You really have to see where the puck is going and invest in things
that are going to be value.
Created.
Never forget Newton's law.
You just can't create something from nothing matter, cannot be created
from nothing value, can be created by buy boots on the ground by great
management by great fundamentals and by executing.
So those are the types of businesses people need to need to be
thinking about because they will stand the test of time.
I was around and in the real run up in the 80s and I also was
firsthand running gold mining companies from 2001 to 2012 in the last
big bull run.
We had in gold and there was a lot of things about both.
Those big runs that that were aligning to what's going on in the world
today.
But I think what we're seeing now is more of a perfect storm.
We have the macro political situation, the
Litical, unrest that we see with major superpowers in this world that
creates tension.
And it creates, you know, it has created.
Now, supply chain issues.
It has created a number of other going to spin off effects because of
the Russia and Ukraine situation.
And we have these other major superpowers kind of sitting by and
watching and the supply chain delays have compounded and they affect
CPI, they five or six lockdowns.
And in Canada and the US and then we had and then we had variance that
the continued on.
So for three years now, we've gone through the, the pandemic and we're
now entering kind of that that hyperinflationary environment.
And last year.
I knew that we were going to kind of enter into this because of low
interest rates and because of cost of goods was going up, we were
going to enter into this is big high interest rate this High inflation
period and we didn't really feel it.
Until January because I remember going to the Denver gold show and
I've told the story a couple of times but I remember when the Denver
gold show and goldshire had just started.
We'd start started to trade on June, the 4th of last year, September
Comes First, you know, major conference that people are going to be
there at and it was like a ghost town.
I thought I got the date wrong and yes, covid played a bit of a part
of that.
But I look around and there was like nobody there.
I watch Mark Bristol speak on stage and there's 12.
People in the audience and I think half of them were with the Denver
Gold group.
You walk down the hallway and there was no investors and it really
started to hit me.
Yes, I get it.
Maybe I maybe I called it a little early.
I didn't call it wrong.
I may be called a little early because the market was doing twenty
percent last year and a number of asset classes and gold was flat.
It did its job in that kind of environment.
The gold equities really got hammered.
They were down.
Percent, 25 percent.
So last year's story.
Nobody cared about you could have a good story like gold Shore and
nobody cared about it.
And that really kind of rang true until kind of November and December.
We saw run up and gold price in a pullback.
We saw a run up and gold price and that will pull back.
But in January we heard the first kind of I word and that was
inflation.
We heard Q3 was six point, seven percent seven percent, the u.s.
CPI and then we heard about December being seven.
Percent and and carried on, in January, in the that inflationary
situation made me believe that.
Now you're going to see these asset classes that are highly affected
by inflation because of Transportation, or fuel, or oil, or cost of
goods or labor.
All of those sectors, whether their consumer products consumer,
discretionary to a lesser degree real estate, but certainly
transportation and, and to a lesser degree Tech, but they're also,
But you're going to see money roll out of those asset classes and go
somewhere, and it was the flight to safety.
And then the geopolitical tensions happened in February and then
everything kind of started kind of Crescendo.
But what happened was just when the the asset classes were going to
change and we're going to see his big rotation of capital come out and
I can talk about the 10, the 10 year treasury in the bond market, you
know, also 5% - rate of return which is not sustainable.
You're going to see a rotation of the capital come out of those asset
classes where they going to go well in the 80s and and 2000's, they
came to precious metals.
They came to Gold, we came to Gold equities and we saw really nice run
up from from 2001 of 250 gold all the way up to Nineteen Hundred
dollar gold in 2011.
So we saw that really big run-up and gold equities followed suit and
gold, equities are trading at a premium that but today in February.
We saw that big risk off because
The geopolitical situation, a lot of the funds just just, just went
completely risk-off.
And even though there's a number of other kind of macro, social things
like electrification, and decarbonization and, and the push to get
there.
Everything basically stopped in March.
And and nothing really happened with the gold price.
Nothing really happened as the market was extremely volatile, you
know, up 900 points down 700 points up, 600 put there was a lot of
volatility.
We saw it in April.
Now we saw that
At correction.
So now I believe we're entering into this time of, we're all the
planets are aligning.
The war is going to work its way out.
It's going they're going to work a solution is not going to be a month
is probably going to be 6 months or it's going to be nine months, but
there has to be a solution for this.
But we're going to wake up in June.
We're going to see 10% inflation and there's no other way to combat
that loss of value than storage of wealth and gold and gold.
Equities because
Average to gold price and companies like ours, who are going to double
and triple and potentially more the resource-based.
It's a big leverage play to the gold price.
So that's my view on the macro and why?
I think we're entering this time now, where there's going to be a
fairly strong kind of movement into into our sector.
You have to be very close.
And to, to world events.
You have to understand what's going on in this world.
And you have to take a view of
How it is going to affect things in the future and, you know, to our
great hockey star of years gone past Wayne Gretzky.
He said I'd always go to where the puck is going to be not where it
is.
And that you have to think that way in our in investing, you have to
understand the impact of what is going on around the world today, how
it's going to impact, you know, not just a year from now or two years
from now, but what is this going to look like five years?
Now, everybody has taken a really, really harsh view of mining over
the years.
And that's a generalization, but there's been a lot of popes stick
spoke that at mining over the years and then there was a jump on
climate change and yes mining has traditionally been very, very carbon
put positive but there was the decarbonization initiative and there's
also the electric grid, electrification of vehicles initiative.
How do people think we're going to get there without mining.
We're actually
Ali going to have to increase mining by by percentages what way
greater than what we're doing today, to achieve the decarbonization
goals in the world by 2030 and 2040, in some countries and the
electrification of vehicles where you need battery minerals, like
nickel and Cobalt and manganese and and lithium, and these minerals
are not abundant, but they're available and the ramp up to, you know,
complete.
The electrification process, and there's always going to be, you know,
there's always going to be some sort of fuel based carbon-based view
of vehicles out there.
But these Technologies these these these emerging kind of disruptive
Technologies.
They change the way you should be investing today.
For five years to know, people need to have a longer view of things
and let things, let value be created.
Not you know, trading a with a, a
ADHD and trading on changing markets, trying to be at your own
algorithm.
Just doesn't work.
You'll lose.
Every time I invest in businesses that are solid, that will stand the
test of time and that I think have fundamental fundamentally kind of
sound principles and good management, you know, you always invest in
the people that are running these businesses.
So electrification of vehicles, you know, I have a real tough time
investing in something like
Slow, given, you know, the valuation that it was trading at.
And so, all these things, I think what we're doing in the mining space
oil and gas, and, and other, you know, Carbon businesses what we're
doing in that space, how it's going to affect electrification, and the
geopolitical pull back, and I'm going to talk about something a little
bit new going from
almost protectionism.
We're starting to see it and any we're starting to see, you know,
critical mineral strategy in the u.s.
Critical minerals strategy.
In other parts of the world.
China has been doing this for a long time.
We're going to hoard all the minerals that's going to take to
Electrify.
So we protect our self, that is a bit of a different step than we've
seen globally, over the past five or six years.
As we've tried to make these steps towards decarbonization and impacts
on climate change.
So, I think,
Ink were, I think the advice is quite simple.
You really have to see where the pucks going and invest in things that
are going to be value.
Created.
Never forget Newton's law.
You just can't create something from nothing matter, cannot be created
from nothing value, can be created by buy boots on the ground by great
management by great fundamentals and by executing.
So those are the types of businesses.
People need to need to be thinking about because they will stand the
test of time.
I don't
a stomach for up, 20% down, 20% up, 20% down.
15%, you know, on a weekly basis on a monthly basis.
As I don't have the stomach for that.
I want to see something that's $20 today.
Go to a hundred dollars in five years.