Ahead of the Premier League’s restart, Aston Villa sit in 19th place, two points and a
sizeable change in goal difference away from safety. The side have three of their first
four fixtures at home, though, and a game in hand over those around them.
Seventeen of Villa’s 25 points have been won at Villa Park. Crucially, only 21 of their
56 goals conceded have come at home. Dean Smith’s side must ensure their home form
is at least maintained to have a shot at staying up. But what else can they improve upon?
No side in the Premier League have conceded more goals, and Villa have also given up more
shots than anyone – only Newcastle have allowed more on target.
And, according to data from Statsbomb, via FBref.com, Villa’s post-shot expected goals
against total, which takes into account whether the shot conceded was on target, is the second
worst in the league. In short, while a lot of the shots Villa concede are wayward, enough
are on target and of high enough quality for it to be a real problem.
And Villa are the third worst team in the league for post shot xG minus goals allowed
– this means that when a shot is on target, they’re either unlucky with it, or have
a below average ability to stop that shot becoming a goal.
There’s no easy fix here for Villa, but they can try to be more compact and push their
defensive line higher. Teams find it too easy to find space between the lines in front of
Villa’s defence, especially wide, where the full backs aren’t afforded enough cover.
While this doesn’t necessarily generate shots from wide areas, it means teams can
work the ball into good shooting positions because Villa aren’t compact enough. Reducing
space between the lines will help Villa’s backline and reduce shot volume. And pushing
up will keep the ball away from goal.
Another way of conceding fewer shots is to defend more aggressively or proactively. This
can partly be achieved by pushing up, as closing down space means shots are hurried, or can’t
get off quickly enough, and Aston Villa are good at blocking.
But further up the pitch, they are a passive side. Although Jack Grealish actually leads
the team for pressures, Villa’s overall efforts at pressuring the opposition are lacklustre.
For Idrissa Gueye in Villa’s relegation season of 2015/16, see Marvellous Nakamba
in 2019/20 – a superb defensive midfielder trying his best to compensate for very little
defensive activity ahead of him. Nakamba accounts for 12% of Villa’s successful pressures
but he, and his teammates, only get going in Villa’s defensive third.
Pressing isn’t necessarily the answer to defensive woes: a side like Wolves show that
a passive, but well organised, defensive structure can limit opposition opportunities. But Villa
don’t have that, either, and increasing pressure further up the pitch – effectively
starting to defend before the ball gets to Nakamba – might be helpful. Villa are vulnerable
in part because they cede the midfield by defending too passively but without the compactness
that makes them hard to play through.
While greater compactness might be easier to institute at this stage of the season,
applying more pressure in midfield is also a must if Villa are to be able to start conceding
fewer goals.
Jack Grealish has been Aston Villa’s key attacking player. With seven goals and six
assists, no one has contributed more to the team’s attacking output. Grealish’s 30.6
touches per 90 in the attacking third are the most for Villa; he’s carried the ball
more effectively than anyone else; and he’s won the most fouls in the Premier League this
season.
Grealish and John McGinn – now fit again after injury - also lead Villa for completed
passes that lead to shots. Conor Hourihane can also weight in creatively – he’s amassed
Villa’s best expected assists per 90 so far this season, with 0.27, according to Statsbomb.
Before the break, Villa tried playing three at the back in seven games, before reverting
to a 4-1-4-1 against Leicester in a 4-0 loss. With McGinn and Hourihane back, Smith should
revert to the 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 – this offers Nakamba more protection, while McGinn can
carry the ball from central midfield and Grealish occupies his favoured left wing spot, from
where he’s able to do the most damage.
Villa face a huge task. They need to maximise the attacking output of Grealish and McGinn,
while tightening up defensively, in order to avoid the drop. They have significant issues,
but there are opportunities for them to improve and give themselves the best chance to stay
in the Premier League.