Speaker 1: I come to you today to tell you that Chris Christie's polling is now up 150% since he
announced he was running for president. However, this puts him at two and a half. So, listen,
percentage wise, things are going in the right direction for Chris Christie. The clearly the
most sane and rational person running in the 2024 Republican primary. But is it going to be enough?
I don't know. So let's take a look at some data. Chris Christie announced that he was running on
June 6th, but we learned that he was running on May 31st, June 1st. So we're going to look at how
polling has changed for the Republican candidates, the top ones between June 1st and today. Trump,
for example, was at 53 when Christie announced, and he is now at 52. So Trump is down 2% since
Christie's announcement, DeSantis is totally flat at absolutely flat, totally not woke at
all. DeSantis was at 22 and he's still at 22. So he has not seen any polling change. Mike Pence was
at four but is now at six. Pence has gained 50%, Nikki Haley unchanged four and four. Tim Scott was
at 2%, Now polling 4%. He has gained 100% support, doubling it. And then there is Chris Christie
who was polling 1%, announced his candidacy and is now polling 2.5%. That is a gain of 150%
percent. Now, am I being serious? Well, I'm being serious, but I'm also going to be honest with you
about small numbers. Small numbers in general can be inaccurate or meaningless in exactly
these sorts of situations when you're looking at changes because such small numbers can be
affected by rounding, they can be affected by data truncation, they can be affected by inflation,
context, sample size. So for example, if someone goes up from 1 to 2% in polling, it's technically
an increase of 100%. You've gone from 1 to 2. It's mostly meaningless because these numbers
are so small that they really may not reflect the preferences of the population. And these
small changes can easily be influenced by random error measurement uncertainty. Sampling bias,
etc.. So you do get rid of a little bit of this by using averages of polls, which we are doing.
Is Chris Christie gaining? I believe Chris Christie is gaining. But to say that he has
really gained 150% support since his announcement maybe is a bit further than we can go. What we
are starting to get a picture of, and this is really important, is that it may not be so simple
to significantly shift massive amounts of support in the Republican primary. Trump's
now been indicted twice. DeSantis went from a potential candidate to a real candidate.
Trump's basically flat. DeSantis is basically flat. Nobody else is polling any more than 6%.
So if there's any real takeaway right now, forget about, oh, they were at one, now they're at three
or whatever the case may be. The big takeaway for me is that it is proving difficult to see
significant moves in Republican voters. The next milestone, of course, becomes, well, number one,
does Trump get indicted between July and September in Georgia? And number two, in late August,
the first Republican primary debate will take place on Fox News. Bret BAIER will be hosting
it. Does Trump show up to that debate and does the debate performance actually shift
the numbers in any serious way? We have plenty of time to think about that. This is where the
polling is today. We're going to take the quickest break. Make sure you're subscribed on YouTube at
YouTube.com, slash the David Paxman show. And the show will simply continue in a moment.