Tracking another round of damaging
winds and more flooding with
storms #2 and three on the way.
A very active Pacific with atmospheric
rivers that just keep hitting California.
Here's a look at the storm
timeline and as you can see,
we're going to take it from Sunday
all the way into next week.
Sunday night is when the rain and
snow develop an increasing winds,
which will be a huge concern
into early Monday morning.
Heavy rain and snow and the damaging
winds are going to combine.
For an extreme impact day
leading into Tuesday,
that's when our flooding concerns go up.
More rain and snow.
Snow plus the runoff from what will be rain
on top of snow in the Sierra plus next week,
multiple rounds of rain and snow continuing
in the pipeline and as you can see,
we are just all lit up with watches and
warnings throughout the entire state.
We're going to focus on the high wind
warning that is what has been causing the
most damage here with the recent storms.
Especially with widespread power outages,
trees that are coming down
with the saturated ground.
We're talking trees that are
completely taking out houses and
cars that are parked on the street.
And we've got another round and early
Monday morning it all starts up at midnight,
takes us through the afternoon
with sustained winds 25 to 40 mph,
but gusts at 45 to 65 mph.
And again,
widespread power outages possible
not just in the Sierra,
but we're going to take that.
All the way into the valley now you
can see our peak wind gusts from our
Saturday storm into early Sunday.
We're closer to about 35 to 45 plus
mph in the northern San Joaquin Valley.
Closer to 60 across the coast,
47 mile per hour peak wind gusts
for Sacramento executive.
But we did see some isolated areas
that got over 60 mph and that's
where we're headed again for tonight
into early tomorrow.
You can see at midnight things are
starting to ramp up here through the valley.
And the foothills continuing
to increase by 3:00 AM.
Wind gusts closer to about 40 to 45
mph throughout the entire valley,
parts of the foothills.
And for this year,
we're already over 50 mile per
hour wind gusts,
potentially over 100 mph on
some of the ridges by 5:00 AM.
Isolated areas at about 60 to 65
mile per hour peak wind gusts.
And then things will start to wind down,
but we're going to keep it pretty
strong here through 7:00 AM.
Until we get some quieter conditions
coming our way during the afternoon,
that's when that threshold starts to
decrease for our high wind warning
and we'll see that expire just after
2:00 o'clock in the afternoon.
But again,
widespread power outages possible
throughout the region tonight
into early Monday.
You can see it here on our power outage map,
including the foothills
and the Sierra as well.
It'll be a busy night and morning
for our Sunday night and morning
for all of our emergency officials.
Undoubtedly. And getting ready
is what we can do right now.
We can charge all of our devices
including our computers,
our laptops and phones as well
as a car if you have one that
is an electric charged car.
Fill up the car.
Indeed be being prepared for
any flooding events.
Get those important documents
ready as well as are to go back
and remembering pets as well.
Wanna make sure you have any of the
carriers ID tags and also the food and
toys and getting ready to evacuate everybody.
And the need to because of flooding,
in terms of our rain,
it is going to be heavier than
what we saw last night.
This last storm was mainly a wind event,
not as much on the heavy rain side,
which is good because it allowed
some of that water to recede.
But now we get this bigger
storm heading our way.
So it's really the combination of the
wind and the rain that comes in with
this one that makes it that extreme
impact storm and all is in conjunction
and almost in sequence with that.
Strongest winds,
that's when we start to see the heaviest
bands of rain coming through as well.
It will initially be snow in this year
and that's a really key point here and
how this is going to unfold because as
soon as we start to see rain on top of snow,
down comes the runoff gravity,
taking it downstream and filling
many of our waterways,
which will eventually make
it into the valley.
So it's 7:00 AM that's when we start to see
that snow line creeping up higher and higher,
meaning rain on top of snow.
And we still continue to see areas of
moderate to heavy rain in the valley.
It's very likely we'll see St.
flooding at this point and
possibility of roadway flooding.
Turn around,
don't drown and.
Time and time again,
that is the message that
we continue to to say,
especially when we talk
about flooding concerns.
Now this has a deep moisture tap
all the way in the Pacific and
it has a warm component to it.
That's why we're going to pull in a
lot of that warmth and bring up those
snow levels during the day on Monday.
But it also has a lot more moisture
than the last storm system.
So our flood watch will
continue through Wednesday.
Again,
we talked about rainfall and runoff St.
flooding, creeks and streams,
and we're going to add in the
possibility of some river flooding.
We have 10 rivers that are above flood stage.
Already 27 above monitor and
then 63 with normal conditions.
That's throughout the entire state.
I zoomed in just a little bit
closer to our forecast area
just so that we can get an idea
of what we're looking at here.
One that we've been covering very closely
is the Consumnes River at Michigan Bar.
So much of that area already flooded and
it hasn't even reached its Crest yet.
That happens on Monday afternoon,
so tomorrow afternoon comes down
a little bit then picks back up,
not necessarily well above that flood
stage and certainly not at a record high,
but it is going to have some
concerns there on the Cosumnes.
The other one that we're going
to be watching isn't necessarily
one that's expected to flood,
but the Sacramento.
Over at I street is a very important
key area for the Department of
Water Resources because they will
open the Sacramento Wear once
that stage gets at 29.87 feet.
Now that is new,
that data point as of 2017,
they used to have it a little bit lower.
They moved it up just slightly and it looks
like the Crest is going to be at 29.8 feet.
So it's very possible they'll be
adjusting the Sacramento where perhaps.
Opening a few of those gates,
that's something we are gonna
be watching very closely.
Moving on to the Sierra Winter Storm warning,
in effect, we've got major mountain impacts
anywhere from 3 to 8 feet of new snow.
That's right.
I said feet, not inches of snow.
So many people,
sometimes I do these extended weather
hits and they say, oh,
she said feet, not inches.
No, this is feet of snow in the
Sierra with gusts over 80 mph.
Power outages possible up there
and travel hazardous also.
Any of the ski and ski resorts up there.
Avalanche Watch is in effect in
and through Wednesday morning.
This is for the Backcountry and
it's because of heavy rain and
snow with Gale force winds,
widespread avalanche activity
possible throughout the Sierra
until Wednesday morning.
So again,
hazardous driving conditions in the Sierra,
near whiteout conditions,
major travel delays, Rd.
closures possible and chain
controls very likely.
So travel is highly discouraged.
Want to keep those roads?
Clear though,
emergency officials again can
do their job and get to people
that absolutely need help.
As far as those snow level changes,
I mentioned this a little bit
just a moment ago,
but here's the details
on what we're expecting.
On 80 and 50,
we'll start it off at about
6000 to 6300 feet.
That's pretty normal for a storm system.
But when we start to see that warmth come in,
we'll see that snow line go up
to about 7300 to 7600 feet.
That will put it slightly
above the passes there.
And then that cold air starts
to work in on Tuesday.
That'll bring that snow line
back down to about 5000 to 5600
feet on Tuesday afternoon.
And then Wednesday really
comes crashing down here.
That's when we lose.
More that moisture tap will still
have some precipitation coming in,
but our snow line drops to about
4000 feet giving a nice little snow
dusting near Pollock Pines and Blue
Canyon as well. So total accumulation
is going to be tough to measure just
simply because we are going to be
getting that mix of rain and snow.
But places that have a steady snow are
going to be the ones that are going
to be seeing closer to that 8 foot
possibility for total snow accumulation,
whereas those lower elevations are
going to have that mix of rain.
Snow, some melting,
then snow coming in melting and snow
coming in again, rainfall totals.
This is just since a through Tuesday,
we're gonna have anywhere from 1
1/2 to 2 1/2 inches of rain closer
to 3 inches of rain for Vacaville.
And then as we gear up towards the foothills,
anywhere from about four to almost
7 inches of rain in some pockets
of the foothills,
taking us through the timeline of
the couple of storm systems that
lead us off for the work week,
the first one moving in overnight.
Sunday through Monday with the
heaviest rain during the early morning
hours of Monday snow initially
to start us off in the Sierra.
But once that warmer air works in,
we will see that snow line come up
and then it will come back down
on Tuesday as some colder air
moves into this storm system.
That will also destabilize the atmosphere,
giving us a chance of thunderstorms
on Tuesday.
But again,
the bigger news on that is that that snow
level will start to come down and take
some pressure off of the runoff on Wednesday.
We have a storm system geared up to hit us,
it's just that it's colder
so isn't quite as potent.
But then we get ready for
Friday and Saturday storm,
which again has a lot of moisture
and renewed flooding concerns.
The impacts Monday through Tuesday,
all in the extreme category.
Rain, snow, wind, travel, flooding.
We're going to be tracking
it all into our Monday.
The other part of this story,
and I've gotten a lot of questions on this,
how is this helping our drought situation?
Well,
it's not hurting.
It's just that we don't want too
much at one time because we don't
want that all to become runoff.
We want to be able to store that water
and the places that we've built,
the capacity to store it being our
reservoirs and also our groundwater.
How much can we recharge?
You know, when water sands on the ground,
it actually starts to infiltrate.
And so it helps us to get that groundwater,
the water beneath our feet, back up to.
A place where we can tap into
it during extreme droughts.
So we are starting to see
some improvement here.
We've had rain every single
day of the month in 2023,
so our totals are starting
to look pretty good here.
We just need a little bit of
break and that's key to keep us
out of the flooding category,
but also help to bring us out
of that drought
category. So we just want to get that
perfect sweet spot there between
storm systems and a break in between.
Here's where the numbers stand.
Since October 1st,
that's the beginning of the water year.
That'll be the benchmark for what we
measure our entire water gear on and every
one of us is above average right now.
Some of the bigger spots are gonna be
right along that 8050 corridor here,
but certainly starting to see some nice
growth in the northern part of the state.
The places that were actually
hardest hit by the last drought as
far as our snowpack numbers are
just unbelievable right now,
about 150 to over 200% of average.
If we were not to get anymore snow,
the southern Sierra would reach our
90% of average for our April 1st date,
which is pretty much the last date that
we measure snowpack just simply because
after that the pipeline shuts down and
it's too warm for mostly snow in the Sierra.
So our statewide average is at 77%
of that April 1st date and then
almost 190% of average,
all of that eventually
melts fills our reservoir.
So how are things looking?
Some kind of some some good news and
then also some news that we we want
to look a little bit more closely
at first of all Shasta and Oroville,
plenty of capacity,
not planning to really release much
water right now because we can keep
storing it hopefully at a later date.
Start those nice slow metering of
water coming down through the valley.
Now Folsom's a smaller reservoir,
so it's gonna fill up faster and
it's gonna drain faster.
So we have some flexibility with that.
While releases have already started
at Folsom and that's to make way for
some of that runoff coming in because
there's not as much capacity to have
that relief there coming at a faster rate.
Now in terms of new Melonis and Don Pedro,
we're at about 30 to 60%.
Capacity right now.
So everything is coming up.
That's the great news on this.
We just don't want it to come up too fast,
especially for some of
those smaller reservoirs.
So our mountain conditions,
you can see here pretty much rain and
snow mixed right through the week.
We'll have rain throughout the foothills.
And then for the coast,
it's going to be rain right across the board.
The other area that looks a little
bit concerning here is going to be the
Santa Cruz Mountains because of the
position of some of these atmospheric rivers,
how those slide their way southward,
and those areas tend to be very vulnerable.
So we're going to watch.
Right along Hwy.
1 as this water continues to just
fall from the sky and give us a
lot of inundation here.
So here comes our atmospheric river
and you can see very wet conditions
right through the middle of this
week as we head into our Friday,
Saturday system, another one that's in
the pipeline will get a bit of a break
and then we're right back at it for
next week as well with multiple rounds.
This is going to give us close to about
3 to 6 inches of rain total from the
coast through the Valley, 7 to 10.
Changes possible for rain in the foothills.
Looking at the longer range,
it's going to be likely cooler,
but much much wetter.
That takes us nearly till the end of January.
So flooding concerns continue here.
As we continue to mark our 10 day
forecast with multiple rounds of rain,
we will be watching the flooding
conditions and as always,
you can get sandbagging and
emergency information on abc10.com.