINT, WHICH NOBODY COULD HAVE
PROJECTED.
PROJECTED. BUT SANDERS IS CLEARLY ON THE
TOP.
TOP. >> AS WE NEW YORK GIANTS FANS
SAY AT LEAST FIVE TIMES A YEAR,
A WIN IS A WIN.
STEVE KORNACKI, I KNOW YOU’VE
BEEN BRINGING IN MORE NUMBERS.
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. WE COULD TAKE YOU THROUGH A
COUPLE IMPORTANT THINGS AS THIS
NIGHT KIND OF WRAPS UP IN TERMS
OF THE RESULTS.
WE WERE SHOWING ALL NIGHT THAT
SANDERS IS LEADING, SAYING IT’S
A LONG SHOT SCENARIO FOR
BUTTIGIEG.
BUTTIGIEG. A BIG PART OF IT HAD TO DO WITH
THIS TOWN FINALLY REPORTING.
YOU SAW BERNIE SANDERS WON THIS
THING DOUBLE DIGITS.
A MARGIN OF ABOUT 500 OVER
BUTTIGIEG.
BUTTIGIEG. WE EXPECTED SOMETHING LIKE THAT
TO HAPPEN, NEEDED TO SEE IT TO
GET THAT THING CALLED STATEWIDE.
SO AT THAT POINT THIS RACE WAS
THEN CALLED FOR SANDERS.
YOU SEE THERE ARE STILL SOME
OUTSTANDING THINGS ON THE MAP
HERE.
HERE. WE CAN TELL YOU BIG PICTURE, WHY
IS SANDERS ON TOP AS THIS NIGHT
COMES TO AN END?
CITIES.
CITIES. HE WON THE SEVEN LARGEST CITIES
IN THE STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HE WON MANCHESTER, THE BIGGEST
ONE.
ONE. HE WON NASHUA, CONCORD, DOVER,
ROCHESTER, PORTSMOUTH AND
COCAINEKEEN.
COCAINEKEEN. WHERE WAS HE WEAK?
WHERE WERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
BUTTIGIEG TO GET THIS CLOSE?
WE TALKED ALL NIGHT ABOUT
BEDROOM COMMUNITIES ALONG THAT
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER.
BORDER. YOU SAY PELHAM RIGHT HERE,
SALEM.
SALEM. BUTTIGIEG WAS WINNING SOME OF
THESE PLACES.
THESE PLACES. HERE’S AN EXAM, WINDPLE HERE, WI
SANDERS KIND OF LAGGED.
SOME OF THESE SUBURBAN AREAS
ACROSS THE BORDER OUTSIDE
MANCHESTER, SANDERS KIND OF
LAGGED.
LAGGED. IT GAVE BUTTIGIEG AN
OPPORTUNITY, NOT QUITE ENOUGH,
THOUGH.
THOUGH. OVERALL WE ALWAYS SAY DELEGATE
RACE.
RACE. HERE’S THE DELEGATE DISTRIBUTION
FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE.
GUESS WHAT?
GUESS WHAT? IN TERMS OF DELEGATES, NATIONAL
CONVENTION DELEGATES, SANDERS
AND BUTTIGIEG ARE GOING TO WALK
OUT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH THE
SAME NUMBER.
SAME NUMBER. NINE FOR SANDERS.
NINE FOR BUTTIGIEG.
SIX FOR AMY KLOBUCHAR.
WHY IS THAT?
AGAIN, EXTREMELY COMPLICATED
MATH, BUT BASICALLY THERE WERE
THREE POOLS OF DELEGATES HERE IN
NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A STATEWIDE POOL OF
DELEGATES.
DELEGATES. THERE WAS THE FIRST
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT. AND THERE WAS THE SECOND
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT. EACH ONE OF THESE WAS ALLOCATED
EIGHT DELEGATES.
EIGHT DELEGATES. AND THE MARGIN WAS BASICALLY SO
CLOSE IN ALL THREE OF THESE
PLACES BETWEEN SANDERS AND
BUTTIGIEG THAT WHEN YOU GET INTO
THESE ROUNDING FORMULAS,
STATEWIDE SANDERS GOT THREE,
BUTTIGIEG GOT THREE, KLOBUCHAR
GOT TWO.
GOT TWO. IN THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT, IT WAS THREE, THREE,
TWO.
TWO. AND IN THE SECOND CONGRESSIONAL
DICT, IT WAS
DISTRICT, IT WAS THREE, THREE,
TWO.
TWO. SO ACTUALLY IN TERMS OF NATIONAL
CONVENTION DELEGATES, THEY’RE
WALKING OUT OF HERE, SANDERS AND
BUTTIGIEG, WITH THE SAME AMOUNT.
KLOBUCHAR ONBOARD.
KLOBUCHAR ONBOARD. THE DNC SAYS GETS DELEGATES.
THESE THREE GET AN AUTOMATIC
TICKET.
TICKET. THE FINAL THING I CAN TELL YOU,
JUST CHECKING TO SEE IF WE’VE
GOT ANY LATE RETURNS HERE, WE’VE
BEEN MONITORING TURNOUT ALL
NIGHT.
NIGHT. THIS A BIT OF SURPRISE.
WE TALKED ABOUT IOWA BEING FLAT.
I CAN TELL YOU RIGHT NOW THEY’VE
ALREADY BLOWN PAST WITH 90% IN,
THEY ARE HIGHER THAN THEIR 2016
LEVEL.
LEVEL. THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY HAS HIGHER TURNOUT AT
90% THAN THEY HAD WITH 100% IN
2016.
2016. THEY ARE ALSO RIGHT NOW ON PAR
WITH THEIR 2008 LEVEL.
THAT WAS OBAMA/CLINTON/EDWARDS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY -- WE’RE
GOING TO MONITOR IT -- WHEN THIS
FINAL 10% COMES IN, THAT THIS
PRIMARY WILL HAVE HIGHER TURNOUT
THAN THE 2008 PRIMARY DID.
SO THAT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR
DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. THAT IS A SWITCH FROM WHAT WE
WERE TALKING ABOUT LAST WEEK
WITH THOSE IOWA TURNOUT NUMBERS.
>> STEVE, IN TERMS OF THOSE
TURNOUT NUMBERS, A LOT OF PEOPLE
ARE GOING TO BE THINKING AHEAD
ABOUT THE GENERAL ELECTION,
THINKING ABOUT WHAT IT SAYS
ABOUT DEMOCRATIC VOTER
ENTHUSIASM MORE BROADLY.
IS THERE ANYTHING THAT’S CHANGED
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE?
VOTER REGISTRATION, PROCESS,
LAWS, FEARED RESTRICTIONS OR
OTHERWISE THAT MIGHT EXPLAIN
THOSE TURNOUT NUMBERS IN
PROCEDURAL TERMS RATHER THAN AS
A THING THAT WE COULD MAP
ENTHUSIASM ONTO?
ENTHUSIASM ONTO? >> WELL, ONE THING THAT YOU SEE
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS
INDEPENDENTS, AND I DON’T THINK
THE OFFICIAL TERM THERE IS
INDEPENDENT, BUT INDEPENDENTS
BASICALLY VERY EASY AND VERY
COMMON FOR THEM TO VOTE IN
EITHER THE DEMOCRATIC OR THE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. ONE THING WE SAW IN THE EXIT
POLL TONIGHT WAS THERE WAS A
HIGHER SHARE OF THE DEMOCRATIC
ELECTORATE HERE IN 2020 THAT
IDENTIFIED ITSELF AS
INDEPENDENT, POLITICALLY
INDEPENDENT, POLITICALLY INDEPENDENT, THAN YOU SAW IN
2016.
2016. I THINK IT WAS A DIFFERENCE OF
FIVE POINTS.
FIVE POINTS. SO ONE THING YOU SEE HERE --
REMEMBER, IN 2016, THERE WAS A
COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TRUMP, KASICH, RUBIO, ALL OF
THAT.
THAT. REALLY WASN’T MUCH OF A
COMPETITIVE ONE TONIGHT.
I THINK YOU SAW MORE
INDEPENDENTS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
GOING TO THAT DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY.
PRIMARY. THAT’S CERTAINLY I THINK PART OF
THIS.
THIS. BUT, AGAIN, IF THEY’RE ABOVE
2008 LEVELS HERE, I THINK YOU
MIGHT THEN START TALKING ABOUT,
HEY, IT IS JUST EASIER PROBABLY
FOR VOTERS TO PARTICIPATE IN A
PRIMARY THAN IT IS TO PAECHT
PARTICIPATE IN A CAUCUS.
IT MIGHT JUST BE EASIER TO SHOW
UP, GET A BALLOT, CAST IT AND
LEAVE IN FIVE MINUTES, SO THAT
MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER
TURNOUT BECAUSE OF THAT AS WELL.
>> IT MEANS ALSO AS WE GET THE
SORT OF FOLLOW-ON REPORTING AND
WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO SORT OF
LOOK AT ALL THE CROSS TABS AND
EVERYTHING COMING OUT OF THIS,
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
WHO, INDEPENDENT, UNDECLARED, NO
PARTY AFFILIATION VOTERS, WHO
THEY CHOSE BECAUSE IF DEMOCRATS
SEE THAT POOL OF VOTERS, EVEN
JUST SPECIFICALLY IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS POTENTIALLY AMONG
THE AUDIENCE THAT THEY COULD
BRING INTO A GENERAL ELECTION
FOR THE RIGHT DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE, THAT’S GOING TO
CHANGE THE WAY THAT INDIVIDUAL
CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN.
CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN. >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. WE WERE LOOKING AT -- I’M GOING
TO SEE IF I HAVE IT RIGHT IN
FRONT OF ME BECAUSE I CAN GIVE
YOU THAT INDEPENDENT NUMBER
RIGHT HERE.
RIGHT HERE. I GOT IT UP HERE IN THE EXIT
POLL, AND IF YOU GIVE ME
LITERALLY FIVE SECONDS.
AMONG INDEPENDENTS, THE 46% WHO
IDENTIFY THEMSELVES AS
INDEPENDENTS, FIRST PLACE,
BERNIE SANDERS, 29%.
SECOND PLACE, PETE BUTTIGIEG,
24%.