The clock is ticking down to the
start of yet another hurricane season
beginning June 1st and not ending
for six months until November 30th,
but Mother Nature doesn't really
follow a calendar and as a result,
when the conditions are right,
tropical storms and hurricanes can
form outside of the normal season.
Now there's reasoning to why there's
a designated hurricane season,
and that's because 97% of all named
storms occur during this six month.
Window this happens because the atmospheric
and ocean conditions are the most ideal.
We've gotten an abundance
of warm ocean water.
80 degrees Fahrenheit are warmer
moist air seeds of energy ejecting
into the Atlantic off the African
coast and favorable upper level winds
which are influenced by the end.
So phase La Nina, El Nino or neutral.
But sometimes these conditions
will persist long after the season
has ended or become favorable well
before the season even begins.
Now records of tropical systems go
back to 1851 of the offseason months.
Which do you think is the quietest
in terms of tropical activity?
January February March April May or December.
Let's find out even though it may be
the middle of winter at this point.
We've seen named tropical systems in the
Atlantic during the month of January.
The last time this occurred
wasn't all that long ago in 2016,
with the formation of Alex,
which became a category one hurricane.
The strongest hurricane ever
recorded in the month of January.
Any other January storms?
Well, yes,
but we have to travel back
decades to find it.
That was in 1938 hurricane known as
number one formed in the Atlantic.
Now why a number?
No name?
Well,
tropical storms and hurricanes
weren't actually given names
until 1953 in the Atlantic,
and at that time it was just female names.
It wasn't until 1979 that both
male and female names began
being used in in the basin.
Kind of rotating 6 year list.
Now back to the storms.
There was also a tropical storm in
1951 and a subtropical storm in 1978.
Now on to February really the
heart of deep cold over much of
the northern hemisphere at this
point in our seasonal cycle.
Surely this month is pretty quiet.
And yes it is.
But still over that 170 years a
few tropical systems did manage
to form in February.
Thankfully no hurricanes
have ever formed this month.
However,
there has been one tropical storm in 1952,
and this one tracked right
along the US SE coastline.
They call this one the Groundhog Day storm.
There was also a tropical depression in 1911.
Now of those six possible months of those
answers that I said of which one would
be the quietest in terms of offseason months?
Well,
March is the correct answer.
Only one storm since 1851 has
been recorded during the month,
but that storm was quite a doozy.
A category two hurricane in the
year 1908 that became known as
the strongest offseason storm on
record. Now as we're heading into
spring ocean, temperatures are warming.
The northern hemisphere is
now past the vernal equinox.
Days are longer and more heat
energy is available in the oceans
for potential storms April.
As you'd expect,
starts to see an uptick in activity
despite it being technically off season.
There have been seven recorded
storms in April since 1851.
A few of them have occurred rather recently.
In April of 2017, we had our first
name storm of the year, Arlene,
which Max out is a weak tropical storm.
In 2003, we saw Anna develop
and become a tropical storm.
No hurricanes have been recorded in
April though, which is the good news now,
the month before the season officially
starts, sees a huge jump in activity.
55 storms have been recorded in May.
In fact, each year since 2018,
we've had a name.
Storm in the basin during
the month last year,
Anna kicked off the 2021 list,
forming on May 22nd,
becoming a tropical storm.
The start of the most active year on
record 2020 began with Arthur on May 16th,
which became a tropical storm.
Now out of 55 storms,
only six went on to become hurricanes
and none of those occurred this century.
Now let's head to the other
side of the season.
The back end December coming down
off of months of higher sun angles
cooking up the Atlantic waters.
Activity drops off markedly.
Only 12 storms have formed in
December since records began in 1851.
Most recently was 2013.
An unnamed subtropical storm 5
storms did become hurricanes.
Now here are some really
interesting facts from the official
Atlantic Hurricane database.
The first storm to occur
out of season was an 1865,
the year with the most offseason
storms that was in 1887 with a
total of five in seven seasons.
There have been storms both
before and after the season.
Out of all of those storms
that occurred out of season,
how many made landfall?
Now I will say that most do
not make landfall.
Good news most recently
was Tropical Storm Bertha,
which came ashore in 2020 near Isle of Palms,
SC and in 2012,
Tropical Storm Barrel made
landfall near Jacksonville, FL.
Now, as we head into another season,
there are already seasonal outlooks
that point towards an above average
season in terms of activity in the basin.
This is based off of background
conditions that will be favorable.
For development,
most notably a continuation of La Nina,
conditions colder waters off the
Pacific in the Pacific Ocean
for the third season in a row.
Now La Nina conditions reduced the
level of wind shear in the Atlantic.
Lack of wind shear helps storms
remain intact.
Now time will tell with how
this season plays out.
It's important to remember
that it only takes 1.