As we reported earlier, It was another day of grizzly attacks on
civilians and Ukraine as Russian forces struck a train station in
the central region of the country, killing and wounding dozens. That
strike coincides with Ukraine's Independence Day and comes exactly
six months since the start of the war. It was a stark reminder of
the brutal fight already waged and the battle ahead.
Residents in Kiev awoke to the usual whales of air raid sirens.
But an unusual parade featuring destroyed Russian tanks rolled through
downtown as Ukraine marked its first independence Day since Russia's
invasion, a show of defiance six months into the war. In a poetic
address to his nation, Ukrainian President Zelensky promised victory
a new nation that emerged on February 24th at four AM not born but
reborn Nation that didn't cry didn't scream didn't get scared? Didn't
run away. Didn't give up didn't forget?
Police flag will be everywhere. It should be by right both in Donbas
and Crimea. But the war has been costly in western Ukraine, another
tearful goodbye to a fallen fighter.
The past six months have been brutal and bloody Mario Pole now a
city obliterated a theater, sheltering women and Children bombed
a maternity hospital attacked and the suburban town of Buja, the
scene of Russian war crimes with residents, including Children killed
and dumped in mass graves. According to the United Nations. 5587
civilians have been killed and 7890 have been injured between February
24th and
Just 22nd.
A third of Ukraine's 41 million people have fled their homes. 6.6
million now living as refugees across Europe. Ukraine's armed forces
report almost 9000. Ukrainian military personnel have also been killed
in the war. The losses are heavy on the Russian side, too, but casualties
are a state secret. US intelligence estimates that some 15,000 have
been killed so far.
Western sanctions have hit hard. Last month, Russia defaulted on
its foreign bonds for the first time in a century, but Russia's oil
revenues have increased by 11% in June as Europe struggles to phase
out Russian oil. The United States with its NATO and EU allies, all
continue to stand behind Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
met President Zelinsky and Kiev and vowed to continue helping Ukraine
by Russia.
Did Putin will to succeed?
No country on Russia's perimeter would be safe, and if Putin succeeds,
it would be a green light to every autocrats in the world, a signal
that borders can be changed by force. Russia launched the war by
attacking Ukraine from the north, south and east headed toward Kiev
but was pushed back by Ukraine.
Six months on intense fighting continues along front lines in the
country's east and south. Russia has now occupied nearly 20% of Ukrainian
territory. But even as the war enters a prolonged phase, Ukraine
says victory is the only option. We will put our hands up only once,
when we celebrate our victory the whole of Ukraine because we do
not trade our lands and our people for us. Ukraine is all of Ukraine.
To further discuss how Ukraine will use this latest package of US
weapons assistance where the war stands now and how it may evolve.
We turn to Kier Giles He's a senior consulting fellow at Chatham
House, the London based policy Institute. Curdles Welcome, And Thanks
for joining us, we are marking six months in a war that wasn't supposed
to last this long. I mean, many people thought it would be over within
a matter of days. When you think back six months ago did you think
the war would still be going on today?
No, I was one of those people. That was surprised that Russia did
not fight the war that it had been training and equipping itself
for and instead blundered into entirely at the drum kind of conflict
and fighting it the wrong way and was repulsed by this dog did Ukrainian
resistance. I thought that Russia would complete the conflict in
a number of days in exactly the way that they had been.
Practicing and gearing up to do so. The fact that Ukraine now six
months down, the track is still celebrating its independence Day
as an independent nation is a terrific achievement and let's not
forget. Part of that, of course, is through Russia's own self inflicted
injuries and the way that they have fallen victim to their own propaganda
in the very early stages of this conflict, thinking that Ukrainians
would greet them with flowers instead of javelins.
You mentioned Ukraine being able to repulse that initial Russian
advance. But what is the landscape today? Have we seen a meaningful
counter offensive by Ukrainian forces?
The counter offensive, particularly in the south, and that Khorasan
region has been promised now for weeks, and a lot of people are disappointed
that they're not seeing the frontline moving. They're not seeing
this. Ukrainian advances pushing Russian forces back now Ukraine
argues that the counter offensive is taking place in a different
way. All of this erosion of Russian military power by striking deep
behind Russian lines by targeting logistics, airfields, and so on
is in fact Ukraine fighting back and of course, Ukraine has to be
Be sure that when it does mount finally moved to push
Russia out of those occupied regions. It can do so without being
observed by Russia, whether being targeted by Russian artillery,
So the preparation work that we see going into Ukraine's attempts
to liberate its occupied territories should be expected to last for
some time. Yet, of course, in a way it's already been successful.
The promise of an offensive in the South has drawn Russian troops
away from where they were advancing in the east of the country in
the Donbass region, where those advances have stopped, so in a way
Ukraine has already succeed.
Needed.
So the front line seems as if it's static, right? Correct me if I'm
wrong? Is Russia continuing to seize any additional territory at
this stage?
The front line has been surprisingly static for a considerable amount
of time that, but of course, that doesn't mean that military operations
are continuing. This war has been through several very distinct phases,
and it's lurched from despair to optimism for Ukraine along the way,
and what marks this current phase is the way in which Ukraine can
reach out and touch areas which Russia might have thought were safe.
It's those long range strike too deep into the rear, which, of course,
having an effect not only on Russia's fighting potential, but
Also on Russians themselves. We shouldn't underestimate the psychological
impact When people who are on beach holidays in Crimea suddenly see
that they are not in a safe area and reality collides with the picture.
They've been sold by Russian state television of what Russia calls
as the special military operation, which, according to Russia is
going perfectly according to plan.
What about this latest round of US support $3 billion in security
assistance, President Biden announced today the largest aid package
in the sixth months of war. Is it enough?
There will never be enough to be to satisfy all of Ukraine's demands
and everything that Ukraine could absorb. The simple fact of high
intensity warfare. Ongoing in Europe means it could suck in vast
amounts of military equipment from from all of the NATO militaries
and still possibly not be satisfied. But what Ukraine has demonstrated
isn't Canfield military support extremely rapidly? They're fighting
a desperate war of national survival. And so any assistance that
is provided gets used.
In the most effective way in the rust, Rapid way possible.
At the same time. Of course, you have to plan for the long term because
even if this current conflict is resolved, they have to be longer
term plans for ensuring that Ukraine can defend itself against Russia
in the future as well. So when it's tempting to interpret some of
the supplies that are just being announced in this most recent crunch
as preparing Russia for the current offensive that everybody's been
expecting, Of course, we keep need to keep an eye to the longer term
as well.
So what about that longer term? I mean, US officials. European officials
continue to say Putin's theory of victory here is that he can wait
everyone out, but eventually us NATO EU support will dwindle. Do
you think that risk is there?
In a way that's the same risk as Ukraine has faced right from day
one of this conflict or even beforehand. It's keeping all of Ukraine's
backers and supporters in Europe and in North America on site so
that they can provide the support that's needed. And of course, that's
not just military support and weapons supplies. It's also economic
and humanitarian support to keep Ukraine functioning as a state and
the Ukrainian economy going while it's under this stranglehold by
Russia. Now, all of that is going to become even more a challenge
as we head
Into winter, and the real effect of the price spikes in energy that
have been brought about by Russian energy blackmail make themselves
felt among European populations. It's going to be harder and harder
to resist your Ukraine fatigue and, most importantly, to resist those
calls for Ukraine to make some kind of concession, some kind of agreement
to a ceasefire to end the fighting and relieve the economic pressure
on the rest of the world.
For Ukraine. Of course, that would be disastrous because it would
effectively be surrender and abandoning those occupied territories
and the people who live there to this brutal Russian oversight. Giles
senior consulting fellow for Chatham House, joining us tonight. Thank
you for your time.