LOOK AT IT.
>> NBC'S RICHARD ENGEL REPORTING
FROM THE GROUND IN UKRAINE FOR
US.
JOINING US NOW, PENTAGON
CORRESPONDENT FOR THE "NEW YORK
TIMES" HELEN COOPER.
POLICY REPORTER AMY McKINNON.
MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR MIKE BARNICLE.
JONATHAN LEMIRE IS STILL WITH
US, AS WELL.
HELEN, LET ME BEGIN WITH YOU.
YOU HEAR THE STORIES FROM THE
GROUND.
YOU'RE REMINDED OF WHAT'S
HAPPENING IN MARIUPOL AT THIS
VERY MOMENT, AND THERE IS NO
WONDER WHY UKRAINIANS DON'T
TRUST -- SKEPTICISM PUTS IT TOO
LIGHTLY -- JUST DON'T TRUST
RUSSIA IN THE NEGOTIATIONS AS
THEY'RE SITTING DOWN IN TURKEY.
IT'S A BEGINNING, A START, BUT
EVERYTHING THEY TALKED ABOUT IS
VERY HYPOTHETICAL.
EVERYTHING IS SORT OF PIE IN THE
SKY.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S
HAPPENING ON THE GROUND, WHY
WOULD UKRAINE TRUST RUSSIA AT
THIS POINT?
>> HI, YEAH.
FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS
CONFLICT, VLADIMIR PUTIN HAS
SHOWN US THAT HE -- THAT YOU
REALLY CANNOT BELIEVE ANYTHING
THAT RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS OR
RUSSIAN ENVOYS OR WHAT HE SAYS.
IT IS CLEAR THAT THIS WHOLE IDEA OF RUSSIA DRASTICALLY REDUCING
OF RUSSIA DRASTICALLY REDUCING
ITS STRIKES IN CHERNIHIV OR ITS
TROOP PRESENCE ON CHERNIHIV OR
KYIV IS ACTUALLY BASICALLY A
FRONT FOR THE FACT THAT THEY'RE
LOSING THERE.
THEY'RE NOT DRASTICALLY REDUCING
ANYTHING.
ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEY WERE
STRIKING THESE CITIES.
BUT WHAT IS AT PLAY ON THE
GROUND IS THE FACT THAT THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY, BOTH IN KYIV
AND IN CHERNIHIV, VERY LARGELY
STALLED.
FOR WEEKS, THEY'VE BEEN BEATEN
BACK BY THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY.
SO IT IS A LITTLE BIT SORT OF
IRONIC IN THE EXTREME, THAT
VLADIMIR PUTIN WOULD THEN TURN
AROUND AND SAY THAT HE'S GOING
TO CALM DOWN THERE.
HE IS CALMING DOWN THERE
BECAUSE, IN MANY WAYS, HE'S BEEN
BEAT BACK.
HIS TROOPS HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE AT ALL.
I THINK THAT'S VERY MUCH -- THE
PENTAGON SEEMS TO THINK IT WAS A
DISGUISE IN AN UNUSUALLY,
SHARPLY WORDED PRESS CONFERENCE
YESTERDAY.
THE PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY
JOHN KIRBY SAID BEWARE, WE ARE
NOT GOING TO BELIEVE THIS.
WE EXPECT THIS IS MORE
REPOSITIONING.
RUSSIA IS PIVOTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, THE
DONBAS REGION.
EVEN THERE, THEY STILL HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF A FIGHT.
THEY'RE FOCUSING ON THAT REGION
BECAUSE THAT, FOR PUTIN TO HAVE
ANY CHANCE OF TRYING TO SELL HIS
ONE MONTH INTO UKRAINE AS ANY
KIND OF A VICTORY TO THE RUSSIAN
PEOPLE, HE HAS TO, AT THE VERY
LEAST, GET DONBAS.
HE HAS TO HAVE SOME KIND OF LAND
BRIDGE BETWEEN CRIMEA AND THE
DONBAS REGION.
THAT'S WHY MARIUPOL HAS BEEN
TAKING SUCH A POUNDING IN THE
SOUTH.
BUT HE STILL DOESN'T EVEN HAVE
MARIUPOL, SO IT'S -- THE EVENTS
OF THE LAST NIGHT CERTAINLY SHOW
THAT, I THINK IN MANY WAYS, THIS
IS A CYNICAL EMPLOY BY RUSSIA TO
BUY ITSELF SOME NEGOTIATING
TIME.
>> YEAH, THE PENTAGON YESTERDAY
QUICK TO POINT OUT, THEY DON'T
VIEW THIS AS A PULLBACK BY
RUSSIA.
IT IS A CHANGE IN STRATEGY,
PERHAPS, AS YOU SAY.
AMY, IN YOUR PIECE IN "FOREIGN
POLICY," YOU LAY OUT A SERIES OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES HERE, A WAY
OF PERHAPS SAVING FACE AT HOME
FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN OR JUST A WAY
OUT OF THIS.
WHICH OF THOSE DO YOU FIND TO BE
MOST LIKELY, AS WE WATCH HIM
CONTINUE TO WIPE OUT MARIUPOL,
FOR EXAMPLE?
BUT TO SUFFER LOSSES, FRANKLY,
AROUND KYIV AND OTHER PLACES IN
UKRAINE?
>> WELL, WHAT WE WANTED TO DO
WITH THIS PIECE IS -- I MOAN,EAN
IT'S BEEN CLEAR RUSSIA WAS NOT
GOING TO ACHIEVE ITS AIM OF
RAPIDLY ROP L LYLY TOPPLING KYIV
OVERTHROWING THE GOVERNMENT.
RUSSIANS WERE GOING TO HAVE TO
SHIFT THEIR STRATEGY.
WHAT WE WANTED TO DO WAS KIND OF
LAY OUT, REALLY COVER THE
WATERFRONT OF WHERE THE
POTENTIAL OPTIONS ARE OF WHERE
THIS DONCONFLICT MAY GO.
MY COLLEAGUES AND I SPOKE TO A
DOZEN U.S. AND EUROPEAN
OFFICIALS, AS WELL AS MILITARY
ANALYSTS AND REGIONAL EXPERTS,
TO TRY AND UNPACK WHAT THEY SAW
AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS OF
WHERE THIS CONFLICT MAY GO.
ALL WERE PRETTY QUICK TO POINT
OUT THAT WAR IS INHERENTLY
UNPREDICTABLE.
THIS CONFLICT HAS ALREADY TAKEN
A NUMBER OF TWISTS AND TURNS
WHICH, YOU KNOW, MANY COULD NOT
HAVE PREDICTED.
BUT THERE WERE FIVE KEY
SCENARIOS WHICH EMERGED.
I THINK THAT THE ULTIMATE RESULT
MAY ACTUALLY BE A COMBINATION OF
SOME OF THESE SCENARIOS.
I MEAN, WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY DOES
KIND OF BEAR OUT SOME OF OUR
REPORTING.
THAT, YOU KNOW, RUSSIA MAY WELL
NOW LOOK TO FOCUS EFFORT ON
EASTERN UKRAINE, ON THE DONBAS.
AS WE HEARD FROM THE PENTAGON
YESTERDAY, YOU KNOW, RUSSIA IS
CLAIMING IT IS PULLING BACK FROM
KYIV, BUT WESTERN OFFICIALS
REALLY WARNING WE MAY ONLY --
WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IS JUST
PREPARING FOR A FAR MORE FIERCE
ASSAULT ON EASTERN UKRAINE.
THERE'S A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
UKRAINE'S ARMED FORCES ARE
POSITIONED THERE.
IF RUSSIA IS ABLE TO SURROUND
THEM AND CUT THEM OFF, THAT
COULD BE QUITE A PIVOTAL MOMENT
IN THE DON FLIKTCONFLICT GOING F
>> YESTERDAY, THE PRESIDENT WAS
ASKED, YOU KNOW, IF HE BELIEVED
VLADIMIR PUTIN IN TERMS OF
WITHDRAWING OR SCALING BACK ON
HIS ASSAULT ON UKRAINE.
HIS ANSWER WAS VERY TENTATIVE,
WE WILL SEE.
I GUESS THE QUESTION I HAVE FOR
JONATHAN LEMIRE IS, WHAT IS LEFT
IN THE ADMINISTRATION'S TOOLBOX
AND IN NATO'S TOOLBOX IF
VLADIMIR PUTIN, ONCE AGAIN, IS
LYING?
>> WELL, CERTAINLY, WHITE HOUSE
OFFICIALS BELIEVE THAT VLADIMIR
PUTIN, ONCE AGAIN, IS LYING.
AND RIGHT NOW, IT'S TRYING TO DO
MORE OF THE SAME AT GREATER
PACE.
PRESIDENT BIDEN YESTERDAY HELD A
SECURE VIDEO CALL WITH THE
LEADERS OF ITALY, GERMANY, THE
UNITED KINGDOM, AND FRANCE, AND
URGED THEM TO KEEP IT GOING.
TO SAY, LOOK, THOUGH THE WAR
SEEMS TO BE GOING POORLY FOR
RUSSIA AT THIS MOMENT, IT'S NOT
THE TIME TO EASE UP.
WE NEED TO KEEP THE ECONOMIC
PRESSURE ON, THE SANCTIONS ON,
AS WELL AS THE ECONOMY ON.
MIKE BARNICLE, THE STATE OF PLAY
HERE.
WE HEARD, YOU KNOW, SOME
ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE
UKRAINIANS YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF
NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA.
SOME CONCESSIONS FOR THE FIRST
TIME THEY MIGHT BE WILLING TO
GIVE.
CERTAINLY, THE WEST DOESN'T FEEL
LIKE MOSCOW IS SERIOUS, AT LEAST
NOT YET, ABOUT ACTUALLY MAKING A
DEAL.
EVEN IF -- THEY'RE MORE LIKELY
REPOSITIONING FORCES THAN
PULLING ANY OUT.
IT IS NOT A CEASE-FIRE IF YOU
ARE STILL BOMBING EASTERN
UKRAINE.
WHAT SHOULD BE THE APPROACH
HERE?
HOW DO YOU EVENTUALLY, CAN YOU
EVENTUALLY TAKE PUTIN AND MOSCOW
AT THEIR WORD?
>> I DON'T KNOW.
I DON'T KNOW.
BECAUSE PUTIN LIES.
HE SENDS LOW-LEVEL FUNCTIONARIES
TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE IN
TURKEY.
MAY BE THE DEPUTY OF REGISTERED
MOTOR VEHICLES.
THEY'RE NOT SOMEBODY WITH ANY
CLOUT.
HELENE, AMY'S PIECE HAS FIVE
ENDS TO THE WAR.
A PEACE AGREEMENT, BLOODY
STALEMATE
STALEMATE, PARTITION, VICTORY,
OR BLACK SWAN EVENT.
EACH OF THOSE POSSIBILITIES
INVOLVES WHAT VLADIMIR PUTIN
WANTS TO DO, NO ONE ELSE BUT
VLADIMIR PUTIN.
WHAT IS THE LATEST YOU CAN TELL
US IN TERMS OF COMMUNICATION
BETWEEN THE PENTAGON, BETWEEN
OUR TOP GENERALS, THE JOINT
CHIEFS, AND THE RUSSIANS, IS
THERE ANY?
>> THAT'S A REALLY FRIGHTENINGLY
EASY ANSWER.
NO.
THEY HAVE NOT BEEN TALKING.
WE ASKED THIS QUESTION EVERY DAY
AT THE PENTAGON.
EVERY DAY WE HEAR BACK, NO,
THERE HASN'T BEEN COMMUNICATION.
YOU KNOW, THERE IS A DECON
DECONFLICTION LINE THEY CALL,
WHICH IS OPEN, AND THEY TEST
THAT TWICE A DAY.
THAT'S THERE, BUT THAT'S THERE
FOR IN CASE OF, LIKE, AN
EMERGENCY THAT IS TOO SCARY,
REALLY, TO NECESSARILY THINK
ABOUT RIGHT NOW.
RUSSIA HAS NOT BEEN OPEN TO
PHONE CALLS FROM GENERAL MILLEY
OR THE DEFENSE SECRETARY, LLOYD
AUSTIN.
GENERAL MARK MILLEY, THE
CHAIRMAN OF THE JOIN CHIEFT CHIE
STAFF, THEY STOPPED TRYING TO
TALK TO THEIR RUSSIAN
COUNTERPARTS.
THEY HAVEN'T HAD TALKS IN QUITE
SOME TIME.
THE IDEA OF SORT OF AN OPEN LINE
OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE
U.S. AND RUSSIA IS NOT
NECESSARILY THERE, EXCEPT FOR AT
A LOW LEVEL.
SO IT'S BEEN -- AS THIS HAS GONE
ON, THIS BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SORT OF TENSE, BUT IT'S ALSO
BEEN A CASE OF WATCHING THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY SHOW ON THE
GROUND THE LIMITS OF WHAT IT CAN
DO.
>> HELENE COOPER, ARE YOU
HEARING ANYTHING FROM YOUR
CONTACTS, YOUR SOURCES, ABOUT
MARIUPOL?
WE HAVE SOME REPORTS FROM
HIGH-LEVEL UKRAINIAN SOURCES
THAT THEY NEED WEAPONS TO TRY
AND MAKE A LAST-DITCH ATTEMPT TO
PROTECT THIS CITY, WHICH IS
BASICALLY FLATTENED, BUT THAT
WE'RE DAYS AWAY FROM MARIUPOL
BEING TAKEN COMPLETELY.
AND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SAVING MARIUPOL AND HAVING IT
TAKEN COMPLETELY IS SOMETHING
ABOUT GETTING WEAPONS OVER THE
POLISH BORDER, BUT WAITING FOR
PERMISSION FROM OTHER COUNTRIES,
MAYBE THE U.S.
ARE YOU HEARING ANYTHING ABOUT
SORT OF BLOCKAGES IN
COORDINATION?
>> THE PENTAGON SAYS THERE
HASN'T BEEN BLOCKAGES.
THEY INSIST THAT THEY HAVE BEEN
GETTING WEAPONS INTO UKRAINE
FAIRLY QUICKLY.
WITHIN, YOU KNOW, DAYS OF
APPROVAL FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
SO THAT'S SOMETHING THAT IF YOU
TALK TO THE PEOPLE HERE, THEY
THINK THAT THEY'RE GETTING
THINGS OVER THERE FAIRLY
QUICKLY.
OF COURSE, ON THE GROUND IN
MARIUPOL, IT IS GOING TO BE A
LOT DIFFERENT BECAUSE THIS IS A
CITY THAT'S BEEN UNDER SIEGE FOR
WEEKS NOW.
IT HAS HELD OUT.
SO WE'VE BEEN -- THERE'S BEEN
ALMOST, YOU KNOW, FROM THE
OUTSIDE THIS EXPECTATION THAT
MARIUPOL WOULD FALL AT ANY
MOMENT.
IT HASN'T.
IT HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD OUT, IN
LARGE PART BECAUSE OF THE FIERCE
RESISTANCE BY THESE VERY BRAVE
UKRAINIAN TROOPS ON THE GROUND.
SO I WOULD NOT, AT THIS POINT,
PREDICT AN END FOR MARIUPOL, BUT
THE CITY HAS BEEN LARGELY, AS
YOU SAY, FLATTENED BY RUSSIA.
YOU KNOW, WITHOUT THE ABILITY TO
TAKE IT OVER, SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY'VE DONE IN KHARKIV.
WITHOUT THE ABILITY TO ACTUALLY
WIN ON THE GROUND, THEY'VE JUST
STRUCK AND STRUCK AND STRUCK
FROM THE AIR.
>> AMY, MOSCOW, OBVIOUSLY,
MISCALCULATED.
THEY THOUGHT THEY COULD PERHAPS
TOPPLE KYIV IN A MATTER OF DAYS.
HERE WE ARE PAST THE MONTH MARK,
AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT.
U.S. OFFICIALS ALSO SEEM TO HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF
THE RUSSIAN MILITARY.
THEY'RE CONDUCTING THEIR OWN
REVIEW, AS WE REPORTED TODAY.
WHAT IS YOUR SENTIMENT?
WHAT WENT SO BADLY WRONG FOR THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY?
>> I THINK THERE'S SEVERAL
ANSWERS TO THAT QUESTION.
I MEAN, ONE IS, YOU KNOW,
THERE'S SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF INFORMATION PUT
NMSZ ISPUTIN
IS GETTING FROM HIS TOP
OFFICIALS.
HE'S BEEN ISOLATED DURING THE
COVID-19 PANDEMIC.
OFFICIALS WHO WANT THE SEE HIM
HAVE TO ISOLATE FOR TWO WEEKS AT
A TIME.